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Encyclopedia > 2008 U.S. presidential election
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Presidential electoral votes by state

The 2008 United States Presidential election will occur on November 4, 2008. The allocation of electoral votes to each state will remain the same for this election as it was for the election in 2004, relying on the 2000 Census.

Presidential Candidate Electoral Vote Popular Vote Pct Party Running Mate
(Electoral Votes)
           
Other elections: 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020
Source: U.S. Office of the Federal Register (http://www.archives.gov/federal_register/electoral_college/scores.html#2004)
Contents
1 The shape of presidential battles
2 Timeline
3 Candidates who may be pursuing a 2008 candidacy
4 Potential candidates for nomination in 2008

4.1 Democrats
4.2 Republicans
4.3 Libertarians
4.4 Greens
4.5 Constitution
4.6 Other parties and independents

5 Possible Constitutional amendments
6 Opinion polling
7 General Election
8 Democratic Candidate
9 Republican Candidate
10 Related topics
11 External Links

The shape of presidential battles

Recent elections have revolved around the dominant Democratic and Republican parties, although many candidates seek election to the presidency. In recent presidential elections, however, minor parties such as the Green, Libertarian, and Reform parties, as well as Ross Perot's 1992 independent candidacy, have occasionally had a significant impact on both the tone of the campaigns and sometimes the outcome of the election. Modern third parties allow a broad choice to voters who are not satisified that their views are represented by either of the major parties. They raise the potential of affecting the outcome in close races by pulling votes away from one major party that might have gone to it if the ballot didn't include those alternatives and thereby potentially leading to victory for the other major party less affected by appeal of a particular third party to its voter base. Some political observers believe that in the 2000 race the extremely close vote total balance between Republicans and Democrats in Florida was affected by the votes that went instead to other parties and that the outcome might have been different if they were not on the ballot.


In 2008, President Bush will be prohibited from seeking a third term by Amendment XXII to the U.S. Constitution. In the last three eight-year administrations, the incumbent vice president has gone on to run for president at the end of the eight years: Dwight D. Eisenhower's vice president Richard Nixon in the 1960 election, Ronald Reagan's vice president George H. W. Bush in the 1988 election and Bill Clinton's vice president Al Gore in the 2000 election.


However, current Vice President Dick Cheney announced in 2001 that he would never run for President. Assuming that George W. Bush, who was re-elected in 2004, remains in office through 2008, then the 2008 race will be a non-incumbent election; that is, one in which a sitting president is not a candidate. Furthermore, the 2008 race will apparently be the first time since 1952 and only the second time since 1928 that neither the sitting president nor the sitting vice-president is a candidate for president.


This has led to some speculation that Cheney might be replaced as vice president at some point to establish someone else as an "heir apparent" for the Republicans in 2008; although Cheney was nominated and elected for the vice presidency in the 2004 election, he could still well resign before November 2008, most likely citing lingering health concerns. This scenario is perhaps made somewhat more likely by the concurrent retention by the Republicans of both houses of Congress, since Amendment XXV requires the confirmation of any replacement Vice President by both houses of Congress, not just the Senate as is typically the case with Presidential appointees. Regardless, depending on the success or failure of an eight-year Bush presidency, the Republicans would have the option of running a candidate who promised to continue Bush's policy, a candidate who repudiated Bush's policies and promoted a different policy agenda, or someone who followed some but not all of the Bush political platform and agenda.


For the Democrats, the Bush re-election in 2004 gives them a broad freedom to choose a 2008 candidate and platform.


Timeline

Candidates of the Constitution, Democratic, Green, Libertarian, Republican, and possibly other parties may begin making their plans known as early as 2005. If current election laws remain unchanged, a few important dates are already known:

  • 2006-2007 The fundraising race.

Candidates who can raise substantial money early may attract more media attention. That attention could translate in stronger voter identification and upward movement in the polls and, as the cycle repeats, could lead to separation from a crowded field of possibles. Because of this dynamic there may be several candidates who try to start earlier than usual and benefit from the early attention. An early start helped Howard Dean rise from unknown to contender to front-runner. Some of the better known candidates can afford to wait longer, confident in their fundraising ability and voter identification, to give more time to judge the field and whether they want to run in 2008 or wait for 2012.

  • 2008

Beginning in January, the first contests are held in Iowa (caucus) and New Hampshire (primary) and perhaps other states. Nomination process unfolds through at least March and perhaps as late as June. Party conventions in late summer/early fall.

Candidates who may be pursuing a 2008 candidacy

While it is rare for candidates to officially declare their candidacy prior to late in the year preceding the presidential election (in this case, 2007), a number of activities are commonly seen as indicative of active exploration of a presidential campaign. These include prominent statements of non-committal to a run, meetings with prominent national party fundraisers, and speaking engagements in the early primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire. However, some major 2008 contenders are sure not to make these activities visible, instead preparing their campaigns behind the scenes, while many others may not actively begin their campaign activity until after the 2006 mid-term elections.


Some of the candidates (also listed below) who have engaged in typical pre-candidacy activites:


Democrats:

  • Joe Biden, U.S. senator from Delaware. On December 8, 2004, Biden announced to radio host Don Imus: "I'm going to proceed as if I'm going to run."
  • Wesley Clark, United States Four-Star Army General (retired), former NATO Supreme Allied Commander and 2004 nomination candidate (Arkansas). On January 4, 2005 (and several times since, and more enthusiastically), Clark declared he had "Ruled nothing out." Wes Clark continues to operate WesPAC in support of Democratic candidates, and speak and act in myriad fora.
  • Hillary Clinton, U.S. senator from New York and former First Lady of the United States. Clinton has been making a number of speeches taking moderate positions on abortion, immigration and faith-based initiatives in an apparent attempt to dispel her reputation as being too liberal. [1] (http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/24/politics/25cnd-clinton.html?ei=5065&en=2ea311e2ab8121f3&ex=1107234000&partner=MYWAY&pagewanted=print&position=) Rumors have, in fact, set Senator Clinton for the '08 election for several years, though there was significant buzz in the idea of her running for President or Vice President in 2004 as well.
  • John Edwards, former U.S. senator from North Carolina and 2004 vice-presidential candidate. Edwards is scheduled to headline the "100 Club Dinner," a major February 2005 Democratic fund-raiser in New Hampshire.
  • Russ Feingold, U.S. senator from Wisconsin, announced to a meeting of the Tiger Bay Club of Volusia County, Florida, in January 2005 that he was considering a run for the nomination, and would decide after "going around the country" to campaign for fellow Democrats running for other offices.[2] (http://www.news-journalonline.com/NewsJournalOnline/News/WestVolusia/03WVolWEST08POL012905.htm)
  • John Kerry, U.S. senator from Massachusetts and 2004 presidential candidate. Kerry visited Iowa in December 2004 to thank campaign supporters.

Republicans:

Libertarians:

Potential candidates for nomination in 2008

Numerous names have been floated as possible candidates for President or Vice President in 2008.


Democrats

Republicans

Libertarians

Greens

Constitution

Other parties and independents

It is also conceivable that a candidate for a major party nomination who did not win that nomination might seek the presidency as an other party or independent candidate; contemporary examples include John B. Anderson, Republican nomination candidate and Independent general election candidate in the 1980 election, and Buchanan, Republican nomination candidate in the 1992, 1996 and initially prospective candidate in the 2000 election primaries but then Reform Party general election candidate in the 2000 election.


Possible Constitutional amendments

There has been some discussion recently of amending the Constitution to remove the absolute requirement that only natural-born citizens may become President. It would require 2/3rds favorable votes by both houses of congress and ratification by 3/4ths of the states. This proposal has been advanced 26 times since the 1870's without even moving to a congressional floor vote. In the extremely unlikely event that a strong consensus developed and the amendment won swift enough passage to allow such a change to occur in time for the 2008 elections, possible candidates for President or Vice President who are naturalized citizens and who have lived in the United States a minimum length of time (20 years in Senator Orrin Hatch's proposal) would include Democratic Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm, born in Canada; Republican Secretary of Commerce-designate Carlos Gutierrez, born in Cuba; Republican Secretary of Labor Elaine Chao, born in Taiwan; Democratic former Secretary of State Madeline Albright, born in Czechoslovakia;



 
 

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