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Consensus science is a phrase used to describe a position on an issue that is primarily supported using existing or purported scientific consensus as an appeal to authority or appeal to the majority. It can also refer to a use of scientific consensus in a logical argument as the primary means to demonstrate, establish, or promote a view based on scientific or statistical data which may or may not be part of some hypothesis or theory. Scientific consensus is the collective judgment, position, and opinion of scientists in a particular field of science at a particular time. ...
An appeal to authority is a type of argument in logic also known as argument from authority, argumentum ad verecundiam (Latin: argument to respect) or ipse dixit (Latin: he himself said it, where an unsupported assertion depends on the asserters credibility). ...
An appeal to the majority (also called argumentum ad populum) is the Americans support the death penalty as an argument for the death penalty is an appeal to the majority and does not logically support the argument. ...
In logic, an argument is an attempt to demonstrate the truth of an assertion called a conclusion, based on the truth of a set of assertions called premises. ...
A hypothesis is a suggested explanation of a phenomenon or reasoned proposal suggesting a possible correlation between multiple phenomena. ...
Theory has a number of distinct meanings in different fields of knowledge, depending on the context and their methodologies. ...
One who perceives a scientific theory to be supported by both scientific consensus and conclusive evidence would not consider it "consensus science", because a supporting argument can be easily formulated using the existing conclusive evidence without relying primarily on consensus for support. The term "consensus science" does not refer simply to a scientific theory which has a consensus, but rather to an argument in which the consensus of scientists is given as the primary support of the argument. For example, the scientific consensus on Global Warming that it is happening and is primarily caused by human production of greenhouse gases would not be called "consensus science" because a scientific consensus is not the primary supporting argument. Conclusive evidence that Global Warming is occuring and caused by human activity has resulted in a scientific consensus on the issue, but because conclusive evidence is the main support rather than the consensus itself the term "censensus science" does not apply.
History and Background
Although it existed beforehand, the term consensus science gained wider exposure after a 2003 speech by Michael Crichton entitled, "Aliens Cause Global Warming" [1], in which he disussed what he believed to be the impropriety of basing scientific conclusions primarily on scientific consensus. This is the speech which fostered the quote: 2003 (MMIII) was a common year starting on Wednesday of the Gregorian calendar. ...
Michael Crichton John Michael Crichton (born October 23, 1942, pronounced // [1]) is an American author, film producer and television producer. ...
Global mean surface temperatures 1856 to 2005; this map shows mean surface temperature anomalies during the period 1995 to 2004 with respect to the average temperatures from 1940 to 1980 Global warming refers to the increases in the average temperature of the Earths atmosphere and oceans in recent decades. ...
- "Let's be clear: the work of science has nothing whatever to do with consensus. Consensus is the business of politics. Science, on the contrary, requires only one investigator who happens to be right, which means that he or she has results that are verifiable by reference to the real world. In science consensus is irrelevant. What is relevant is reproducible results. The greatest scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with the consensus....There is no such thing as consensus science. If it's consensus, it isn't science. If it's science, it isn't consensus. Period." - Michael Crichton
Another well known individual who publicly cautions about the proper role of consensus in science is Brian David Josephson, Nobel Laureate in Physics. Professor Josephson wrote: "if scientists as a whole denounce an idea this should not necessarily be taken as proof that the said idea is absurd: rather, one should examine carefully the alleged grounds for such opinions and judge how well these stand up to detailed scrutiny." Josephson's home page Brian David Josephson (born Cardiff, Wales, UK, January 4, 1940) is a British physicist whose discovery of the Josephson effect as a 22-year-old graduate student won him the 1973 Nobel Prize for Physics, which he shared with Leo Esaki and Ivar Giaever. ...
Hannes Alfvén (1908–1995) accepting the Nobel Prize for his work on magnetohydrodynamics [1]. List of Nobel Prize laureates in Physics from 1901 to the present day. ...
Emeritus professor Garth Paltridge wrote an essay at Tech Central Station entitled "Climate Models and Consensus Science" [2] in which he cautioned against relying too heavily on climate models and stated "we have to get away from simply running models and comparing their final output in some sort of search for a consensus on the results. Consensus is not science. Consensus tends to the politically correct. Consensus is not the sort of thing on which sensible people put their money." Tech Central Station (TCS) describes itself as a website where free markets meet technology. TCS publishes daily original commentary, news and analysis, focused on economics, business, foreign affairs, technology, science, environment, trade, and culture. ...
Climate models use quantitative methods to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and ice. ...
Examples It was widely believed that saccharine is dangerous based on the conclusions of animal studies conducted in the 1970s that appeared to show it could cause cancer. However, further studies have failed to confirm that analysis and none have shown a link between normal doses of saccharine and cancer in humans. In this case, the apparent scientific consensus turned out to be false. It is used as an example of the dangers of "consensus science". Saccharin is the oldest artificial sweetener; it was discovered in 1879 by Ira Remsen and Constantine Fahlberg of Johns Hopkins University. ...
When normal cells are damaged beyond repair, they are eliminated by apoptosis. ...
Scientific consensus is the collective judgment, position, and opinion of scientists in a particular field of science at a particular time. ...
There are a number of popular theories which are described by some as consensus science and much like the label junk science, there is often considerable disagreement as to which are supported primarily by consensus and which by conclusive evidence. Junk or bunk science is a term used to describe purportedly scientific data, research, analyses or claims which are perceived to be driven by political, financial or other questionable motives. ...
The term consensus science is often used as a criticism of the subject or theory to which it is applied, as use of the term implies that scientific consensus is used as the primary means of support. However, it can also be used non-judgmentally as a means of arguing the need for more or better research to clarify the validity of a given theory.
Geostatistics is a typical example of consensus science. Hailed as a new science in the early 1960s but dismissed by skeptics as a sham, geostatistics is an invalid variant of mathematical statistics because it violates the requirement of functional independence and ignores the concept of degrees of freedom. It is irrefutable that a set of distance-weighted averages does not give a single degree of freedom, and that the variance of this set is an invalid measure for variability, precision and risk. Geostatistics converted Bre-X's bogus grades and Busang's barren rock in the largest phantom gold resource the world has never seen. Geostatistics applies the theories of stochastic processes and statistical inference to geographic phenomena. ...
Bre-X logo Bre-X Minerals Ltd. ...
Criticisms The major criticism of the consensus science term is the claim that by using the term, one is insisting that theories have conclusive or compelling evidence. However, a consensus can arise based upon unconfirmed results. Although reproducibility is an essential part of the scientific method, duplicating a result may be expensive, difficult, or blocked by ambiguous procedures in original study. Scientific method refers to a body of techniques for the investigation of phenomena and the acquisition of new knowledge of the natural world, as well as the correction and integration of previous knowledge, based on observable, empirical, measurable evidence, and subject to laws of reasoning. ...
Resistance to Contradiction Accusations that a particular field is a consensus science also include accusations that some researchers in the field, or others speaking in support of the field, exert a resistance to contradictions to that consensus. The accusation is made that because consensus is important to the support of the field, contradictions which threaten that consensus are strongly opposed, and are thus actively suppressed.
In 2001, the controversial political scientist Bjørn Lomborg published a book called The Skeptical Environmentalist. Subsequently many took issue with Lomborg and the book, subjecting him and his book to criticism and calling for his professional censure. Lomborg has also received extensive criticism and ridicule from some environmental scientists and has become a point of reference for others who disapprove of the mainstream view. A controversy is a contentious dispute, a disagreement over which parties are actively arguing. ...
See also: Political Science Notable political scientists Kenneth Arrow - Nobel Memorial Prize winning economist who published influential paper on his widely cited Arrows Impossibility Theorem Robert Axelrod Duncan Black - Responsible for unearthing the work of many early political scientists, including Charles Dodgson Jean-Charles de Borda - 18th century mathematician...
Bjørn Lomborg Bjørn Lomborg (born January 6, 1965) is a Danish political scientist and former director of the Environmental Assessment Institute in Copenhagen. ...
The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World (Danish: Verdens Sande Tilstand, literal translation: The Real State of the World) is a controversial book by political scientist Bjørn Lomborg, which argues that claims made about global warming, overpopulation, declining energy resources, deforestation, species loss, water shortages, and...
Bjørn Lomborg Bjørn Lomborg (born January 6, 1965) is a Danish political scientist and former director of the Environmental Assessment Institute in Copenhagen. ...
In 1990, Dr. Richard Lindzen of MIT wrote an article for the American Meteorological Society in which he criticized the recommendation "that skepticism be stifled" with regard to the issues surrounding the question of global warming. The comment was in reference to an editorial in the Boston Globe of 12-17-1989. PDF file. Richard Siegmund Lindzen (born 1940) is an atmospheric physicist and a professor of meteorology at MIT renowned for his research in dynamic meteorology - especially atmospheric waves. ...
The American Meteorological Society promotes the development and dissemination of information and education on the atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic sciences and the advancement of their professional applications. ...
See also Richard Feynman during his famous cargo cult science speech at the Caltech 1974 commencement address. ...
The consensus theory of truth, originated by Charles Sanders Peirce who called it pragmatism, and later pragmaticism, holds that a statement is true if it would be agreed to by all those who investigate it if investigation were carried sufficiently far in that particular direction. ...
Consensus decision-making is a decision process that not only seeks the agreement of most participants, but also to resolve or mitigate the objections of the minority to achieve the most agreeable decision. ...
The false consensus effect refers to the tendency for people to overestimate the degree to which others agree with them. ...
Groupthink is a term widely (and mistakenly) attrbuted to psychologist Irving Janis. ...
Majoritarianism is a political philosophy or agenda which asserts that a majority (sometimes categorized by religion, language or some other identifying factor) of the population is entitled to a certain degree of primacy in society, and has the right to make decisions that affect the society. ...
Philosophy of science is the branch of philosophy that studies the philosophical assumptions, foundations, and implications of science, including the formal sciences, natural sciences, and social sciences. ...
It has been suggested that Propaganda in the United States be merged into this article or section. ...
Phrenology is regarded today as being a classic example of pseudoscience. ...
Scientific consensus is the collective judgment, position, and opinion of scientists in a particular field of science at a particular time. ...
Scientific method refers to a body of techniques for the investigation of phenomena and the acquisition of new knowledge of the natural world, as well as the correction and integration of previous knowledge, based on observable, empirical, measurable evidence, and subject to laws of reasoning. ...
Scholarly method - or as it is more commonly called, scholarship - is the body of principles and practices used by scholars to make their claims about the world as valid and trustworthy as possible, and to make them known to the scholarly public. ...
The sociology of scientific knowledge (SSK) is a recognised school of loosely allied thinkers including Gaston Bachelard, Thomas Kuhn, Paul Feyerabend, Bruno Latour and David Bloor. ...
See also logical fallacies In philosophy, the term logical fallacy properly refers to a formal fallacy: a flaw in the structure of a deductive argument which renders the argument invalid. ...
An appeal to authority is a type of argument in logic also known as argument from authority, argumentum ad verecundiam (Latin: argument to respect) or ipse dixit (Latin: he himself said it, where an unsupported assertion depends on the asserters credibility). ...
An appeal to the majority (also called argumentum ad populum) is the Americans support the death penalty as an argument for the death penalty is an appeal to the majority and does not logically support the argument. ...
The Argumentum ad numerum or argument from numbers is a logical fallacy that consists of the assertion that the more people who accept or believe an assertion, the more likely that assertion is to be true. ...
The Argumentum ad numerum or argument from numbers is a logical fallacy that consists of the assertion that the more people who accept or believe an assertion, the more likely that assertion is to be true. ...
Special pleading is a form of spurious argumentation where a position in a dispute introduces favorable details or excludes unfavorable details by alleging a need to apply additional considerations without proper criticism of these considerations themselves. ...
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