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There is no certainty that a federal election will be held in Canada in 2005, but it is a distinct possibility. There is no legal requirement to hold the 39th general election before 2009.
An election in 2005 is possible because the 2004 federal election held on June 28, 2004, resulted in the election of a Liberal minority government. In the past, minority governments have had an average lifespan a year and a half. Some pundits consider the current minority to be particularly unstable. It involves four parties, and only very implausible ideological combinations (e.g., Liberals + Conservatives, or Liberals + Bloc Québécois) could actually command a majority of the seats.
These combinations may happen on certain issues, but are not likely to stand as stable governing coalitions. The Liberals, New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Bloc could form a voting coalition on decriminalization of marijuana, or endorsing the Kyoto Accord.
From its earliest moments, there was some threat of the government falling as even the Speech from the Throne almost resulted in a non_confidence vote.
There are also reasons why a vote may be delayed. The two largest parties, the Liberals and Conservatives, are both low on funds to run a campaign, and new campaign finance laws make it far harder to raise funds. The Bloc Québécois is also seen as a stabilizing factor. In the 2004 election, the Bloc won 54 seats, out of a possible 55 that are considered as winnable by the Bloc. For the Bloc, there is almost no chance of gain from going to the polls, and a substantial chance of loss. In the short term, it is believed that Canadians do not want to return to the polls, and would likely punish any party that brings down the government without very good reason.
It is also worth noting that, while the average lifespan of a minority government overall is about 18 months, Liberal minorities have historically lasted much longer than Conservative minorities. However, previous Liberal minorites were able to push legislation through with the support of the Progressive Party, and later, the NDP. This will not be the case in the 38th Parliament.
If an election were to occur in 2005, it would most likely follow one of the mandatory confidence votes. The first of these is the vote on estimates in December. If the government is defeated on this vote, an election would likely take place in January. The budget is a more likely time for the government to lose a vote of confidence. The federal budget is usually presented in February or March. If the government believes that its popularity has improved significantly since the elections, it could add measures to the budget that would be unacceptable to the opposition and thus force an election.
An election in 2005 would involve the same 308 electoral districts as in 2004, except for in New Brunswick, where the boundaries of Acadie_Bathurst were deemed illegal. Many of the candidates would also be the same. Few incumbents would choose to leave, and the parties have blocked challenges to sitting MPs for the duration of the minority government.
Issues
Issues that are likely to play a major role in any new election - Sponsorship scandal: this issue continues to be a hinderance for the governing Liberals. The Liberals will undoubtedly be attacked by the opposition on this issue, particularly by the Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois, especially after court hearings in early 2005.
- Health care: this is a perennial top issue in Canada. Prime Minister Paul Martin increased funding for health care in 2004 by $41 billion, however there are many debates resulting from the announcement. Quebec agreed to a separate deal and that may not be popular in other parts of Canada. In addition, many on the political right, who want a true two-tier system, and left, who want a completely socialized system with absolutely no private influence, are unhappy over the amount of public influence in the system.
- Social issues: while traditionally a non-issue in Canada, the results from the U.S. election of 2004 could motivate the Religious Right, especially in the rural areas, and bring issues like abortion and same-sex marriage to the forefront, especially after a likely passage of the same-sex marriage bill in early 2005. Many Conservatives oppose abortion, and the large majority oppose legal recognition of same-sex marriage, while the Liberals are divided on these issues.
- Fiscal imbalance: all major parties except the Liberals claim that there was a fiscal imbalance between Ottawa and the provinces and speak of plans to reduce it. The Bloc Québécois is the most vocal party on this issue.
- Taxation: for the Conservatives, significantly lowering taxes to stimulate the economy is a central issue. In 2004, the Conservatives promised to end "corporate welfare" and replace it with tax cuts for all businesses. The Liberals, the Bloc Québécois and the NDP opposed large tax cuts, and argued that money should instead be spent to improve social programs. Huge surpluses ($9.1 billion in 2004) have increased the appetite for tax cuts.
- Parliamentary reform: the Conservatives accused the Liberals of perpetuating "undemocratic practices" in Parliament, by limiting the powers of MPs. Martin called for some reform, but not to the satisfaction of the Conservatives. The Conservatives promised an elected Senate and standing committee and provincial review of judicial appointments. The NDP spoke of abolishing the Canadian Senate - all parties claim to want to reform it.
- Electoral reform: the Conservatives promised fixed election dates. The NDP and the Green Party promote the idea of proportional representation voting -- these parties win a considerably smaller proportion of seats in the House of Commons than of the popular vote under the current first past the post system. Meanwhile, referenda will be held in British Columbia in May 2005 on using single transferable vote in future provincial elections and in November 2005 in Prince Edward Island on using mixed proportional representation. Ontario is also considering such reforms. Changes at the provincial level will put pressure on the federal government to make similar changes.
- National Missile Defence: the Bush administration in the U.S. wants Canada to join the missile shield. Many Conservatives strongly support such a plan, while the Bloc, the NDP and many Liberals oppose it. Prime Minister Martin has not made a decision on the issue.
- 2003 invasion of Iraq: Many Conservatives supported the United States over Iraq, while the Liberals, NDP and Bloc Quebecois strongly opposed and publicly denounced the war. The Liberals are mostly opposed to the war, although there are some supporters in the caucus.
- Gun registry: Many Conservatives strongly oppose the gun registry while the other parties generally support it. A few Liberal backbenchers have spoken against the registry.
- Parliament stability: public opinion polls suggest that any new election held soon will result in another minority government. This may reduce the appetite for a new election and punish whoever forced the election.
National
Notes:
"Before" refers to standings in the House of Commons at dissolution, and not to standings at the previous election.
Timeline
2004 - November 18 - Outspoken Liberal MP Carolyn Parrish was kicked out of the Liberal caucus by Prime Minister Martin for making statements critical of the Liberal Party and the prime minister. She now sits as an independent.
External links - Nodice Elections: Canada (http://www.nodice.ca/elections/canada/)
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