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Encyclopedia > Concrete illustration of the central limit theorem

This article illustrates the central limit theorem via an example for which the computation can be done quickly by hand on paper, unlike the more computing-intensive example in the article titled illustration of the central limit theorem. Suppose the probability distribution of a random variable X puts equal weights on 1, 2, and 3:

The probability mass function of the random variable X may be depicted thus:

 o o o ------------- 1 2 3 

Clearly this looks nothing like the bell-shaped curve.


Now consider the sum of two independent copies of X:

The probability mass function of this sum may be depicted thus:

 o o o o o o o o o ---------------------------- 2 3 4 5 6 

This still does not look very much like the bell-shaped curve, but, like the bell-shaped curve and unlike the probability mass function of X itself, it is higher in the middle than in the two tails.


Now consider the sum of three independent copies of this random variable:

The probability mass function of this sum may be depicted thus:

 o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o --------------------------------- 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 

This not only is bigger in the center than in the tails, but as one moves toward the center from either tail, the slope first increases and then decreases, just as with the bell-shaped curve.


We can quantify the degree of its resemblance to the bell-shaped curve, as follows. Consider

Pr(X1 + X2 + X3 ≤ 7) = 1/27 + 3/27 + 6/27 + 7/27 + 6/27 = 23/27 = 0.851 851 851 ... .

How close is this to what a normal approximation would give? It can readily be seen that the expected value of Y = X1 + X2 + X3 is 6 and the standard deviation of Y is the square root of 2. Since Y ≤ 7 (weak inequality) if and only if Y < 8 (strict inequality), we use a continuity correction and seek

where Z has a standard normal distribution. The difference between 0.85185... and 0.8556... seems remarkably small when it is considered that the number of independent random variables that were added was only three.


  Results from FactBites:
 
Illustration of the central limit theorem - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (581 words)
Here is an illustration of the central limit theorem.
Although the original density is far from normal, the density of the sum of just a few variables with that density is much smoother and has some of the qualitative features of the normal density.
A more concrete illustration, in which most of the arithmetic can be done more-or-less instantly by hand, is at concrete illustration of the central limit theorem.
Addition - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (5557 words)
Another 1992 experiment with older toddlers, between 18 to 35 months, exploited their development of motor control by allowing them to retrieve ping-pong balls from a box; the youngest responded well for small numbers, while older subjects were able to compute sums up to 5.
Pascal's calculator was limited by its carry machanism in a different sense: its wheels turned only one way, so it could add but not subtract, except by the method of complements.
The approximation becomes exact in a kind of infinite limit; if either a or b is an infinite cardinal number, their cardinal sum is exactly equal to the greater of the two.
  More results at FactBites »


 

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