Note that the deficit is distinct from the government's debt (often confusingly called the national debt or public debt), which results from an accumulated deficit across a number of years. Often, a certain part of spending is dedicated to paying of debt with certain maturity, which can be refinanced by issuing new bonds. That is, a fiscal deficit leads to an increase in an entity's debt to others.
Historically, the United States government has tended to spend more than it takes in, with national debt that was close to $1,000,000,000 at the beginning of the 20th century. The budget for most of the 20th century followed a pattern of deficits during wartime and economic crises, and surpluses during periods of peacetime economic expansion. This pattern broke from fiscal years1970 to 1997; although the country was nominally at peace during most of this time, the federal budget deficit accelerated, topping out (in absolute terms) at $290 billion for 1992. In 1998 - 2001, however, gross revenues exceeded expenditures. Subsequently the budget has returned to a deficit basis; the estimated U.S. deficit for fiscal year 2004 is $412.6 billion.
An issue about counting so_called "off_budget" items such as Social Security, which are presently running a large surplus, complicates discussion of budget deficits.
Economic forecasts suggest that such a federal budgetsurplus is likely to continue for the next several years (in the absence of a major recession or substantial revisions in fiscal policy).
As the government deficit or surplus is currently measured, social security revenues and expenditures are included in the "unified budget." The recent budgetsurplus, however, was primarily due to a surplus in the social security account.
Budget forecasts may be found in the online copy of "Economic and Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2000-2009" (chapter 2 of this document deals with the federal budget outlook).
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