The term Bradley effect or Wilder effect refers to a phenomenon which has led to inaccurate voter opinion polls in some American political campaigns between a white candidate and a non-white candidate.^[1][2] Specifically, there have been instances in which statistically significant numbers of white voters tell pollsters in advance of an election that they are either genuinely undecided, or likely to vote for the non-white candidate, but those voters exhibit a different behavior when actually casting their ballots. White voters who said that they were undecided break in statistically large numbers toward the white candidate, and many of the white voters who said that they were likely to vote for the black candidate ultimately cast their ballot for the white candidate. This reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes extended to post-election exit polls as well. Opinion polls are surveys of opinion using sampling. ... A political campaign is an effort to reach a certain political goal. ... Caucasian is originally a geographical term, meaning relative or pertaining to the Caucasus region of eastern Europe. ... A minority or subordinate group is a sociological group that does not constitute a politically dominant plurality of the total population of a given society. ... An exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. ...

Researchers have theorized that some white voters have felt a societal pressure not to declare their support for a white candidate in such a race, fearing that by doing so, they might appear to others to be racially prejudiced.^[3] 1. ...

Origin

The original term Bradley effect derives its name from a 1982 campaign involving Tom Bradley, the long-time mayor of Los Angeles, California. Bradley, who was black, ran for Governor of California against George Deukmejian, who was white. The polls leading into the day of the election consistently showed Bradley with a lead.^[4] However, Bradley narrowly lost the race. Post-election research indicated that a smaller percentage of white voters actually voted for Bradley than that which had said they planned to vote for him, and that voters who had been classified as "undecided" had gone to Deukmejian in statistically anomalous numbers.^[2] 1982 (MCMLXXXII) was a common year starting on Friday of the Gregorian calendar. ... Mayor Tom Bradley of Los Angeles, 1973-1993 Thomas (Tom) Bradley (December 29, 1917 – September 29, 1998) was the mayor of Los Angeles, California from 1973 to 1993 (five terms) and the first African American mayor of that city. ... A mayor (from the Latin māior, meaning larger, greater) is the modern title of the highest ranking municipal officer. ... Nickname: City of Angels Location within Los Angeles County in the state of California Coordinates: State California County Los Angeles County  - Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa Area    - City  498. ... This article is about the color black; for other uses, see Black (disambiguation). ... Governors Arnold Schwarzenegger and Gray Davis with President George W. Bush (2003) Seal of the Governor of California (without the Roman numerals designating the governors sequence) See also: List of pre-statehood governors of California, List of Governors of California The Governor of California is the highest executive authority... Courken George Deukmejian, Jr. ...

One month prior to the election, Bill Roberts, Deukmejian's campaign manager at that time, had predicted this behavior. He remarked to reporters that he expected Deukmejian could advance approximately five percentage points from what his poll numbers indicated, due to white voters giving inaccurate polling responses in order to conceal a racial prejudice. Roberts's comments were disavowed by Deukmejian, and the controversy that surrounded them ultimately led to Roberts's resignation.^[5]

Similar voter behavior was noted in the 1989 race for Governor of Virginia between black candidate L. Douglas Wilder and white candidate Marshall Coleman. In that race, Wilder prevailed but only narrowly, despite pre-election poll numbers that showed him with a comfortable lead.^[6] Again, the discrepancy was traced to large numbers of white voters who told pollsters that intended to vote for Wilder, but ultimately did not. As a result of this race, some re-christened the "Bradley effect" as the "Wilder effect".^[7] Both terms are still used, each referring to the same dynamic. Tim Kaine, the current Governor The Governor of Virginia serves as the chief executive of the Commonwealth of Virginia for a four-year term. ... Lawrence Douglas Wilder (born January 17, 1931) is an American politician. ... J. Marshall Coleman is a Republican politician in Virginia who ran for several statewide offices from the late 1970s to early 1990s. ...

Other instances

Other races which have been cited as possible demonstrations of the Bradley effect include the 1983 race for Mayor of Chicago,^[8] the 1988 Democratic primary race in Wisconsin for President of the United States,^[9] and the 1989 race for Mayor of New York City.^[8] Richard M. Daley is the current mayor of Chicago. ... The Democratic Party is one of two major contemporary political parties in the United States; the other being the Republican Party. ... A primary election is an election in which voters in a jurisdiction select candidates for a subsequent election (nominating primary). ... Official language(s) None Capital Madison Largest city Milwaukee Area  Ranked 23rd  - Total 65,498 sq mi (169,790 km²)  - Width 260 miles (420 km)  - Length 310 miles (500 km)  - % water 17  - Latitude 42°30N to 47°3N  - Longitude 86°49W to 92°54W Population  Ranked... The presidential seal was first used by President Hayes in 1880 and last modified in 1959 by adding the 50th star for Hawaii. ... For a list of the Dutch Director-Generals who governed New Amsterdam (as New York City was called when it was a Dutch-run settlement) between 1624 and 1664, see: Director-General of New Netherland. ...

The 1983 race in Chicago featured black candidate Harold Washington running against white candidate Bernard Epton. Two polls conducted approximately two weeks before the election showed Washington with a 14-point lead in the race. A third conducted just three days before the election confirmed Washington continuing to hold a lead of 14 points. But in the election's final results, Washington won by less than four points.^[8] Harold Lee Washington (April 15, 1922 – November 25, 1987) was a lawyer, legislator and the first African American Mayor of Chicago, Illinois serving from 1983 until his death in 1987. ... Bernard Epton (1921-1987) was a wealthy insurance attorney and Republican Illinois state legislator most notable for opposing Harold Washington for the mayoralty of Chicago in 1983. ...

In the 1988 Democratic presidential primary in Wisconsin, pre-election polls put black candidate Jesse Jackson — at the time a legitimate challenger to white candidate and frontrunner Michael Dukakis — as likely to receive approximately one-third of the white vote.^[10] Ultimately, however, Jackson carried only about one quarter of that vote, with the discrepancy in the heavily white state contributing to a large margin of victory for Dukakis over the second-place Jackson.^[11] Jesse Louis Jackson (born October 8, 1941) is an American politician, civil rights activist, and Baptist minister. ... Michael Stanley Dukakis (born November 3, 1933) is an American Democratic politician, former Governor of Massachusetts, and the Democratic presidential nominee in 1988. ...

In the 1989 race for Mayor of New York, a poll conducted just over a week before the election showed black candidate David Dinkins holding an 18-point lead over white candidate Rudy Giuliani. Four days before the election, a new poll showed that lead to have shrunk, but still standing at 14 points. On the day of the election, Dinkins prevailed by only two points.^[8] David Norman Dinkins (born July 10, 1927 in Trenton, New Jersey) was the Mayor of New York City from 1989 through 1993, the first (and, to date, only) African American to hold that office. ... Rudolph William Louis Rudy Giuliani III (born May 28, 1944) is an American lawyer, prosecutor, businessman, and Republican politician from the state of New York. ...

Inaccurate polling statistics attributed to the Bradley effect have not always been limited to pre-election polls. In the initial hours after voting concluded in the Bradley-Deukmejian race in 1982, similarly inaccurate exit polls led some news organizations to project Bradley to have won.^[12] Exit polls in the Wilder-Coleman race in 1989 also proved inaccurate in their projection of a 10-point win for Wilder, despite those same exit polls accurately predicting other statewide races.^[13][8] In 2006, a ballot measure in Michigan to end affirmative action generated exit poll numbers showing the race to be too close to call. Ultimately, the measure passed by a wide margin.^[14] Official language(s) None (English, de-facto) Capital Lansing Largest city Detroit Area  Ranked 11th  - Total 97,990 sq mi (253,793 km²)  - Width 239 miles (385 km)  - Length 491 miles (790 km)  - % water 41. ... Affirmative action (or positive discrimination) is a policy or a program whose stated goal is to redress past or present discrimination through active measures to ensure equal opportunity, generally concerning education, employment or seats in parliament and/or government. ...

In 1995, when Colin Powell's name was floated as a possible 1996 presidential candidate, Powell reportedly spoke of being cautioned by publisher Earl G. Graves about the phenomenon described by the Bradley effect. With regard to opinion polls showing Powell leading a hypothetical race with then-incumbent Bill Clinton, Powell was quoted as saying, "Every time I see Earl Graves, he says, 'Look, man, don't let them hand you no crap. When [white voters] go in that booth, they ain't going to vote for you.'"^[15] General Colin Luther Powell, United States Army (Ret. ... Earl G. Graves has held such titles as author, publisher, chief executive, president, entrepreneur, and philanthropist. ... William Jefferson Bill Clinton (born William Jefferson Blythe III[1] on August 19, 1946) was the 42nd President of the United States, serving from 1993 to 2001. ...

Diminishing effect?

In 2006, there was speculation that the Bradley effect might appear in the Tennessee race for United States Senator between black candidate Harold Ford, Jr. and white candidate Bob Corker.^[16][17] Ford lost by a slim margin, but an examination of exit polling data indicated that the percentage of white voters who voted for him closely tracked the percentage that indicated they would do so in polls conducted prior to the election.^[3] Several other 2006 biracial contests saw pre-election polls predict their election's final results with similar accuarcy.^[8] Official language(s) English Capital Nashville Largest city Memphis Largest metro area Nashville Area  Ranked 36th  - Total 42,169 sq mi (109,247 km²)  - Width 120 miles (195 km)  - Length 440 miles (710 km)  - % water 2. ... The United States Senate is the upper house of the U.S. Congress, smaller than the United States House of Representatives. ... Harold Ford redirects here. ... Bob Corker Robert Phillips Bob Corker, Jr. ...

One exception was in the race for United States Senator from Maryland, where black Republican candidate Michael Steele lost by a wider margin than predicted by late polls. However, those same polls also overestimated the Republican candidate in the state's race for governor — a race in which both candidates where white.^[8] Official language(s) None (English, de facto) Capital Annapolis Largest city Baltimore Area  Ranked 42nd  - Total 12,417 sq mi (32,160 km²)  - Width 90 miles (145 km)  - Length 249 miles (400 km)  - % water 21  - Latitude 37°53N to 39°43N  - Longitude 75°4W to 79°33... The Republican Party is one of two major contemporary political parties in the United States; the other being the Democratic Party. ... Michael Steele Michael S. Steele (born October 19, 1958) is the current Lieutenant Governor of Maryland, having been elected on the same ticket as Governor Robert L. Ehrlich in 2002. ... Robert L. Ehrlich, the 60th and current Governor of Maryland. ...

The overall accuracy of the polling data from the 2006 elections has been cited by those who argue that the Bradley effect is diminishing in American politics.^[3][8] Nonetheless, the presidential campaign of Barack Obama is now being watched to see if it will be subject to the Bradley effect.^[18] Barack Hussein Obama (born August 4, 1961; IPA pronunciation: ) is the junior United States Senator from Illinois. ...

Notes