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An earthquake prediction is a prediction that an earthquake in a specific magnitude range will occur in a specific region and time window. Predictions are considered as such to the extent that they are reliable for practical, as well as scientific, purposes. Although there is evidence that at least some earthquakes in some tectonic regimes are predictable with useful accuracy of time and space, the reliability and reproducibility of prediction techniques have not been established and are therefore generally not accepted by seismologists. For practical purposes, seismologists bring forth seismic hazard assessment programs by estimating the probabilities that a given earthquake or suite of earthquakes will occur. Download high resolution version (535x716, 149 KB)USGS seismic hazard map showing the probability of a M6. ...
Download high resolution version (535x716, 149 KB)USGS seismic hazard map showing the probability of a M6. ...
If you want to build a house and need to know where the best (or the worst) place to locate for earthquake shaking, then you need to dig up the regional seismic hazard maps. ...
USGS satellite photo of the San Francisco Bay Area. ...
A prediction is a statement or claim that a particular event will occur in the future in more certain terms than a forecast. ...
An earthquake is the result of a sudden release of stored energy in the Earths crust that creates seismic waves. ...
The moment magnitude scale was introduced in 1979 by Tom Hanks and Hiroo Kanamori as a successor to the Richter scale and is used by seismologists to compare the energy released by earthquakes. ...
Seismology (from the Greek seismos = earthquake and logos = word) is the scientific study of earthquakes and the movement of waves through the Earth. ...
If you want to build a house and need to know where the best (or the worst) place to locate for earthquake shaking, then you need to dig up the regional seismic hazard maps. ...
The word probability derives from the Latin probare (to prove, or to test). ...
Accurate Universal Earthquake Forecasting has been around since the 1990's. The "Father of Accurate Universal Earthquake Forecasting is "David Berger" a retired geologist, he lives at 8820 N. Seneca in Valley Center, Kansas 67147. His phone number is 316-755-2118. I know, because "I am David Berger" and here is why Accurate Universal Earthquake Forecasting is REAL. Earthquakes that cause destruction at the surface of the Earth will always be detectable in advance; the only exception to this is when another larger earthquake nearby drowns out the detection of the smaller destructive earthquake; the seismic will still show that destructive pressure already exists though. Earthquakes are detectable days and weeks before they strike using a special seismic system govenments don't have that detects abnormal pressure near the Earths surface. Easily predictable seismic cycles and pulses are detectable during that period of days/weeks on a 24/7 basis; length of time depends on the earthquake, all earthquakes are different. In order to be 100% accurate lots of accurate historical data must be accumulated to rely upon in the future; which isn't that hard, but it takes time, and it is expensive. Accurate Universal Earthquake Forecasts are 100% correct as long as there is plenty of reliable historical data to rely upon, and you don't make the forecast to many days in advance, and you only forecast earthquakes that are greater than 5.0 in magnitude. This special seismic system detects all magnitudes of earthquakes days/weeks in advance; amount of time depends on the earthquake, all earthquakes are different. In order to know "WHEN" an earthquake is going to strike ahead of time, you only need to know when the release occured hundreds or thousands of miles away. Then you simply plot the travel time by the known route (assuming its already known or plotted) and then you will know exactly when the earthquake will strike within less than an hour if your scientists are good. Determining the strike time is as simple a determining when high tide will strike at any point along a flooded stream; the science is the same. The "MAGNITUDE" is easily determined ahead of time by comparison of past isoseismic maps. After the epicenter is located, seismic presures are plotted outward. The size and or pressures of the isoseismic map plotted can be compared with past isoseismic maps and the magnitude determined far in advance. The "EPICENTER" is easily located in advance by constantly moving the mobile seismic system inwards towards the area of more seismic pressure. If your getting less seismic pressure when you move it around, you are getting farther from the epicenter, if the seismic pressure is increasing you are closing in on the epicenter. Once the epicenter is located before the earthquake strikes, determining the exact depth to the "FOCUS" is easy. Simply find the area of background pressure, and that will give you the depth to the FOCUS; sometimes you might have to do some math in hilly or mountainous areas. "VISUAL DETECTION" of an earthquake before or after it strikes is FANTASTIC. Visual detection is the fastest way to find the epicenter of an earthquake, it is also the only known way to see what the fault looks like. Visual detection lets you see a visual representation of the length of the fault in the sky, so you can easily tell which way the fault is laying. Visual detection occurs because there is an emission out of the ground where there is abnormal pressure at the exact location of the fault. Visual detection is similar to magnitude and can be used somewhat to determine the magnitude of an earthquake. Mathematically, the approximate farthest distance you can visually detect any magnitude of earthquake from is multiply 100 times the magnitude and subtract 100 for earthquakes over 1.5 in magnitude. A 7.9 magnitude earthquake would be (100x7.9)-100= approximately 690 miles maximum you could visually detect that particular magnitude of earthquake from before and after it strikes. Visual detection is 24/7 for days/weeks before it strikes; length of time depends on the earthquake, all earthquakes are different. TERROR can be tremendous over this period of time, and is the worst thing that happens to a persons mind when they realize that all they own is most likely going to be gone; except for their life, loved ones, and some things they can move to safety. Lots of destructive earthquakes that occur are man made or man assisted. Facilities all over the world create destructive earthquakes that strike in their own territories and in other countries territories; some strike in good areas where no one is injured, and some kill up to hundreds of thousands of people. WWIII will probably start when some countries find out that other countries are killing their people by the thousands and causing hundreds of millions of dollars in damage. War will start if other countries don't watch out for other countries, and make laws to stop this accidental ruthless killing of people, and destruction of their property. This technology was offered to the USGS in 1996, and to DARPA in 2007; both parties turned down the offers they were given. If any government out there wants to save their people or see if the destructive earthquakes are caused by Man or Nature, then they can purchase my knowledge and they will know if some other country is killing their people and causing millions in damage. Controversy in trying to predict earthquakes
In the effort to predict earthquakes, people have tried to associate an impending earthquake with such varied phenomenon as seismicity patterns, electromagnetic fields, weather conditions and unusual clouds, radon or hydrogen gas content of soil or ground water, water level in wells, animal behavior. The electromagnetic field is a physical field that is produced by electrically charged objects and which affects the behaviour of charged objects in the vicinity of the field. ...
Earthquake clouds are clouds claimed to be signs of imminent earthquakes. ...
General Name, Symbol, Number radon, Rn, 86 Chemical series noble gases Group, Period, Block 18, 6, p Appearance colorless Atomic mass (222) g·molâ1 Electron configuration [Xe] 4f14 5d10 6s2 6p6 Electrons per shell 2, 8, 18, 32, 18, 8 Physical properties Phase gas Density (0 °C, 101. ...
General Name, Symbol, Number hydrogen, H, 1 Chemical series nonmetals Group, Period, Block 1, 1, s Appearance colorless Atomic mass 1. ...
Ethology is the scientific study of animal behaviour (particularly of social animals such as primates and canids), and is a branch of zoology. ...
Thus far, earthquake prediction is controversial because data are sparse and there is little evidence or verified physical theory to link observable phenomena to subsequent seismicity. The frequent practice of polishing predictions after the fact further complicates matters. And, of course, given enough predictions, it is virtually inevitable that some will succeed "by chance." Assessing whether a successful prediction is a fluke is challenging. Most assessments rely on chance models for earthquake occurrence, models that are difficult to test or validate, because large earthquakes are so rare, and because earthquake activity is naturally clustered in space and time.
Earthquake Predictions vs. Accurate Universal Earthquake Forecasts An earthquake prediction is usually meaningless and can be pulled from out of the air by fools; but a Universal Accurate Earthquake Forecast scientifically shows all of the following elements: - The exact location of the epicenter and focus can be pinpointed and the lay of the fault under abnormal pressure outlined hours/days/weeks before earthquakes of all magnitudes strike; length of time depends on the earthquake, all earthquakes are different.
- A specific magnitude or small magnitude range is easily determined by exact pressures detectable at exact distances from the epicenter, which can be mapped isoseismically for size and detected pressures at different distances.
- The specific time window of when the earthquake will strike is easily determined after accurate past data has been collected; it's similar to accurately forecasting exactly when high tide will occur anywhere downstream in a flooding river.
- An accurate universal earthquake forecast can take place anywhere in the world, and is not an estimate or prediction, but an exact science. The earthquake will strike as forecast, as long as the people giving the forecasts are reliable, use accurate historical data, only forecast earthquakes greater than 5.0 and they don't make the forecast to early.
- Some earthquakes cannot be detected/located ahead of time, this occurs because a larger earthquake cloaks them or overpowers them; its similar to listening for a whisper from a person 10 feet away during a hard rock concert that is going full blast, you won't hear the whisper.
- An accurate universal earthquake forecast can also show the "actual chain reaction of earthquakes"; and show the directional push that is occurring.
By: David Berger, 8820 N. Seneca, Valley Center, Kansas 67147 ph: 3167552118 8/24/07
Tidal forces There are two flavors of tidal stressing that have been claimed to generate enhanced rates of earthquakes - diurnal and biweekly tides. The diurnal correlations would arise from more earthquakes only during the hours when the tidal stress is pushing in an encouraging direction, in contrast, biweekly effects would be based on earthquakes occurring during the days when the sinusoidal stressing oscillations are largest. The former, as most easily observed in the twice-daily rise and fall of the ocean tides, have occasionally been shown to influence tides (e.g., [1], this paper shows there may be some weak tidal triggering of shallow, oceanic thrust-faulting earthquakes). The latter, which arises from the periodic alignment of the Sun and Moon, has often been claimed in the popular press to incubate earthquakes (sometimes termed the "syzygy" effect) and occasionally for small datasets in the scientific literature (e.g., [2]), but generally such effects do not appear in careful studies of large datasets. Syzygy, which is not given much credence in the scientific community, is motivated by the observation that, historically, there have been some great earthquakes whose timing with when the tidal forces are near their maximum. For maximum tidal force, three factors must coincide: First, when the moon (in its elliptical orbit) is closest to the earth; second, when it is within a day or two of a new moon (so that the tidal forces of the moon and sun are acting in concert); and third, when the earth (in its elliptical orbit) is at or near its closest distance to the sun. Shallow earthquakes near mid-ocean ridges, volcanic earthquakes, and episodic tremor and slip have also been observed to sometimes correlate with the diurnal tides, with enhanced activity correlating with times that faults are unclamped.
Earthquake prediction in China Chinese earthquake prediction research is largely based on unusual events before earthquakes, such as change of ground water levels, strange animal behavior and foreshocks. They successfully predicted the February 4, 1975 M7.3 Haicheng earthquake[3] Course notes for a workshop held at the Mineral Physics Institute at the Stony Brook University.</ref> and the China State Seismological Bureau ordered an evacuation of 1 million people the day before the earthquake, but failed to predict the July 28, 1976 M7.8 Tangshan earthquake.[4] This failure put Chinese earthquake prediction research in doubt for several years. is the 35th day of the year in the Gregorian calendar. ...
Year 1975 (MCMLXXV) was a common year starting on Wednesday (link will display full calendar) of the Gregorian calendar. ...
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is the 209th day of the year (210th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ...
Year 1976 Pick up sticks(MCMLXXVI) was a leap year starting on Thursday (link will display full calendar) of the Gregorian calendar. ...
The Tangshan earthquake (å山大å°é) of July 28, 1976 is one of the largest earthquakes in loss of life to hit the modern world. ...
Chinese research has now merged with Western research, but traditional techniques are still common. Another successful prediction of the November 29, 1999, M5.4 Gushan-Pianling Earthquake in Haicheng city and Xiuyan city, Liaoning Province, China was made a week before the earthquake. No fatalities or injuries were reported.[5] is the 333rd day of the year (334th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ...
Year 1999 (MCMXCIX) was a common year starting on Friday (link will display full 1999 Gregorian calendar). ...
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(Simplified Chinese: ; Traditional Chinese: ; pinyin: LiáonÃng) is a northeastern province of the Peoples Republic of China. ...
Demeter microsatellite The CNES satellite has made observations which show strong correlations between certain types of low frequency electromagnetic activity and the seismically most active zones on the Earth, and have shown a sharp signal in the ionospheric electron density and temperature near southern Japan seven days before a 7.1 magnitude occurred there (on August 29 and September 5, 2004, respectively).[6] The Centre National dÃtudes Spatiales is the French government space agency (administratively, a public establishment of industrial and commercial character). Its headquarters are located in central Paris. ...
Relationship of the atmosphere and ionosphere The ionosphere is the uppermost part of the atmosphere, distinguished because it is ionized by solar radiation. ...
e- redirects here. ...
In physics, density is mass m per unit volume V. For the common case of a homogeneous substance, it is expressed as: where, in SI units: Ï (rho) is the density of the substance, measured in kg·m-3 m is the mass of the substance, measured in kg V is...
Fig. ...
is the 241st day of the year (242nd in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ...
is the 248th day of the year (249th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ...
Year 2004 (MMIV) was a leap year starting on Thursday of the Gregorian calendar. ...
Animal behavior It is claimed that animals can detect the P-wave or ultrasonic wave generated by a big underground explosion or the rupture of an earthquake, even if the waves are too small for humans' senses. These waves travel faster than the Love and Rayleigh earthquake waves that most strongly shake the ground and causes the most damage; when this happens, animals can detect the incoming earthquake wave, and start behaving agitatedly or nervously. Plane P-wave Representation of the propagation of a P-wave on a 2d grid (empirical shape) One of the two types of elastic body waves (named because they travel through the body of the Earth) that are produced by earthquakes and recorded by seismometers. ...
A baby in its mothers womb, viewed in a sonogram (brightness scan) A baby, aged 29 weeks, in a 3D ultrasound Ultrasound is sound with a frequency greater than the upper limit of human hearing, this limit being approximately 20 kilohertz (20,000 hertz). ...
Others postulate that the animal behavior is simply their response to an increase in low-frequency electromagnetic signals. The University of Colorado has demonstrated that electromagnetic activity can be generated by the fracturing of crystalline rock. Such activity occurs in fault lines before earthquakes. According to recent research, electromagnetic sensors yield statistically valid results in predicting earthquakes — modern science's answer to centuries of human observation of animals.[7] Electromagnetic waves can be imagined as a self-propagating transverse oscillating wave of electric and magnetic fields. ...
The University of Colorado at Boulder (CU-Boulder, UCB officially[2]; Colorado and CU colloquially) is the flagship university of the University of Colorado System in Boulder, Colorado. ...
Some people believe that in these ways, animals sense the immediate onset of earthquakes. In support of this claim, instances are cited when people have witnessed flight of animals just before an earthquake disaster. In fact, according to the Chief conservator of forests for the Indian state of Tamil Nadu, a few minutes before the killer tsunami waves generated by an underwater earthquake hit the Indian coastline in December 2004, a 500-strong herd of blackbucks rushed away from the coastal areas to the safety of a nearby hilltop. Since the beginning of recorded history, observations of unusual animal behavior before earthquakes have been recorded by people from almost all civilizations. The Chinese began a systematic study of this unusual animal behavior and in December 1974 predicted a major earthquake that did, in fact, occur in February 1975. But skeptics claim to debunk nearly all such observations. In fact, the 1975 prediction relied most heavily on a series of strong foreshocks. The animal behavior reports are often ambiguous and not consistently observed. There is little evidence for animals being able to sense impending earthquakes, although it is likely they can sense the initial, weaker P-waves before people. Seismometers remain much more sensitive than even the animals, however. Tamil Nadu (தமிழ் நாடு, Land of the Tamils) is a state at the southern tip of India. ...
The tsunami that struck Malé in the Maldives on December 26, 2004. ...
In folklore, some animals have had more reports of being able to predict earthquakes than others, especially dogs, cats, chickens, horses, and other smaller animals. There have been reports with elephants, as well. Goats, cows, and most larger animals are generally reported as being less able to predict earthquakes. Japan has a long tradition associating catfish with earthquake prediction. From this idea emerged a long university research programme concluding in 2004 in which it was proposed that the (established) high sensitivity of catfish to electric fields was involved in detecting fields of a few hertz because of piezoelectric effects on deeply buried quartz crystals. Actual monitoring of catfish and correlation with earthquakes gave results that are not promising.
Other predictions In early 2004, a group of scientists at the University of California, Los Angeles, lead by Dr. Vladimir Keilis-Borok, predicted that a quake similar in strength to the San Simeon earthquake would occur in a 12,000 square mile (31,100 km) area of Southern California by September of that year. The odds were given as 50/50. The University of California, Los Angeles (generally known as UCLA) is a public university located in Los Angeles, California, United States. ...
Vladimir Keilis-Borok was born in Moscow, Russia on July 31, 1921. ...
For the urban complex straddling the United States-Mexico border, see Bajalta California. ...
In April 2004, the California Earthquake Predicition Evaluation Council (CEPEC) evaluated Keilis-Borok's prediction and reported to the California State Office of Emergency Services.[8] CEPEC concluded that the "uncertainty along with the large geographic area included in the prediction (about 12,400 square miles) leads (us) to conclude that the results do not at this time warrant any special policy actions in California.” The predicted time window came and went with no significant earthquake. The California Earthquake Predicition Evaluation Council (CEPEC) is a committee of earthquake experts that reviews potentially credible earthquake predictions and forecasts. ...
Based on the historic record of the various published efforts to predict a quake, one might conclude that earthquake prediction is usually imprecise, but remains an art that is scientifically and socially useful. According to new research to be published by Prof. Shlomo Havlin, of Bar-Ilan University's Department of Physics, earthquakes form patterns which can improve the ability to predict the timing of their recurrence. In November 2005 (November 11 issue) the journal Physical Review Letters, published by the American Physical Society, published an article by researchers from Israel and Germany that say that there is a way to predict when the next earthquake will hit. Physical Review Letters is one of the most prestigious journals in physics. ...
The American Physical Society was founded in 1899 and is the worlds second largest organization of physicists. ...
Prof. Shlomi Havlin's from Bar-Ilan University in Israel, in collaboration with Prof. Armin Bunde, of the Justus-Liebig University in Giessen, Germany, and Bar-Ilan University graduate student Valerie Livina used the "scaling" approach from physics to develop a mathematical function to characterize earthquakes of a wide range of magnitudes in order to learn from smaller magnitude earthquakes about larger magnitude earthquakes. The team's findings reveal that the recurrence of earthquakes is strongly dependent on the recurrence times of previous earthquakes. Bar-Ilan University (BIU, ××× ××רס××ת ×ר-××××) is a university in Ramat Gan, Israel. ...
The University of Gießen (Giessen), officially called Justus Liebig-Universität Gießen after its most famous member, the founder of modern agricultural chemistry and inventor of artificial fertilizer. ...
This memory effect not only provides a clue to understanding the observed clustering of earthquakes, but also suggests that delays in earthquake occurrences, as seen today in Tokyo and in San Francisco, are a natural phenomenon. In another paper in the journal Nature, Richard Allen of the University of California claims that the distinction between small and large earthquakes can be made from the very first seconds of seismic energy recorded by seismometers, though other scientists are not convinced.[9] If correct this may make earthquake early warning (as distinct from prediction) more powerful. Earthquake early warning provides an alarm that strong shaking is due soon to arrive, and the more quickly that the magnitude of an earthquake can be estimated, the more useful is the early warning. However, earthquake early warning can still be effective without the ability to infer the magnitude of an earthquake in its initial second or two. Nature is one of the most prominent scientific journals, first published on 4 November 1869. ...
Loma Prieta, California From 1968 to 1988 scientists in California mapped seismic activity on a cross section of the fault lines. They identified a "seismic gap" in the Loma Prieta area from various features of the regional seismicity. They therefore concluded that Loma Prieta was due for an earthquake. On 17 October 1989 the Loma Prieta earthquake occurred, initially reported as measuring 7.1 on the Richter scale but later more accurately recorded as moment magnitude 6.9, causing 63 deaths. This prediction, however was not very useful as it could not predict the exact date. is the 290th day of the year (291st in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ...
Year 1989 (MCMLXXXIX) was a common year starting on Sunday (link displays 1989 Gregorian calendar). ...
The Loma Prieta earthquake was a major earthquake affecting the greater San Francisco Bay Area of California. ...
See also Look up forecast in Wiktionary, the free dictionary. ...
An earthquake storm is a recently proposed theory about earthquakes where an earthquake can trigger a series of other large earthquakes within the same tectonic plate as the stress transfers along the fault. ...
Earthquake weather is a type of weather popularly believed to precede earthquakes. ...
An earthquake warning system is a system of accelerometers, communication, computers, and alarms that is devised for regional notification of a substantial earthquake while it is in progress. ...
Jim Berkland, is a controversial retired Geologist who worked many years for the U.S. Geological Survey. ...
Apparent magnitude: up to -12. ...
References - ^ E. S. Cochran and J. E. Vidale and S. Tanaka (2004). "Earth tides can trigger shallow thrust fault earthquakes". Science: 1164-1166.
- ^ John H. Glaser (May 2003). "Tidal correlations of seismicity". Geology: Online Forum - Breathing of the seafloor: pp. e3.
- ^ Glenn Richard (2001). Earthquake Prediction: Haicheng, China - 1975. Earth Science Educational Resource Center. Retrieved on 2006-10-22.
- ^ George Pararas Carayannis. Earthquake Prediction in China. Retrieved on 2006-10-22.
- ^ "海城岫岩地震预测准确", People's Daily, December 6, 1999. Retrieved on 2006-10-22. (In Chinese.)
- ^ Satellite défilant du CNES (France). Retrieved on 2006-10-22. (In French.)
- ^ T. Bleier and F. Freund (December, 2005). "Earthquake [earthquake warning systems]". Spectrum, IEEE 42 (12): 22-27. Retrieved on 2006-10-22.
- ^ California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (March, 2002). Report to the Director, Governor's Office of Emergency Services. Retrieved on 2006-10-22.
- ^ Rachel Abercrombie (November 9, 2005). "The start of something big?". Nature: 171. Retrieved on 2006-10-22.
Year 2006 (MMVI) was a common year starting on Sunday (link displays full 2006 calendar) of the Gregorian calendar. ...
is the 294th day of the year (295th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ...
Year 2006 (MMVI) was a common year starting on Sunday (link displays full 2006 calendar) of the Gregorian calendar. ...
is the 294th day of the year (295th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ...
December 6 is the 340th day of the year (341st in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ...
Year 1999 (MCMXCIX) was a common year starting on Friday (link will display full 1999 Gregorian calendar). ...
Year 2006 (MMVI) was a common year starting on Sunday (link displays full 2006 calendar) of the Gregorian calendar. ...
is the 294th day of the year (295th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ...
Year 2006 (MMVI) was a common year starting on Sunday (link displays full 2006 calendar) of the Gregorian calendar. ...
is the 294th day of the year (295th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ...
Year 2006 (MMVI) was a common year starting on Sunday (link displays full 2006 calendar) of the Gregorian calendar. ...
is the 294th day of the year (295th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ...
Year 2006 (MMVI) was a common year starting on Sunday (link displays full 2006 calendar) of the Gregorian calendar. ...
is the 294th day of the year (295th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ...
is the 313th day of the year (314th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ...
Year 2005 (MMV) was a common year starting on Saturday (link displays full calendar) of the Gregorian calendar. ...
Year 2006 (MMVI) was a common year starting on Sunday (link displays full 2006 calendar) of the Gregorian calendar. ...
is the 294th day of the year (295th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ...
External links Earthquake prediction by geometric relationship of planets, moon, and sun. Elseviers logo. ...
- Astronomical/astrological geometric relationship prediction
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