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Principles for Teaching Economic Forecasting (IREE) (3883 words) |
 | Since an economic forecasting course is not taught in the majority of economics departments (Hanke and Weigand, 1984), economics faculties may have many questions regarding what should be covered in such a course and how to teach this type of course. |
| An economic forecasting class should not be taught (as is sometimes done in statistics classes) where students learn methods but fail to see how these methods are actually used in a firm. |
| A hands-on project will allow a student to be exposed to a forecasting situation and relevant variables (experience), to relate their forecasting knowledge to the forecasting situation (reflection), to formulate the forecasting problem as a forecasting model to be solved (abstraction), and to try different forecasting solutions to see which is most effective (experimentation). |
| The Difficult Art of Economic Forecasting - Finance & Development - December 1996 (1449 words) |
| Revision of economic forecasts is not an uncommon occurrence, however, as those who have tried to predict the paths of business cycles--particularly the turning points--know all too well. |
| Errors generated by a good forecast procedure should be unbiased and serially uncorrelated (i.e., errors should not be related systematically over time), and have no other property indicating that there is information in the data that could be used to improve the forecasts--in other words, the forecasts should be efficient. |
| The average forecast errors for 197794 for output growth and inflation differ considerably across regions of the developing world but are relatively large in comparison with their average absolute actual values. |
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