NOAA Projected arctic changes

Polar ice packs are large areas of pack ice formed from seawater in the Earth's polar regions, known as polar ice caps: the Arctic ice pack (or Arctic ice cap) of the Arctic Ocean and the Antarctic ice pack of the Southern Ocean, a part of the Antarctic ice sheet. Polar packs signicifantly change their size during seasonal changes of the year. Because of vast anounts of water added to or removed from the oceans and atmosphere, the behavior of polar ice packs have a significant impact of the global changes in climate. Image File history File links Arctic_Ice_Thickness. ... Image File history File links Arctic_Ice_Thickness. ... The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is a scientific agency of the United States Department of Commerce focused on the conditions of the oceans and the atmosphere. ... An icebreaker navigates some through young (1 year) sea ice Sea ice is formed from ocean water that freezes. ... Annual mean sea surface temperature for the World Ocean. ... Adjectives: Terrestrial, Terran, Telluric, Tellurian, Earthly Atmosphere Surface pressure: 101. ... Location of the polar regions Earths polar regions are the areas of the globe surrounding the poles, north of the Arctic circle, or south of the Antarctic Circle. ... This does not cite its references or sources. ... A satellite composite image of Antarctica The Antarctic ice sheet is the largest single mass of ice on Earth. ... View of Jupiters active atmosphere, including the Great Red Spot. ...

In spring and summer, when melting occurs, the margins of the sea ice retreat. The vast bulk of the world's sea ice forms in the Arctic ocean and the Southern Ocean, around Antarctica. The Antarctic ice cover is highly seasonal, with very little ice in the austral summer, expanding to an area roughly equal to that of Antarctica in winter. Consequently, most Antarctic sea ice is first year ice, up to 1 meter thick. The situation in the Arctic is very different (a polar sea surrounded by land, as opposed to a polar continent surrounded by sea) and the seasonal variation much less, consequently much Arctic sea ice is multi-year ice, and thicker: up to 3–4 meters thick over large areas, with ridges up to 20 meters thick.

The amount of sea ice around the poles in winter varies from the Antarctic with 18,000,000 sq km to the Arctic with 15,000,000 sq km. The amount melted each summer is affected by the different environments: the cold Antarctic pole is over land so sea ice is around edge, and the Antarctic sea ice is in the freely-circulating Southern Ocean.

Climatic importance

Sea ice has an important effect on the heat balance of the polar oceans, since it acts to insulate the (relatively) warm ocean from the much colder air above, thus reducing heat loss from the oceans. Especially when covered with snow, sea ice has a high albedo — about 0.8 — and thus the ice also affects the absorption of sunlight at the surface. The sea ice cycle is also an important source of dense (saline) "bottom water". While freezing, water rejects its salt content (leaving pure ice) and the remaining surface, made dense by the extra salinity sinks, leading to the productions of dense water masses, such as Antarctic Bottom Water. This production of dense water is a factor in maintaining the thermohaline circulation, and the accurate representation of these processes is an additional difficulty to climate modelling. Albedo is a ratio of scattered to incident electromagnetic radiation power. ... An oceanographic water mass is an identifiable body of water which has physical properties distinct from surrounding water. ... Categories: Possible copyright violations ... The thermohaline circulation is a term for the global density-driven circulation of the oceans. ... Climate models use quantitative methods to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and ice. ...

In the Arctic, a key area where pancake ice forms the dominant ice type over an entire region is the so-called Odden ice tongue in the Greenland Sea. The Odden (the word is Norwegian for headland) grows eastward from the main East Greenland ice edge in the vicinity of 72–74°N during the winter because of the presence of very cold polar surface water in the Jan Mayen Current, which diverts some water eastward from the East Greenland Current at that latitude. Most of the old ice continues south, driven by the wind, so a cold open water surface is exposed on which new ice forms as frazil and pancake in the rough seas. The salt rejected back into the ocean from this ice formation causes the surface water to become more dense and sink, sometimes to great depths (2500 m or more), making this one of the few regions of the ocean where winter convection occurs, which helps drive the entire worldwide system of surface and deep currents known as the thermohaline circulation. The Greenland Sea exists next to the Norwegian Sea. ... The East Greenland Current originates in the Arctic Ocean and brings cold, low salinity, Southbound water along the East Coast of Greenland. ...

Extent and trends of polar ice packs

Monthly mean ice area, northern and southern hemispheres, in square meters, 1979–2003, showing the annual cycle in the two hemispheres. Blue is NH, black is SH.

Sea ice extent and trend for September in the Northern Hemisphere

Arctic sea ice extent for 2002-05 as compared to 1979–2000.

Reliable measurements of sea ice edge begin within the satellite era. From the late 1970s, the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) on Seasat (1978) and Nimbus 7 (1978–87) satellites provided information that was independent of solar illumination or meteorological conditions. The frequency and accuracy of passive microwave measurements improved with the launch of the DMSP F8 Special Sensor Microwave/Imager SSMI in 1987. Sea ice area in square meters, for northern and southern hemispheres. ... Sea ice area in square meters, for northern and southern hemispheres. ... Sea ice extent trend for the Northern Hemisphere. ... Sea ice extent trend for the Northern Hemisphere. ... The Northern Hemisphere is the half of a planets surface (or celestial sphere) that is north of the equator (the word hemisphere literally means half ball). On the Earth, the Northern Hemisphere contains most of the land and about 88-90% of the human population. ... Image File history File links Download high-resolution version (1160x710, 65 KB) File links The following pages on the English Wikipedia link to this file (pages on other projects are not listed): Sea ice ... Image File history File links Download high-resolution version (1160x710, 65 KB) File links The following pages on the English Wikipedia link to this file (pages on other projects are not listed): Sea ice ... The Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) [pronounced simmer] was a 5-frequency radiometer first flown on the Seasat and Nimbus 7 satellites. ... Seasat (Courtesy NASA/JPL-Caltech) Seasat was the first Earth-orbiting satellite designed for remote sensing of the Earths oceans and had onboard the first spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR). ... The Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) is a seven-channel, four-frequency, linearly polarized passive microwave radiometric system. ...

The trends since 1979 have been a statistically significant Arctic decrease and an Antarctic increase that is probably not significant, depending exactly on which time period is used. The Arctic trends of −2.5% ± 0.9% per decade; or about 3% per decade^[1]. Climate models simulate this trend^[2], and attribute it to anthropogenic forcing. The September ice extent trend for 1979–2004 is declining by 7.7% per decade^[3]. In September 2002, sea ice in the Arctic reached a record minimum^[4], 4% lower than any previous September since 1978, and 14% lower than the 1978–2000 mean. In the past, a low ice year would be followed by a rebound to near-normal conditions, but 2002 has been followed by two more low-ice years, both of which almost matched the 2002 record. The Antarctic increase is 0.8% per decade^[5] although this depends on the period being considered. Vinnikov et al^[6] find the NH reduction to be statistically significant but the SH trend is not. For the Smashing Pumpkins song, see 1979 (song). ...

Scientific parameter to quantify the extent of sea ice

In a modelling study of the 52-year period from 1948 to 1999 Rothrock and Zhang (2005) find a statistically significant trend in Arctic ice volume of −3% per decade; splitting this into wind-forced and temperature forced components shows it to be essentially all caused by the temperature forcing. Image File history File links Ice-floe_params_hg. ... Image File history File links Ice-floe_params_hg. ...

In the overall mass balance, the volume of sea ice depends on the thickness of the ice as well as the areal extent. While the satellite era has enabled better measurement of trends in areal extent, accurate ice thickness measurements remain a challenge.

Summer melting

Spring melt off Alaska north shore.

Extent of the Arctic ice-pack in September, 1978–2002.

Extent of the Arctic ice-pack in February, 1978–2002.

In the Arctic, the overlying snow layer typically begins to melt from late May to early June. Melting of the snowcover leads to the development of melt ponds (meltwater pools)on the surface of the ice. On first year ice, which has a smooth upper surface at the end of winter (except where ridged), the pools are initially very shallow, forming in minor depressions in the ice surface, or simply being retained within surviving snow pack as a layer of slush. As summer proceeds, however, this initial random structure becomes more fixed as the pools melt their way down into the ice through preferential absorption of solar radiation by the water, which reflects only 15–40% of the radiation falling on it compared to 40–70% for bare ice. Download high resolution version (1788x1176, 1090 KB)Crepuscular rays illuminate the melting ice of the Beaufort Sea Source NOAA Photo Library Image ID: corp1104, NOAA Corps Collection Location: Oliktok Point, Alaska North Slope Photo Date: Spring 1950 Photographer: Rear Admiral Harley D. Nygren, NOAA Corps (ret. ... Download high resolution version (1788x1176, 1090 KB)Crepuscular rays illuminate the melting ice of the Beaufort Sea Source NOAA Photo Library Image ID: corp1104, NOAA Corps Collection Location: Oliktok Point, Alaska North Slope Photo Date: Spring 1950 Photographer: Rear Admiral Harley D. Nygren, NOAA Corps (ret. ... Official language(s) English Capital Juneau Largest city Anchorage Area  Ranked 1st  - Total 663,267 sq mi (1,717,855 km²)  - Width 808 miles (1,300 km)  - Length 1,479 miles (2,380 km)  - % water 13. ... Extent of the Arctic ice-pack in September 1978-2002 Licensed for use in accordance with the GFDL. This map was initially created using this tool, then adapted, by hand, to recreate the boundaries from the images on this site. ... Extent of the Arctic ice-pack in September 1978-2002 Licensed for use in accordance with the GFDL. This map was initially created using this tool, then adapted, by hand, to recreate the boundaries from the images on this site. ... Download high resolution version (976x974, 97 KB)Arctic ice-pack in February Licensed for use in accordance with the GFDL. This map was initially created using this tool, then adapted, by hand, to recreate the boundaries from the images on this site. ... Download high resolution version (976x974, 97 KB)Arctic ice-pack in February Licensed for use in accordance with the GFDL. This map was initially created using this tool, then adapted, by hand, to recreate the boundaries from the images on this site. ... Melt ponds are pools of open water that form on sea ice - principally arctic sea ice - in spring and summer. ... Solar irradiance spectrum at top of atmosphere. ...

As the melt pools grow deeper and wider they may eventually drain off into the sea, over the side of floes, through existing cracks, or by melting a thaw hole right through the ice at its thinnest point or at the melt pool's deepest point. The downrush of water when a thaw hole opens may be quite violent, and on very level ice, such as fast ice, a single thaw hole may drain a large area of ice surface. From the air such thaw holes give the appearance of "giant spiders", with the "body" being the thaw hole and the "legs" channels of melt water draining laterally towards the hole.

The underside of the ice cover also responds to the surface melt. Directly underneath melt pools the ice is thinner and is absorbing more incoming radiation. This causes an enhanced rate of bottom melt so that the ice bottom develops a topography of depressions to mirror the melt pool distribution on the top side. In this way an initially smooth first-year ice sheet acquires by the end of summer an undulating topography both on its top and bottom sides. Some of the drained melt water may in fact gather in the underside depressions to form under-ice melt pools, which refreeze in autumn and partially smooth off the underside, leaving it with bulges but not depressions.

Extent of the Arctic ice-pack 2002–2004 (NSIDC)

A final and most important role of the melt water is that some of it works its way down through the ice fabric through minor pores, veins and channels, and in doing so drives out much of the remaining brine. This process, called flushing, is the most efficient and rapid form of brine drainage mechanism, and it operates to remove nearly all of the remaining brine from the first-year ice. The hydrostatic head of the surface meltwater provides the driving force, but an interconnecting network of pores is necessary for the flushing process to operate. Given that the strength properties of sea ice depend on the brine volume, this implies that the flushing mechanism creates a surviving ice sheet which during its second winter of existence has much greater strength than in its first winter. The National Snow and Ice Data Center, or NSIDC, is a United States information and referral center in support of polar and cryospheric research. ... NOAA image of ice-pack - September 2002 Source From National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) http://www. ... NOAA image of ice-pack - September 2003 Source National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) http://www. ... NOAA image of ice-pack - September 2004 Source From National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) http://www. ...

See also

• Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch.

The US Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB) is part of the Environmental Modeling Center, which is responsible for the development of improved numerical weather and marine prediction modeling systems within NCEP/NWS. It provides analysis and real-time forecast guidance (1-16 days) on marine meteorological, oceanographic, and cryospheric...

External links

• Ice in the Sea, chapter from Nathaniel Bowditch's American Practical Navigator.
• Cryosphere Today: current Arctic sea ice conditions.
• Data source for sea ice picture.
• Everything you ever wanted to know about sea ice but were afraid to ask.
• Animation of the movement of sea ice, September 2003 through May of 2004.
• NSIDC Sea Ice Index.
• Arctic summer time: The short summer of 2004. North Pole webcam view.
• Global Sea Ice Extent and Concentration: what sensors on satellites are telling us about sea ice.
• "Arctic ice 'disappearing quickly'", BBC News, 28 September 2005.