Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis is an analysis, by political scientist Graham T. Allison, of the Cuban Missile Crisis. Allison used the crisis as a case study for future studies into governmental decisionmaking, and in doing so revolutionized the field of international relations. See also: Political Science Notable political scientists Kenneth Arrow - Nobel Memorial Prize winning economist who published influential paper on his widely cited Arrows Impossibility Theorem Robert Axelrod Duncan Black - Responsible for unearthing the work of many early political scientists, including Charles Dodgson Jean-Charles de Borda - 18th century mathematician... Graham T. Allison is a professor at Harvard University. ... USAF spy photo of one of the suspected launch sites The Cuban Missile Crisis was a confrontation during the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United States regarding the Soviet deployment of nuclear missiles in Cuba. ... Case studies involve a particular method of research. ... International relations (IR), a branch of political science, is the study of foreign affairs of and relations among states within the international system, including the roles of states, inter-governmental organizations (IGOs), non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and multinational corporations (MNCs). ...

Allison originally published the book in 1971. In 1999, because of new materials available (including tape recordings of the U.S. government's proceedings), he rewrote the book with Phillip Zelikow. 1971 (MCMLXXI) was a common year starting on Friday (the link is to a full 1971 calendar). ... 1999 (MCMXCIX) was a common year starting on Friday, and was designated the International Year of Old Farts by the Sometimes-United Nations. ... Philip D. Zelikow is best known as the executive director of the 9/11 Commission. ...

The title is based on a speech by John F. Kennedy, in which he said, "The essence of ultimate decision remains impenetrable to the observer - often, indeed, to the decider himself." John Fitzgerald Kennedy (May 29, 1917 – November 22, 1963), also referred to as John F. Kennedy, JFK, John Kennedy, or Jack Kennedy, was the 35th President of the United States. ...

Thesis

When he first wrote the book, Allison contended that political science and the study of international relations were saturated with rational expectations theories inherited from the field of economics. Under such a view, the actions of states are analyzed by assuming that nations consider all options and act rationally to maximize their utility. Political science is the field of the social sciences concerning the theory and practice of politics and the description and analysis of political systems and political behavior. ... International relations (IR), a branch of political science, is the study of foreign affairs of and relations among states within the international system, including the roles of states, inter-governmental organizations (IGOs), non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and multinational corporations (MNCs). ... Rational expectations is a theory in economics originally proposed by John F. Muth (1961) and later developed by Robert E. Lucas Jr. ... Face-to-face trading interactions among on the New York Stock Exchange trading floor Economics, may just involve more otriches than you think social science, studies the production, distribution, and consumption of commodities. ... In economics, utility is a measure of the happiness or satisfaction gained consuming good and services. ...

Allison attributes such viewpoints to the dominance of economists such as Milton Friedman, statesmen such as Robert McNamara and Henry Kissinger, disciplines such as game theory, and organizations such as the RAND Corporation. However, as he puts it: Milton Friedman (born July 31, 1912) is an American economist, known for his work on macroeconomics, microeconomics, economic history, statistics, and for his advocacy of laissez-faire capitalism. ... Robert Strange McNamara (born June 9, 1916) is an American business executive and a former United States Secretary of Defense. ... Henry Alfred Kissinger (born Heinz Alfred Kissinger on May 27, 1923) is a German-born American diplomat, Nobel laureate and statesman. ... Game theory is a branch of applied mathematics and economics that studies situations where players choose different actions in an attempt to maximize their returns. ... Alternate meanings: See RAND (disambiguation) The RAND Corporation is an American think tank first formed to offer research and analysis to the U.S. military. ...

It must be noted, however, that an imaginative analyst can construct an account of value-maximizing choice for any action or set of actions performed by a government.

Or, to put it bluntly, this approach (which Allison terms the "Rational Actor Model") violates the law of falsifiability. Also, Allison notes that "rational" analysts must ignore a lot of facts in order to make their analysis fit their models. In science and the philosophy of science, falsifiability, contingency, and defeasibility are roughly equivalent terms referring to the property of empirical statements that they must admit of logical counterexamples. ...

In response, Allison constructed three different ways (or "lenses") through which analysts can examine events: the "Rational Actor" model, the "Organizational Behavior" model, and the "Governmental Politics" model.

To illustrate the models, Allison poses the following three questions in each section:

1. Why did the Soviet Union decide to place offensive missiles in Cuba?
2. Why did the United States respond to the missile deployment with a blockade?
3. Why did the Soviet Union withdraw the missiles?

A blockade is any effort to prevent supplies, troops, information or aid from reaching an opposing force. ...

The "Rational Actor" Model

The origin of Allison's first model is explained above. Basically, under this theory:

• Governments are treated as the primary actor.
• The government examines a set of goals, evaluates them according to their utility, then picks the one that has the highest "payoff."

Under this theory, Allison explains the crisis like this:

1. John F. Kennedy, in 1961, revealed that the Soviet Union, despite rhetoric, had far fewer ICBMs than it claimed. In response, Nikita Khrushchev ordered nuclear missiles with shorter ranges installed in Cuba. In one move, the Soviets bridged the "missile gap" while scoring points in the Cold War. Based on Kennedy's failure to back up the Bay of Pigs invasion, they believed the U.S. wouldn't respond harshly.
2. Kennedy and his advisors (ExCom) evaluated a number of options, ranging from doing nothing to a full invasion of Cuba. A blockade of Cuba was chosen because it wouldn't necessarily escalate into war, and because it forced the Soviets to make the next move.
3. Because of mutually assured destruction by a nuclear war, the Soviets had no choice but to bow to U.S. demands and remove the weapons.

John Fitzgerald Kennedy (May 29, 1917 – November 22, 1963), also referred to as John F. Kennedy, JFK, John Kennedy, or Jack Kennedy, was the 35th President of the United States. ... 1961 (MCMLXI) was a common year starting on Sunday (the link is to a full 1961 calendar). ... A Minuteman III missile soars after a test launch. ... Nikita Sergeyevich Khrushchev (Russian: ; IPA: ); surname more accurately romanized as Khrushchyov; April 17, 1894 [O.S. April 5]–September 11, 1971) was the leader of the Soviet Union after the death of Joseph Stalin. ... The mushroom cloud of the atomic bombing of Nagasaki, Japan, 1945, rose some 18 kilometers (11 mi) above the hypocenter. ... For other uses, please see Cold War (disambiguation). ... The Bay of Pigs (Spanish: Bahía de Cochinos) is a bay on the southern coast of the Matanzas Province in Cuba. ... The United States detonated an atomic bomb over Nagasaki on August 9, 1945. ... Mutually assured destruction (MAD) is the doctrine of military strategy in which a full scale use of nuclear weapons by one of two opposing sides would result in the destruction of both the attacker and the defender. ... Nuclear War is a card game designed by Douglas Malewicki, and originally published in 1966. ...

The Organizational Process Model

Allison noted there were many facts that the rational model had to ignore, such as why the Soviets failed to camouflage the nuclear sites during construction, but did so only after U-2 flights pinpointed their locations. Anolis caroliensis showing blending camouflage and counter-shading. ... The Lockheed U-2R/TR-1 in flight The U-2, nicknamed Dragon Lady, is a single-seat, single-engine, high-altitude surveillance aircraft flown by the United States Air Force. ...

He cited work by James G. March and Herbert Simon, which argue that existing governmental bureaucracy places limits on a nation's actions, and often dictates the final outcome. He then proposed the following "organizational process" model propositions: James G. March is Professor Emeritus at Stanford University. ... Herbert Alexander Simon (June 15, 1916 – February 9, 2001) was a researcher in the fields of cognitive psychology, computer science, public administration, economics and philosophy (sometimes described as a polymath). ... Bureaucracy is a concept in sociology and political science referring to the way that the administrative execution and enforcement of legal rules is socially organized. ...

• When faced with a crisis, government leaders don't look at it as a whole, but break it down and assign it according to pre-established organizational lines.
• Because of time and resource limitations, rather than evaluating all possible courses of action to see which one is most likely to work, leaders settle on the first proposal that adequately addresses the issue, which Simon termed "satisficing."
• Leaders gravitate towards solutions that limit short-term uncertainty (emphasis on "short-term").
• Organizations follow set "repertoires" and procedures when taking actions.

Under this theory, the crisis is explained thus: // Economics In economics, satisficing is a behaviour which attempts to achieve at least some minimum level of a particular variable, but which does not strive to achieve its maximum possible value. ...

1. Because the Soviets never established nuclear missile bases outside of their country at the time, they assigned the tasks to established departments, which in turn followed their own set procedures. However, their procedures were not adapted to Cuban conditions, and as a result, mistakes were made that allowed the U.S. to quite easily learn of the program's existence. Such mistakes included such gaffes as supposedly undercover Soviet troops decorating their barracks with Red Army Stars viewable from above.
2. Kennedy and his advisors never really considered any other options besides a blockade or air strikes, and initially, were almost unanimously in favor of the air strikes. However, such attacks created massive uncertainty because the U.S. Air Force couldn't guarantee it would disable all the nuclear missiles. Because the U.S. Navy already had considerable strength in the field, and because Kennedy was able to communicate directly with the fleet's captains, members fell back on the blockade as the only safe option.
3. The Soviets simply did not have a plan to follow if the U.S. took decisive action against their missiles. Khrushchev's communications indicated a high degree of desperation. Without any back-up plan, the Soviets had to withdraw.

Seal of the Air Force. ... The United States Navy (USN) is the branch of the United States armed forces responsible for naval operations. ...

The "Governmental Politics" Model

After reading works by Richard Neustadt and Samuel Huntington, among others, Allison proposed a third model, which takes account of court politics (or "palace politics"). While statesmen don't like to admit they play politics to get things done, especially in high-stakes situations such as the Cuban missile crisis, they nonetheless do. Richard Elliott Neustadt (June 26, 1919 - October 31, 2003) was an American political historian specializing in the U.S. Presidency, and who served as advisor to several Presidents. ... Samuel Phillips Huntington (b. ...

Allison proposed the following propositions for this model:

• A nation's actions are best understood as the result of politicking and negotiation by its top leaders.
• Even if they share a goal, leaders differ in how to achieve it because of such factors as personal interests and background.
• Leaders have different levels of power based on charisma, personality, skills of persuasion, and personal ties to decisionmakers.
• Because of the possibilities of miscommunication, misunderstandings, and downright disagreements, different leaders may take actions that the group as a whole would not approve of.

Allison had to admit that, because the Soviets were not as open with their internal affairs as the Americans, he simply didn't have enough data to fully interpret the crisis with this model. Nonetheless, he made the following attempt: The word charisma (from the Greek word χάρισμα (kharisma), gift or divine favor, from kharizesthai, to favor, from kharis, favor) refers to a rare trait found in certain human personalities usually including extreme charm and a magnetic quality of personality and/or appearance along with innate and powerfully sophisticated personal communicability... It has been suggested that Personality psychology be merged into this article or section. ...

1. Khrushchev came under increasing fire from the Presidium because of Kennedy's revelation of the Soviet lack of ICBMs, as well as American successes in Berlin. Also, the Soviet economy was being stretched, and military leaders were unhappy with Khrushchev's decision to cut the size of the army. Placing missiles in Cuba was a cheap and quick way for him to secure his political base.
2. Because of the failure of the Bay of Pigs invasion, Republicans in the U.S. Congress made Cuban policy into a major issue for the upcoming congressional elections later in 1962. Therefore, Kennedy immediately decided on a strong response rather than a diplomatic one. Although a majority of ExCom initially favored air strikes, those closest to the president - such as his brother and Attorney General, Robert Kennedy, and special counsel Theodore Sorensen - favored the blockade. At the same time, Kennedy got into arguments with proponents of the air strikes, such as Air Force General Curtis LeMay. After the Bay of Pigs fiasco, Kennedy also distrusted the CIA and its advice. This combination of push and pull led to the implication of a blockade.
3. With his plans thwarted, Khrushchev tried to save face by pointing to American missiles in Turkey, a position similar to the Cuban missiles. While Kennedy refused to move these missiles "under duress," he allowed Robert Kennedy to reach a deal with Soviet ambassador Anatoly Dobrynin, in which the Turkish missiles (which Kennedy ordered removed prior to the crisis) would be quietly removed several months later. Publicly, Kennedy also agreed never to invade Cuba.

The Presidium or Praesidium (from Latin praesidium meaning protection or defense so plural presidia or praesidia) is the name for the executive committee of various legislative and organizational bodies. ... Berlin is the capital city and a state of Germany. ... Army (From Latin armata (act of arming) via Old French armée) can, in some countries, refer to any armed force. ... // The Republican Party (often referred to as the GOP, for Grand Old Party) is one of the two major political organizations in the United States two party system; the Democratic Party is the other. ... The Congress of the United States is the legislative branch of the federal government of the United States of America. ... An election is a decision making process whereby people vote for preferred political candidates or parties to act as representatives in government. ... 1962 (MCMLXII) was a common year starting on Monday (the link is to a full 1962 calendar). ... In most common law jurisdictions, the Attorney General is the main legal adviser to the government, and in some jurisdictions may in addition have executive responsibility for law enforcement or responsibility for public prosecutions. ... Robert Kennedy Robert Francis Bobby Kennedy, also called RFK (November 20, 1925–June 6, 1968) was the younger brother of President John F. Kennedy, and was appointed by his brother as Attorney General for his administration. ... Theodore Sorenson (b. ... General Curtis Emerson LeMay. ... The CIA Seal The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is an American intelligence agency, responsible for obtaining and analyzing information about foreign governments, corporations, and individuals, and reporting such information to the various branches of the U.S. Government. ... An ambassador, rarely embassador, is a diplomatic official accredited to a foreign sovereign or government, or to an international organization, to serve as the official representative of his or her own country. ... Anatoly Dobrynin was Soviet Ambassador to the United States, serving from 1962 to 1986 and most notably during the Cuban Missile Crisis; he was appointed by Nikita Khrushchev. ...

Implications

When the book was first published, Allison's primary message was that the concept of mutually assured destruction as a barrier to nuclear war was unfounded. By looking at organizational and political models, such an outcome was quite possible - nations, against what was predicted by the rational viewpoint, could indeed "commit suicide." Mutually assured destruction (MAD) is the doctrine of military strategy in which a full scale use of nuclear weapons by one of two opposing sides would result in the destruction of both the attacker and the defender. ... Nuclear War is a card game designed by Douglas Malewicki, and originally published in 1966. ...

He pointed to several incidents in history that seemed to back this assertion. His most salient point: prior to the attack at Pearl Harbor, Japanese military and civilian leaders, including those responsible for making the decision, were fully aware that they lacked the industrial capacity and military might to win a war against the U.S. They went ahead and attacked anyway. History is the study of human behavior through time. ... Satellite image of Pearl Harbor. ...

He also believed that the organizational model explained otherwise inexplicable gaffes in military history. To return to 1941, he noted that the U.S. intercepted enough evidence to indicate that Japan was about to attack Pearl Harbor, yet the commander did not prepare. The answer, Allison revealed, was not some conspiracy, but that what the intelligence community viewed as a "threat of attack," the commander interpreted as a "threat of sabotage." This miscommunication, due to different viewpoints, allowed the attack to be pulled off successfully - as Allison sarcastically noted, having U.S. planes lined up wing-to-wing was a good plan for avoiding sabotage, but not for surviving an aerial attack. This article is about the year. ... A conspiracy theory attempts to explain the ultimate cause of an event (usually a political, social, or historical event) as a secret, and often deceptive, plot by a covert alliance of powerful people or organizations rather than as an overt activity or as natural occurrence. ...

Likewise, the political process model explained otherwise confusing affairs. Allison pointed to the decision by General Douglas MacArthur to defy his orders during the Korean War and march too far north. The reason was not a "rational" change in U.S. intentions, but rather, MacArthur's disagreements with Harry Truman and other policymakers, and how officials allowed MacArthur to make what they considered unwise moves because of concerns over political backlash due to the general's public popularity. Douglas MacArthur (January 26, 1880 – April 5, 1964) was an American general and Medal of Honor recipient, who was Supreme Commander of Allied forces in the Southwest Pacific Area during World War II. He lost the Philippines, but led the defense of Australia, and the recapture of New Guinea, the... Combatants UN combatants: Republic of Korea United States United Kingdom Canada Australia The Netherlands France Philippines Communist combatants: Democratic People’s Republic of Korea People’s Republic of China Soviet Union Commanders Syngman Rhee Chung Il Kwon Douglas MacArthur Mark W. Clark Matthew Ridgway Kim Il-sung Choi Yong-kun... For the victim of Mt. ...

Above all, he described using rational actor models as dangerous. By using such models (and modes of thinking), people made unreliable assumptions about reality, which could have disastrous consequences. Part of what allowed the attack on Pearl Harbor to be pulled off was the assumption that, since Japan would lose such a war, they would never dare attack. The assumption under MAD is that nobody will ever start a nuclear war because of its consequences. However, humans are not inextricably bound to act in a rational manner, which history has proven time and time again.

While Allison did not claim that any of his additional two models could fully explain anything, he noted that policymakers and analysts alike would benefit from stepping away from the traditional model and exploring alternate viewpoints (although this last remark could be viewed as facetious on Allison's part).

Criticism

The book is part of an ongoing argument between supporters of rational expectations theories and analysts who look for alternative explanations.

Milton Friedman, in particular, has countered that, even if rational expectational theories do not describe reality per se, they should be kept since they provide accurate predictions (instrumentalism). Allison countered that Friedman has not provided enough evidence to demonstrate his theories actually predict anything, and criticizes his arguments as unscientific. Milton Friedman (born July 31, 1912) is an American economist, known for his work on macroeconomics, microeconomics, economic history, statistics, and for his advocacy of laissez-faire capitalism. ... In the philosophy of science, instrumentalism is the view that concepts and theories are merely useful instruments whose worth is measured not by whether the concepts and theories are true or false (or correctly depict reality), but how effective they are in explaining and predicting phenomena. ...

Another argument (again, made by Friedman) is that the information needed for Allison's bureaucratic and political models is so large that it is impractical to use in such a crisis. Allison has conceded this is true, but argued that this does not mean a person should automatically revert back to the rational actor worldview.

Moreover, Allison pointed out that the "rational actor" model continues to be applied even in long-term analyses (i.e., analyses that take place long after the event or "crisis" is past). In Essence of Decision, Allison suggests that support for rational actor models among analysts is due less to theoretical concerns than to simple laziness, sarcarstically quoting Thomas Schelling's description of rationalistic thinking: For the German philosopher see Friedrich Wilhelm Joseph von Schelling. ...

You can sit in your armchair and try to predict how people will behave by asking how you would behave if you had your wits around you. You get, free of charge, a lot of vicarious, empirical behavior.

Finally, Allison was strongly criticized for using his added theories to make his own assumptions. One of the most cited - in the 1971 edition, according to his political model, he postulated that Kennedy must have made an "under the table" agreement concerning the Turkish missiles, probably using his brother as a liaison. However, when tapes of ExComm's proceedings were released in the 1990s, it turned out that Allison was entirely correct, which both silenced these critics and added to the book's stature.

References

Allison, Graham (1971). Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, 1ed. Little Brown. ISBN 0-673-39412-3.

Allison, Graham and Zelikow, Phillip (1999). Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, 2ed. Longman. ISBN 0-321-01349-2.