Deflation is a decrease in the monetary base of an economy; a decrease in the general price level over a period of time is its result. Deflation is the opposite of inflation. For economists especially, the term has been and is sometimes used to refer to a decrease in the size of the money supply (as a proximate cause of the decrease in the general price level). The latter is now more often referred to as a 'contraction' of the money supply. During deflation the demand for liquidity goes up, in preference to goods or interest. During deflation the purchasing power of money increases. Look up deflation in Wiktionary, the free dictionary. ... This article does not cite its references or sources. ... This article or section does not cite any references or sources. ... Market liquidity is a business or economics term that refers to the ability to quickly buy or sell a particular item without causing a significant movement in the price. ... In economics, purchasing power refers to the amount of goods and services a given amount of money -- or, more generally, liquid assets -- can buy. ... Various denominations of currency, one form of money Money is any good or token that functions as a medium of exchange that is socially and legally accepted in payment for goods and services and in settlement of debts. ...

Deflation is considered a problem in a modern economy because of the potential of a deflationary spiral and its association with the Great Depression, although not all episodes of deflation correspond to periods of poor economic growth historically. A Deflationary Spiral is where psychological deflation becomes entrenched and deflation becomes the norm for an economy. ... For other uses, see The Great Depression (disambiguation). ...

Definition

The 'general price level' comprises the price of wages, consumption goods and services. As with inflation, there are economists who regard deflation as a purely monetary effect, when the monetary authority and the banks constrict the money supply, and there are those who believe that price deflation follows dramatic falls in business confidence, which reduces the velocity of money, i.e. the speed with which money is circulating. However, it is at least theoretically possible to have a falling money supply but stable or rising prices, if the rate of increase of the velocity of money is substantially greater than the rate at which the money supply is falling. Presumably, this is what happens in the early stages of a hyper-inflation as the monetary authorities lose control over the money supply (but are initially, at least, trying to put on the brakes by the usual remedy of restricting money supply). A wage is a compensation which workers receive in exchange for their labor. ... A good in economics is any physical object (natural or man-made) or service that, upon consumption, increases utility, and therefore can be sold at a price in a market. ... Services are: plural of service Tertiary sector of industry IRC services Web services the name of a first-class cricket team in India This is a disambiguation page — a navigational aid which lists other pages that might otherwise share the same title. ... Monetary authority is a generic term in finance and economics for the entity which controls the money supply of a given currency, and has the right to set interest rates, and other parameters which control the cost and availability of money. ... Velocity of money In economics, the velocity of money refers to a key term in the quantity theory of money, which centers on the equation of exchange: M*V = P*Q where M is the total amount of money in circulation in an economy at any one time (say, on...

In the recent years, economists have also started to use the term inflation and deflation in relation to assets (i.e. as a short-hand for price inflation or price deflation), such as stocks and housing (production goods). Indeed, policies designed to fight inflation in goods, services and wages, have seemed to spur stock and housing price inflation, or asset bubbles. During deflation, while consumers can buy more with the same amount of money, they also have less access to money (e.g., as wages, debt, or the return realized on sales of their products). Consumers and producers who are in debt, such as mortgagors, suffer because as their (money) income drops, their (money) payments remain constant. Central bankers worry about deflation, because many of the tools of monetary policy become ineffective as the real cost of money (the interest rate minus the inflation rate) begins to turn higher again once the inflation rate drops below zero (nominal interest rates cannot fall below zero; that would be equivalent to the banks paying customers to borrow money!). Deflation may set off a deflationary spiral, where businesses slow or stop investing, because the investment risk is perceived as higher than just letting the money appreciate due to deflation. (The deflationary spiral is the opposite of the hyper-inflationary spiral.) This article does not cite any references or sources. ... It has been suggested that monetary theory be merged into this article or section. ... A Deflationary Spiral is where psychological deflation becomes entrenched and deflation becomes the norm for an economy. ... Lets talk about risk control strategies, anyone with more information and willing to share, please do so. ... A 500,000,000,000 (500 billion) Serbian dinar banknote circa 1993, the largest nominal value ever officially printed in Serbia, the final result of hyperinflation. ...

Deflation is generally regarded as a negative in modern currency environments, because a deflationary spiral may cause large falls in GDP and purchasing power, and may take a very long time to correct.

However, a deflationary bias is the norm under specie or specie backed money economies, as population and production tend to increase faster than the stock of specie. (Conversely, an inflationary bias is the norm under fiat money economies.) There are also episodes where there may be deflation in only a particular kind or type of goods, such as commodities during the Great commodities depression of 1982-1998. A commodity metal, historically gold and silver, backing money or currency. ... The Great Commodities Depression is the steep, general recession in commodity prices between 1980 and 2000, both in real and nominal terms. ...

Deflation should not be confused with disinflation which is a slowing in the rate of inflation, that is, where the general level of prices are still increasing, but slower than before. Disinflation is a decrease in the rate of inflation. ...

In monetarists theory, deflation is defined in terms of a rise in the demand for money, based on the quantity of money available. The Quantity Theory of Money is founded on the Fisher equation (also called the equation of exchange), In economics, the velocity of money refers to a key term in the quantity theory of money, which centers on the equation of exchange: where is the total amount of money in circulation in an economy at any one time (say, on average during a month). ...

MV = PT, [1]

where M is the money supply, V is the velocity of money, P is the average price level and T is the total number of transactions.

In this model of deflation, it is a contraction of the money supply which reduces the velocity of money, and thus the number of transactions falls and therefore the general price level falls in response.

Effects of deflation

In mainstream economic theory deflation is a general reduction in the level of prices, or of the prices of an entire kind of asset or commodity. Deflation should not be confused with temporarily falling prices; instead, it is a sustained fall in general prices. In the IS-LM model this is caused by a shift in the supply and demand curve for goods and interest, particularly a fall in the aggregate level of demand. That is, there is a fall in how much the whole economy is willing to buy, and the going price for goods. Since this idles capacity, investment also falls, leading to further reductions in aggregate demand. This is the deflationary spiral. The solution to falling aggregate demand is stimulus either from the central bank, by expanding the money supply, or by the fiscal authority to increase demand, and borrow at interest rates which are below those available to private entities. The supply and demand model describes how prices vary as a result of a balance between product availability at each price (supply) and the desires of those with purchasing power at each price (demand). ... A Deflationary Spiral is where psychological deflation becomes entrenched and deflation becomes the norm for an economy. ... Look up stimulus in Wiktionary, the free dictionary. ...

In more recent economic thinking, deflation is related to risk, where the risk adjusted return of assets drops to negative, investors and buyers will hoard currency rather than invest it, even in the most solid of securities. This can produce the theoretical condition, much debated as to its practical possibility, of a liquidity trap. A central bank cannot, normally, charge negative interest for money, and even charging zero interest often produces less stimulative effect than slightly higher rates of interest. In a closed economy, this is because charging zero interest also means having zero return on government securities, or even negative return on short maturities. In an open economy it creates a carry trade and devalues the currency producing higher prices for imports without necessarily stimulating exports to a like degree. The experience of Japan during its 1988-2004 depression is thought to illustrate both of these problems. In monetary economics, a liquidity trap occurs when the economy is stagnant, the real interest rate is close or equal to zero, and the monetary authority is unable to stimulate the economy with traditional monetary policy tools. ...

In monetarist theory deflation is related to a sustained reduction in the velocity of money or number of transacitons. This is attributed to a dramatic contraction of the money supply, perhaps in response to a falling exchange rate, or to adhere to a gold standard or other external monetary base requirement.

Deflation is generally regarded negatively, as it is a tax on borrowers and on holders of illiquid assets, which accrues to the benefit of savers and of holders of liquid assets and currency. In this sense it is the opposite of inflation (or in the extreme, hyperinflation), which is a tax on currency holders and lenders (savers) in favor of borrowers and short term consumption. In modern economies, deflation is caused by a collapse in demand (usually brought on by high interest rates), and is associated with recession and (more rarely) long term economic depressions. Certain figures in this article use scientific notation for readability. ...

In modern economies, as loan terms have grown in length and financing is integral to building and general business, the penalties associated with deflation have grown larger. Since deflation discourages investment and spending, because there is no reason to risk on future profits when the expectation of profits may be negative and the expectation of future prices is lower, it generally leads to, or is associated with a collapse in aggregate demand. Without the "hidden risk of inflation", it may become more prudent just to hold onto money, and not to spend or invest it. In economics, aggregate demand is the total demand for goods and services in the economy (Y) during a specific time period. ...

Deflation is, however, the natural condition of hard currency economies when the rate of increase in the supply of money is not maintained at a rate commensurate to positive population (and general economic) growth. When this happens, the available amount of hard currency per person falls, in effect making money scarcer; and consequently, the purchasing power of each unit of currency increases. The late 19th century provides an example of sustained deflation combined with economic development under these conditions.

Deflation also occurs when improvements in production efficiency lowers the overall price of goods. Improvements in production efficiency generally happen because economic producers of goods and services are motivated by a promise of increased profit margins, resulting from the production improvements that they make. But despite their profit motive, competition in the marketplace often prompts those producers to apply at least some portion of these cost savings into reducing the asking price for their goods. When this happens, consumers pay less for those goods; and consequently deflation has occurred, since purchasing power has increased.

While an increase in the purchasing power of one's money sounds beneficial, it can actually cause hardship when the majority of one's net worth is held in illiquid assets such as homes, land, and other forms of private property. It also amplifies the sting of debt, since-- after some period of significant deflation-- the payments one is making in the service of a debt represent a larger amount of purchasing power than they did when the debt was first incurred. Consequently, deflation can be thought of as a phantom amplification of a loan's interest rate. (But, conversely, inflation may be thought of as a regressive, across the board general tax.)

This lesson about protracted deflationary cycles and their attendant hardships has been felt several times in modern history. During the 19th century, the Industrial Revolution brought about a huge increase in production efficiency, that happened to coincide with a relatively flat money-supply. These two deflationary catalysts led, simultaneously, not only to tremendous capital development, but also to tremendous deprivation for millions of people who were ill-equipped to deal with the dark side of deflation. Business owners-- on average, better educated in economic theory than their unfortunate cohorts (or just better able to withstand the economic stresses) -- recognized the deflation cycle as it unfolded, and positioned themselves to leverage its beneficial aspects. The Industrial Revolution was a major shift of technological, socioeconomic, and cultural conditions that occurred in the late 18th century and early 19th century in some Western countries. ...

Hard money advocates argue that if there were no "rigidities" in an economy, then deflation should be a welcome effect, as the lowering of prices would allow more of the economy's effort to be moved to other areas of activity, thus increasing the total output of the economy. However, while there have been periods of 'beneficial' deflation (especially in industry segments, such as computers), more often it has led to the more severe form with negative impact to large segments of the populace and economy.

Since deflationary periods favor those who hold currency over those who do not, they are often matched with periods of rising populist sentiment, as in the late 19th century, when populists in the United States wanted to move off hard money standards and back to a money standard based on the more inflationary (because more abundantly available) metal silver.

Most economists agree that the effects of modest long-term inflation are less damaging than deflation (which, even at best, is very hard to control). Deflation raises real wages which are both difficult and costly for management to lower. This frequently leads to layoffs and makes employers reluctant to hire new workers, increasing unemployment. However, in the last 5 years or so, real wages for the average worker has remained fixed or actually decreased, with little effect on unemployment.^{[citation needed]} In economics, the distinction between nominal and real numbers is often made. ... This article does not cite any references or sources. ...

Causes of deflation

From a monetary perspective deflation is caused by a reduction in the velocity of money and/or the amount of money supply per person. In a hard money economy (with limited specie sources), deflation is the more natural state of the economy - people multiply and economies grow faster than hard money is created. Capitalism (when sufficient competition exists) is also an engine of deflation: as capital stocks improve, and there are more competitors, the supply of goods goes up, which means prices must fall until they balance demand. Capitalism also drives efficiency and innovation which has a downward pull on prices. This article or section does not cite any references or sources. ...

A distinction then, should be drawn between deflation in hard currency economies, such as those on the gold standard and economies which run on credit. In modern credit based economies, a deflationary spiral may be caused by the (central bank) initiating higher interest rates (e.g., to 'control' inflation), thereby possibly popping an asset bubble or the collapse of a command economy which has been run at a higher level of production than it could actually support. In a credit based economy, a fall in money supply leads to markedly less lending, with a further sharp fall in money supply (since debt is money), and a consequent sharp fall-off in demand for goods. Demand falls, and with the falling of demand, there is a fall in prices as a supply glut develops. This becomes a deflationary spiral when prices fall below the costs of financing production. Businesses, unable to make enough profit no matter how low they set prices, are then liquidated. Banks get assets which have fallen dramatically in value since the (mortgage) loan was made, and if they sell those assets, they further glut supply, which only exacerbates the situation. To slow or halt the deflationary spiral, banks will often withhold collecting on non-performing loans (as in Japan, most recently). This is often no more than a stop-gap measure, because they must then restrict credit, since they do not have money to lend, which further reduces demand, and so on. The gold standard is a monetary system in which the standard economic unit of account is a fixed weight of gold. ... Credit as a financial term, used in such terms as credit card, refers to the granting of a loan and the creation of debt. ... An economic bubble occurs when speculation in a commodity causes the price to increase, thus producing more speculation. ... A planned economy is an economic system in which economic decisions are made by centralized planners, who determine what sorts of goods and services to produce, and how they are to be priced and allocated. ... Look up Glut in Wiktionary, the free dictionary The word glut may refer to: Fornjót (a jotun from Norse mythology) GLUT (OpenGL Utility Toolkit) Glucose transporter This is a disambiguation page—a list of articles associated with the same title. ...

In unstable currency economies, barter and other alternate currency arrangements are common, and therefore when the 'official' money becomes scarce (or unusually unreliable), commerce can still continue (e.g., most recently in Russia and Argentina). Since in such economies the central government is often unable, even if it were willing, to adequately control the internal economy, there is no pressing need for individuals to acquire official currency except to pay for imported goods. In effect, barter acts as protective tariff in such economies, encouraging local consumption of local production. It also acts as a spur to mining and exploration, since one easy way to make money in such an economy is to dig it out of the ground.

When the central bank has lowered nominal interest rates all the way to zero, it can no longer further stimulate demand by lowering interest rates - "deflation is when the central bank cannot give money away". This is the famous liquidity trap. When deflation takes hold, it requires "special arrangements" to "lend" money at a zero nominal rate of interest (which could still be a very high real rate of interest, due to the negative inflation rate) in order to (artificially) increase the money supply. In monetary economics, a liquidity trap occurs when the economy is stagnant, the real interest rate is close or equal to zero, and the monetary authority is unable to stimulate the economy with traditional monetary policy tools. ...

This cycle has been traced out on the broad scale during the Great Depression. Specifically when the collapse of the Viennese Credit-Anstalt bank led to the subsequent collapse of the entire global financial system.[2] International trade contracted sharply, severely reducing demand for goods, thereby idling a great deal of capacity, and setting off a string of bank failures. A similar situation in Japan, beginning with the stock and real estate market collapse in the early 1990s, was arrested by the Japanese government preventing the collapse of most banks and taking over direct control of several in the worst condition. These occurrences are the matter of intense debate. There are economists who argue that the post-2000 recession had a period where the US was at risk of severe deflation, and that therefore the Federal Reserve central bank was right in holding interest rates at an "accommodative" stance from 2001 on. For other uses, see The Great Depression (disambiguation). ... The Federal Reserve System is headquartered in the Eccles Building on Constitution Avenue in Washington, DC. The Federal Reserve System (also the Federal Reserve; informally The Fed) is the central banking system of the United States. ...

Alternative causes and effects

Image File history File links Unbalanced_scales. ...

The neoclassical school of economics

The neutrality and factual accuracy of this section are disputed. Please see the relevant discussion on the talk page.

In a theoretical perfectly competitive market, no deflation can happen because monetary authorities control money creation and prices are allowed to fluctuate.^{[citation needed]} Image File history File links Circle-question-red. ... Image File history File links Unbalanced_scales. ...

The Austrian school of economics

The Austrian school defines deflation and inflation solely in relation to the money supply. Deflation is therefore defined to be a contraction of the money supply. Under this definition, the Austrian school sees deflation as a cause of a general fall in prices, not a general fall in prices itself. They attribute the other main cause of a general fall in prices to be an increase of productivity relative to the money supply. The Austrian School, also known as the Vienna School or the Psychological School, is a school of economic thought that advocates adherence to strict methodological individualism. ...

For instance if there is a fixed money supply of 400 kg of gold in an economy that produces 200 widgets, then one widget will cost 2 kg of gold. However, next year if output is 400 widgets with the same money supply of 400 kg of gold the price of each widget will drop to 1 kg of gold. In this case the general fall in price was caused by increased productivity. Look up widget in Wiktionary, the free dictionary. ...

The opposite of the above scenario has the same effect on prices, but a different cause. If there is a fixed money supply of 400 kg of gold in an economy that produces 200 widgets, then once again each widget will cost 2 kg of gold. However, if next year the money supply is cut in half to 200 kg of gold with the same output of 200 widgets, the price of each widget will now only be 1 kg of gold. When capital profits are dropping rapidly, there is no reason to invest gold, which breaks the savings identity, and thus the automatic tendency of the economy to move back to equilibrium. Savings Identity or the Savings Investment Idenity In economics, the assumption that the amount saved in an economy will be invested. ...

Austrians view increased productivity to be a good cause of a general fall in prices, while credit/money supply contraction as being a bad cause of a general fall in prices. Austrians contend that in the first scenario wages will remain the same because of the unchanged money supply but that a general increase in wealth will be reflected in lower prices. Austrians also take the position that there are no negative distortions in the economy due to a general fall in prices in the first scenario. However, in the second scenario where a general fall in prices is caused by deflation, Austrians contend that this confers no benefit to society. For in this scenario wages will simply be cut in half and lower prices will not reflect a general increase in wealth. In addition, Austrians believe that deflation causes negative distortions in the economy with debtors and creditors as well as other areas.

Keynesian economics

Keynesians insist on the distinction between consuming goods and producing goods (assets), and between exogeneous (government based) and endogeneous (credit based) money supply. For a given money supply, if wages rise faster than productivity, profits will fall, and with them the price of producing goods (deflation), while consuming goods will rise (inflation). This happens in times when labor supply is tight and bargaining power is strong (prior to mid 1970s). When wages rise slower than productivity, profits rise as do the prices of assets relative to consuming goods. This can occur when labor supply is great and bargaining power is weak (mid 1970s to present). Keynesian economics, or Keynesianism, is an economic theory based on the ideas of John Maynard Keynes, as put forward in his book The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, published in 1936 in response to the Great Depression of the 1930s. ...

Inflation and deflation occur when the economic policies allow wages to increase or decrease at differing rates than productivity. Wages rising faster than productivity lead to inflation. Wages failing to increase at the rate of productivity for protracted periods will ultimately cause deflation.

Indeed, if growth continues despite lagging wages, it is because of debt accumulation, producers lend to wage earning consumers part of their profits, in order to sell their products. For protracted periods, there is a lot of endogeneous money creation. The debt/GDP ratio rises.

Then, when debt payments exceed the borrower's ability to pay, debt accumulation and endogeneous money creation stops, demand and goods' prices fall (deflation), manufacturers reduce production, employment falls, and fewer borrowers are thus able to pay their debts, and the cycle exacerbates.

Once preventive action has failed, Keynesians advocate corrective action. In case of debt deflation, keynesians advocate "pump priming" or government creation of fiat money. As witnessed since 1990 in Japan, and in the 1930s in the USA, this policy is not very effective unless government creates employment via public works projects or military manufacturing.

Austrians and keynesians agree on the idea that there are counterproductive cycles of booms and bust but while the former believe the government tends to be a cause of those cycles, the latter believe it is a means to reduce the size of those cycles.

Impacts of deflation

Nominal prices are always somewhat sticky due to institutional factors, therefore a monetary deflation can lead to widespread bankruptcy. Prices fall over a long period of time, as institutional barriers need be broken (ie contract commitments) before the downward price spiral can be fully transmitted to other sectors. Image File history File links Unbalanced_scales. ... Sticky is a term used in the social sciences and particularly economics used to describe a situation in which a variable is resistant to change. ...

Counteracting deflation

Until the 1930s, it was commonly believed by economists that deflation would cure itself. As prices decreased, demand would naturally increase and the economic system would correct itself without outside intervention. Image File history File links Unbalanced_scales. ... Classical economics is a school of economic thought whose major developers include William Petty, Adam Smith, David Ricardo, and John Stuart Mill. ...

This view was challenged in the 1930s during the Great Depression. Keynesian economists argued that the economic system was not self correcting with respect to deflation and that governments and central banks had to take active measures to boost demand through tax cuts or increases in government spending. Reserve requirements from the central bank were high and the central bank could then have effectively increased money supply by simply reducing the reserve requirements and through "open" market operations (e.g., buying treasury bonds for cash) to offset the reduction of money supply in the private sectors due to the collapse of credit (credit is a form of money). For other uses, see The Great Depression (disambiguation). ... This article includes a list of works cited or a list of external links, but its sources remain unclear because it lacks in-text citations. ...

With the rise of monetarist ideas, the focus in fighting deflation was put on expanding demand by lowering interest rates (i.e., reducing the "cost" of money). This view has received a setback in light of the failure of accommodative policies in both Japan and the US to spur demand after stock market shocks in the early 1990s and in 2000 - 2002, respectively. Economists now worry about the (inflationary) impact of monetary policies on asset prices. Sustained low real rates can be the direct cause of higher asset prices and excessive debt accumulation. Therefore lowering rates may prove only a temporarily palliative, leading to the aggravation of a (n eventual) future debt deflation crisis. Monetarism is a set of views concerning the determination of national income and monetary economics. ...

Examples of deflation

United Kingdom

During World War I the British pound sterling was removed from the gold standard. The motivation for this policy change was to finance the First World War; one of the results was inflation, and a rise in the gold price, along with the corresponding drop in international exchange rates for the pound. When the pound was returned to the gold standard after the war it was done on the basis of the pre-war gold price, which, since it was higher than equivalent price in gold, required prices to fall to realign with the higher target value of the pound. “The Great War ” redirects here. ... “GBP” redirects here. ... Ypres, 1917, in the vicinity of the Battle of Passchendaele. ...

Deflation in the United States

Major deflations

There have been two significant periods of deflation in the United States. The first was after the Civil War, sometimes called The Great Deflation. The American Civil War was fought in the United States from 1861 until 1865 between the northern states, popularly referred to as the U.S., the Union, the North, or the Yankees; and the seceding southern states, commonly referred to as the Confederate States of America, the CSA, the Confederacy... The Great Deflation refers to the period from 1870 until 1890 in which world wide prices of goods, materials and labor decreased. ...

"The Great Sag of 1873-96 could be near the top of the list. Its scope was global. It featured cost-cutting and productivity-enhancing technologies. It flummoxed the experts with its persistence, and it resisted attempts by politicians to understand it, let alone reverse it. It delivered a generation’s worth of rising bond prices, as well as the usual losses to unwary creditors via defaults and early calls. Between 1875 and 1896, according to Milton Friedman, prices fell in the United States by 1.7% a year, and in Britain by 0.8% a year.[3]

The second was between 1930-1933 when the rate of deflation was approximately 10 percent/year. The first was possibly spurred by the deliberate policy in retiring paper money printed during the Civil War; the second was part of America's slide into the Great Depression, where banks failed and unemployment peaked at 25%. Both were world-wide phenomena. For other uses, see The Great Depression (disambiguation). ... For other uses, see Bank (disambiguation). ... This article does not cite any references or sources. ...

The deflation of the Great Depression did not occur because of any sudden rise or surplus in output. It occurred because there was an enormous contraction of credit (money), bankruptcies created an environment where cash was in frantic demand, and the Federal Reserve did not adequately accommodate that demand, so even sound banks toppled one-by-one (because they were unable to meet the sudden demand for cash— see Fractional-reserve banking). From the standpoint of the Fisher equation (see above), there was a concommitant drop both in money supply (credit) and the velocity of money which was so profound that deflation took hold despite the increases in money supply spurred by the Federal Reserve. Credit as a financial term, used in such terms as credit card, refers to the granting of a loan and the creation of debt. ... Bankruptcy is a legally declared inability or impairment of ability of an individual or organization to pay their creditors. ... The money base, or the monetary base is a government liability, currency and bank reserves. ... The Federal Reserve System is headquartered in the Eccles Building on Constitution Avenue in Washington, DC. The Federal Reserve System (also the Federal Reserve; informally The Fed) is the central banking system of the United States. ... Fractional-reserve banking refers to the common banking practice of issuing more money than the bank holds as reserves. ... Velocity of money In economics, the velocity of money refers to a key term in the quantity theory of money, which centers on the equation of exchange: M*V = P*Q where M is the total amount of money in circulation in an economy at any one time (say, on...

Minor deflations

Throughout the history of the United States, inflation has approached zero and dipped below for short periods of time (negative inflation is deflation). This was quite common in the 19th century and in the 20th century before World War II. Combatants Allied powers: China France Great Britain Soviet Union United States and others Axis powers: Germany Italy Japan and others Commanders Chiang Kai-shek Charles de Gaulle Winston Churchill Joseph Stalin Franklin Roosevelt Adolf Hitler Benito Mussolini Hideki Tōjō Casualties Military dead: 17,000,000 Civilian dead: 33,000...

Deflation in Hong Kong

Following the Asian financial crisis in late 1997, Hong Kong experienced a long period of deflation which did not end until the 4th quarter of 2004 [4]. Many East Asian currencies devalued following the crisis. The Hong Kong Dollar, however, was pegged to the US Dollar. The gap was filled by deflation of consumer prices. The situation is worsened with cheap commodity goods from Mainland China, and weak consumer confidence. According to Guinness World Records, Hong Kong was the economy with lowest inflation in 2003 [5]. The Asian financial crisis was a financial crisis that started in July 1997 in Thailand and affected currencies, stock markets, and other asset prices in several Asian countries, many considered East Asian Tigers. ... For the band, see 1997 (band). ... Year 2004 (MMIV) was a leap year starting on Thursday of the Gregorian calendar. ... East Asia Geographic East Asia. ... ISO 4217 Code HKD User(s) Hong Kong Inflation 2. ... The United States dollar is the official currency of the United States. ... It has been suggested that this article be split into multiple articles accessible from a disambiguation page. ... ... Guinness World Records 2007 edition. ... Year 2003 (MMIII) was a common year starting on Wednesday of the Gregorian calendar. ...

Deflation in Japan

Deflation started in the early 1990s. The Bank of Japan and the government have tried to eliminate it by reducing interest rates (part of their 'quantitative easing' policy), but despite having them near zero for a long period of time, they have not succeeded. In July 2006, the zero-rate policy was ended. Year 1990 (MCMXC) was a common year starting on Monday (link displays the 1990 Gregorian calendar). ... The Bank of Japan has its headquarters in this building in Tokyo. ... There are very few or no other articles that link to this one. ...

Systemic reasons for deflation in Japan can be said to include:

• Fallen asset prices. There was a rather large price bubble in both equities and real estate in Japan in the 1980s (peaking in late 1989). When assets decrease in value, the money supply shrinks, which is deflationary.

• Insolvent companies: Banks lent to companies and individuals that invested in real estate. When real estate values dropped, these loans could not be paid. The banks could try to collect on the collateral (land), but this wouldn't pay off the loan. Banks have delayed that decision, hoping asset prices would improve. These delays were allowed by national banking regulators. Some banks make even more loans to these companies that are used to service the debt they already have. This continuing process is known as maintaining an "unrealized loss", and until the assets are completely revalued and/or sold off (and the loss realized), it will continue to be a deflationary force in the economy. Improving bankruptcy law, land transfer law, and tax law have been suggested (by The Economist) as methods to speed this process and thus end the deflation.

• Insolvent banks: Banks with a larger percentage of their loans which are "non-performing", that is to say, they are not receiving payments on them, but have not yet written them off, cannot lend more money; they must increase their cash reserves to cover the bad loans.

• Fear of insolvent banks: Japanese people are afraid that banks will collapse so they prefer to buy gold or (United States or Japanese) Treasury bonds instead of saving their money in a bank account. This likewise means the money is not available for lending and therefore economic growth. This means that the savings rate depresses consumption, but does not appear in the economy in an efficient form to spur new investment. People also save by owning real estate, further slowing growth, since it inflates land prices.

• Imported deflation: Japan imports Chinese and other countries' inexpensive consumable goods, raw materials (due to lower wages and fast growth in those countries). Thus, prices of imported products are decreasing. Domestic producers must match these prices in order to remain competitive. This decreases prices for many things in the economy, and thus is deflationary.

In business and accounting an asset is anything owned which can produce future economic benefit, whether in possession or by right to take possession, by a person or a group acting together, e. ... Currier & Ives print on economic bubbles, 1875. ... Ownership equity, commonly known simply as equity, also risk or liable capital, is a financial term for the difference between a companys assets and liabilities -- that is, the value that accrues to the owners (sole proprieter, partners, or shareholders). ... Real estate is a legal term that encompasses land along with anything permanently affixed to the land, such as buildings. ... Year 1989 (MCMLXXXIX) was a common year starting on Sunday (link displays 1989 Gregorian calendar). ... The Economist is a weekly news and international affairs publication owned by The Economist Newspaper Ltd and edited in London, UK. It has been in continuous publication since September 1843. ...

References

• Ben S. Bernanke, Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here, Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke Before the National Economists Club, Washington, D.C.. November 21, 2002
• Michael Bordo & Andrew Filardo, Deflation and monetary policy in a historiscal perspective: remembering the past or being condemned to repeat it?, In: Economic Policy, October 2005, pp 799-844.
• Georg Erber, The Risk of Deflation in Germany and the Monetary Policy of the ECB. In: Cesifo Forum 4 (2003), 3, pp 24-29
• Charles Goodhart and Boris Hofmann, Deflation, credit and asset prices, In: Deflation - Current and Historical Perspectives, eds. Richard C. K. Burdekin & Pierre L. Siklos, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
• International Monetary Fund, Deflation: Determinants, Risks, and Policy Options - Findings of an Independent Task Force, Washington D. C., April 30, 2003.
• International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook 2006 - Globalization and Inflation, Washington D. C., April 2006.
• Otmar Issing, The euro after four years: is there a risk of deflation?, 16th European Finance Convention, 2 December 2002, London, Europäische Zentralbank, Frankfurt am Main
• Paul Krugman, Its Baaaaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap, In: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2, (1998), pp 137-205
• Steven B. Kamin, Mario Marazzi & John W. Schindler, Is China "Exporting Deflation"?, International Finance Discussion Papers No. 791, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington D. C. January 2004.

See also

• Hyperinflation
• Macroeconomics
• Stagflation

Certain figures in this article use scientific notation for readability. ... Circulation in macroeconomics Macroeconomics is a branch of Economics that deals with the performance, structure, and behavior of the economy as a whole. ... This article uses excessive clichés and jargon. ...

External links

• Wiktionary:Deflation
• Cato Policy Report - A Plea for (Mild) Deflation
• Deflation (EH.Net economic history encyclopedia)
• What is deflation and how can it be prevented? (About.com)
• Deflation, Free or Compulsory from Making Economic Sense by Murray N. Rothbard
• Annual Inflation Rate - Japan