NationMaster - Encyclopedia: Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States

The Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States, also called the Rumsfeld Commission,^[1] was an independent commission formed by the US Congress to evaluate the ballistic missile threat posed to the United States. The group began work in January 1998 and issued their unanimous final report on July 15, 1998, within the six month mandate. The report warned of a growing threat of ballistic missiles and the inability for US intelligence to keep track of developments. This contrasted with the views of previous US intelligence estimates, which stated that the threat of ballistic missiles was still 10 to 20 years away.^[1] The commission further fueled the debate over a national missile defense system, and may have contributed to the coining of the phrase axis of evil. The Congress of the United States is the legislative branch of the federal government of the United States of America. ... Polish missile wz. ... July 15 is the 196th day (197th in leap years) of the year in the Gregorian Calendar, with 169 days remaining. ... 1998 (MCMXCVIII) was a common year starting on Thursday of the Gregorian calendar, and was designated the International Year of the Ocean. ... Logo used on the Intelligence Community web site. ... A payload launch vehicle carrying a prototype exoatmospheric kill vehicle is launched from Meck Island at the Kwajalein Missile Range on Dec. ... Bushs axis of evil includes Iraq, Iran, and North Korea (darker red). ...

photo by Radomil Binek (Radomil) May 29, 2004 Muzeum Uzbrojenia (Museum of armament) - Cytadela, Poznan. ... photo by Radomil Binek (Radomil) May 29, 2004 Muzeum Uzbrojenia (Museum of armament) - Cytadela, Poznan. ... Polish missile wz. ...

Background

The argument for a national missile defense system in the United States was traditionally to protect the country from a Soviet missile attack. With the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, proponents of a missile defense shield began instead to focus on the risk posed by rogue states developing ballistic missiles capable of eventually reaching the US.^[2] Soviet redirects here. ... // [edit] The rise of Gorbachev Although reform in the Soviet Union stalled between 1969 and 1982, a generational shift gave new momentum for reform. ... Rogue state is a term applied by some international theorists to states considered threatening to the worlds peace. ...

This case was blunted by a 1995 NIE, which stated that no country besides the five major nuclear powers was capable of acquiring missiles that could reach Canada or the contiguous United States within the ensuing 15 years.^[2] Republican lawmakers intent on funding a defensive shield criticized the report and the Clinton administration for inaccurate assessments and distorted intelligence, and called for an outside review. The first review was conducted by former Director of Central Intelligence Robert Gates. He concluded that while there was evidence of faulty methodology in the NIE, there was no political bias in the conclusions.^[3] William Jefferson Bill Clinton (born William Jefferson Blythe III on August 19, 1946) was the 42nd President of the United States, serving from 1993 to 2001. ... The Office of Director of Central Intelligence (DCI) was established on January 23rd 1946 with Adm. ... Dr. Robert Michael Gates (born September 25, 1943) served as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency from November 6, 1991 until January 20, 1993, capping a 26-year career in the CIA and the National Security Council. ...

Commission history

The second review was to be conducted by an outside commission, although it took lawmakers until 1997 to agree upon the commission's membership. The commission eventually began to meet in mid-January 1998 in the Old Executive Office Building and under the charimanship of former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Although the commission was not formed to investigate the feasability of a national missile defense shield, the reality that their conclusions would influence that debate led many in Washington to doubt that a unanimous conclusion was possible.^[4] Rumsfeld still wished to reach a consensus, and instituted a policy whereby any noted objection in the report needed to have the support of at least two commissioners.^[5] This article needs to be wikified. ... Seal of the United States Department of Defense The United States Secretary of Defense is the head of the United States Department of Defense, concerned with the armed services and The Secretary is appointed by the President with the approval of the Senate, and is a member of the Cabinet. ... Donald Henry Rumsfeld (born July 9, 1932, Evanston, Illinois) is the 21st and current United States Secretary of Defense. ... Flag Seal Nickname: DC, The District Motto: Justitia Omnibus (Justice for All) Location Location of Washington, D.C., with regard to the surrounding states of Maryland and Virginia. ...

The first several weeks of deliberations and testimonies gleamed little new information on the threat being investigated, so in mid-February, with their mandate giving them access to all necessary information from the executive branch, the commission complained in person to then CIA Director George Tenet. From that point on, the commission gained much greater access to the information and personnel of the US intelligence community.^[6] The CIA Seal The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is an American intelligence agency, responsible for obtaining and analyzing information about foreign governments, corporations, and individuals, and reporting such information to the various branches of the U.S. Government. ... Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (D/CIA) serves as the head of the Central Intelligence Agency, which is part of the United States Intelligence Community. ... George Tenet George John Tenet (born January 5, 1953) is Distinguished Professor in the Practice of Diplomacy at Georgetown University and former United States Director of Central Intelligence. ...

The commission continued briefings until mid-July 1998. During that time they were frustrated by the compartmentalization of intelligence, the refusal of analysts to speculate or hypothesize on given information, and what they considered general inexperience in the intelligence personnel.^[7] The group did not limit their interviews to members of the government, but also spoke with employees of Boeing and Lockheed Martin, especially about how Scud missile designs could be used as the basis for a long-range ballistic missile program.^[8] The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA, TYO: 7661 ) is an aerospace and defense corporation headquartered in Chicago, Illinois. ... Lockheed/BAE/Northrop F-35 Lockheed Trident missile C-130 Hercules; in production since the 1950s, now as the C-130J Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) is an aerospace manufacturer formed in 1995 by the merger of Lockheed Corporation with Martin Marietta. ... For the comics character Scud, see Scud: The Disposable Assassin. ...

Conclusions

There were two final reports of the commission: a 300-page classified report for Congress and a 27-page unclassified report.^[9] In the unclassified version, the group came to four unanimous conclusions:

Aftermath

The findings of the commission generated mixed reactions among lawmakers, intelligence officers, and experts. The intelligence community was privately angered by the harsh language the report used to describe their assessments, although in public George Tenet did not criticize it.^[11]. Congressional proponents of a national missile shield, especially Republicans, used the findings to further push their case.^[12] However, some experts in and out of government questioned the usefullness of the report, saying that it made general speculations without reaching any definite conclusions.^[13]

Within months of the final report several events occured which to some reinforced the commission's conclusions. In late July Iran tested for the first time its new Shahab-3 missile, which traveled 620 miles before exploding. Its basic design was modeled on the North Korean Rodong-1.^[14]^[15] North Korea launched their Taepodong-1, modeled off of the Scud missile highlighted in the report, on August 31 in what they described as a satellite launch. However, US intelligence determined the attempt was a failure. Shahab-3 Type Ballistic missile Nationality Iran Era modern Launch platform Vehicle Target Vehicle, Fortification History Builder Date of design Production period Service duration Operators Iran Variants Number built Specifications Type Diameter between 1,32 and 1,35 metres Wing span Length 16 metres Weight between 15 852 and 16... The Rodong-1 (spelled Nodong-1 in South Korea) is a single stage, mobile liquid propellant medium range ballistic missile developed by North Korea. ... The Taepodong-1 being launched Taepodong-1 is a three-stage intermediate-range ballistic missile developed in North Korea and currently in service there. ... August 31 is the 243rd day of the year in the Gregorian calendar (244th in leap years), with 122 days remaining. ... An image released on North Korean television of what was purported to be KwangmyÅngsÅng KwangmyÅngsÅng (Bright Light Star) was an artificial satellite reportedly launched by North Korea. ...

The commission reentered the public conscious in 2000 when the former chairman of the commission, Donald Rumsfeld, was named by newly elected President George W. Bush to be Secretary of Defense. On December 30, 2000, Richard Garwin, a former commissioner, praised Rumsfeld for his commission work in a New York Times op-ed piece, although he reiterated that the commission never suggested whether or not the US should build a missile defense system.^[16] Other staffers and members of the commission were also appointed by the new Bush administration: Paul Wolfowitz was named Deputy Secretary of Defense, and in March 2003 Stephen Cambone was selected by Rumsfeld to fill the newly created Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence position. The presidential seal was used by President Hayes in 1880 and last modified in 1959 by adding the 50th star for Hawaii. ... George Walker Bush (born July 6, 1946) is an American businessman and politician, was elected in 2000 as the 43rd President of the United States of America, re-elected in 2004, and is currently serving his second term in that office. ... Seal of the United States Department of Defense The United States Secretary of Defense is the head of the United States Department of Defense, concerned with the armed services and The Secretary is appointed by the President with the approval of the Senate, and is a member of the Cabinet. ... December 30 is the 364th day of the year (365th in leap years) in the Gregorian Calendar, with 1 day remaining. ... This article is about the year 2000. ... The New York Times is an internationally known daily newspaper published in New York City and distributed in the United States and many other nations worldwide. ... Photo of Cambone Stephen A. Cambone (born 1951) is the United States Under-Secretary of Defense for Intelligence, a post created in March 2003, and of which he was the first occupant. ... Under Secretary Stephen Cambone The Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence is a position within the United States government that acts as the principal advisor to the United States Secretary of Defense on matters relating to intelligence. ...

The commission is thought by some foreign policy analysts to be the basis for President George W. Bush's axis of evil line in his 2002 State of the Union Address, in which he accused Iraq, Iran, and North Korea of being state sponsors of terrorism and of pursuing weapons of mass destruction.^[17] The Rumsfeld Commission grouped the three countries together because they all were believed to be pursuing ballistic missile programs based on the Scud missile. In the pre-9/11 days of the Bush presidency, the administration had focused heavily on developing a national missile defense system to counter such threats. A month after the address, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who appointed Rumsfeld as head of the commission, mentioned the importance of the commission's findings in relation to the US ability to predict the threat posed by the axis members.^[18] Bushs axis of evil includes Iraq, Iran, and North Korea (darker red). ... 2003 State of the Union address given by U.S. President George W. Bush The State of the Union Address is an annual event in which the President of the United States reports on the status of the country, normally to a joint session of the U.S. Congress (the... State-sponsored terrorism (SST) is a political term used to refer to finance and bounties given across international boundaries to terrorist organizations and the families of deceased militants for the purpose of conducting or rewarding attacks on civilians. ... Weapon of mass destruction (WMD) is a term used to describe a munition with the capacity to indiscriminately kill large numbers of human beings. ... For the comics character Scud, see Scud: The Disposable Assassin. ... The World Trade Center on fire The September 11, 2001 attacks were a series of coordinated terrorist attacks against the United States on September 11, 2001. ... Newton Leroy Gingrich (born June 17, 1943) is an American politician who is best known as the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives from 1995 to 1999. ...

Commissioners

The commission was chaired by current Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. Seal of the United States Department of Defense The United States Secretary of Defense is the head of the United States Department of Defense, concerned with the armed services and The Secretary is appointed by the President with the approval of the Senate, and is a member of the Cabinet. ... Donald Henry Rumsfeld (born July 9, 1932, Evanston, Illinois) is the 21st and current United States Secretary of Defense. ...

Richard L. Garwin (born 1928), is an American physicist. ... William Schneider, Jr. ... General Larry Welch General Larry D. Welch (born 1934) was the 12th Chief of Staff of the United States Air Force. ... Paul Dundes Wolfowitz (born December 22, 1943) is an American academic and political figure. ... Robert James Woolsey, Jr. ...

Core Staff

Photo of Cambone Stephen A. Cambone (born 1951) is the United States Under-Secretary of Defense for Intelligence, a post created in March 2003, and of which he was the first occupant. ...

Notes

^ ^a ^b Rumsfeld Commission Report on Missile Threat, The Literature of Intelligence: A Bibliography of Materials, with Essays, Reviews, and Comments, Muskingum College. Retrieved October 29, 2006.
^ ^a ^b Graham, 32.
^ Graham, 34.
^ Graham, 35.
^ Graham, 36.
^ Graham, 37.
^ Graham, 37-39
^ Graham, 43-33
^ Schmitt, Eric. "Panel Says U.S. Faces Risk Of a Surprise Missile Attack", The New York Times, July 16, 1998.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d Report of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States
^ Graham, 48-9
^ Graham, 48.
^ Graham, 49.
^ Shahab-3 / Zelzal-3, Federation of American Scientists. Retrieved November 1, 2006.
^ DECLARATION OF POLICY OF THE UNITED STATES CONCERNING NATIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE DEPLOYMENT, 106th Congress US House of Representatives. Retrieved November 1, 2006.
^ Garwin, Richard L. "Count on Rumsfeld, Not the Missile Shield", The New York Times, December 30, 2000.
^ Bronson, Rachel. "The American Surprise", Council on Foreign Relations, March 1, 2002. Retrieved October 29, 2006.
^ Speech to the Melbourne 500 Club

References

Contents

Background

Commission history

Conclusions

Aftermath

Commissioners

Core Staff

Notes

References

See also

External links

Contents

Background GA_googleFillSlot("encyclopedia_square");

Commission history

Conclusions

Aftermath

Commissioners

Core Staff

Notes

References

See also

External links

Background