Scope/intensity grid from Bostrom's existential risk paper.

In future studies, an existential risk is a risk that is both global and terminal. Nick Bostrom defines an existential risk as a risk "where an adverse outcome would either annihilate Earth-originating intelligent life or permanently and drastically curtail its potential." The term is frequently used in transhumanist and Singularitarian communities to describe disaster and doomsday scenarios caused by bioterrorism, non-Friendly superintelligence, misuse of molecular nanotechnology, or other sources of danger. Image File history File links No higher resolution available. ... Image File history File links No higher resolution available. ... Futures studies researches the medium-term to long-term future of societies and of the physical world, mechanisms of change, and the driving forces of change. ... Nick Bostrom (Boström in the original Swedish) is a philosopher at the University of Oxford, and known for his work on the anthropic principle. ... Transhumanism is an emergent school of speculative philosophy analysing or favouring the use of science and technology, especially neurotechnology, biotechnology, and nanotechnology, to overcome human limitations and improve the human condition. ... Singularitarianism is a moral philosophy based upon the belief that a technological singularity is possible, advocating deliberate action to effect and ensure its safety. ... Look up doomsday in Wiktionary, the free dictionary. ... A Friendly artificial intelligence or FAI is an artificial intelligence (AI) which has a positive rather than negative effect on humanity. ... Molecular nanotechnology (MNT) is the concept of engineering functional mechanical systems at the molecular scale. ...

Among the grimmest warnings of existential risks from advanced technology are those of computer scientist Bill Joy, who envisages the possibility of global destruction as new technologies become increasingly powerful and uncontrollable, and Martin Rees who has written about an extensive range of risks to human survival. Environmentalist Bill McKibben fears that human life will come to seem meaningless if certain historical limits to human technological capabilities are exceeded. The risk perceived here is psychological, rather than physical, but it would involve a universal and irreversible diminution of human life. Bill Joy William Nelson Joy (born Nov 8, 1954), commonly known as Bill Joy, is an American computer scientist. ... The Right Honourable Martin John Rees, Baron Rees of Ludlow, FRS (born 23 June 1942) is a professor of astronomy. ... Bill McKibben attending a 2006 summit via HDTV uplink Bill McKibben is an American environmentalist and writer who frequently writes about global warming, alternative energy, and the risks associated with human genetic engineering. ...

While transhumanism advocates the development of advanced technologies to enhance human physical and mental powers, transhumanist thinkers typically acknowledge that the same technologies could bring existential risks. Generally, transhumanism holds that the potential benefits are at least equal in scope and magnitude to the existential risks (or that the risky technology would be impossible to prevent regardless), and many transhumanists, including Bostrom, are actively engaged in consideration of how these risks might best be reduced or mitigated. Posthuman Future, an illustration by Michael Gibbs for The Chronicle of Higher Educations look at how biotechnology will change the human experience, has become one of the secular icons representing transhumanism. ...

Joel Garreau's book Radical Evolution contains extensive discussion of possible existential risks (and possible radical benefits) from emerging technologies. Joel Garreau (born 1948) is a journalist and author. ...

The articles risks to civilization, humans and planet Earth and human extinction list a number of potential existential risks. Risks to civilization, humans and planet Earth are existential risks that would imperil mankind as a whole and/or have major adverse consequences for the course of human civilization, human extinction or even the end of planet Earth. ... Human extinction would be the extinction of the human species, Homo sapiens. ...

Quote

Our approach to existential risks cannot be one of trial-and-error. There is no opportunity to learn from errors. The reactive approach – see what happens, limit damages, and learn from experience – is unworkable. Rather, we must take a proactive approach. This requires foresight to anticipate new types of threats and a willingness to take decisive preventive action and to bear the costs (moral and economic) of such actions.

-- Nick Bostrom

See also

• Organizations formed to prevent or mitigate existential risks
  • Center for Responsible Nanotechnology - for safe, efficient nanotechnology and Blue Goo
  • Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence - for Friendly AI to help us avoid existential risks
  • Lifeboat Foundation - for the creation of an extra-terrestrial habitat to house reserve population until space colonisation begins
  • Foresight Institute - for safe nanotechnology and a society prepared to handle the consequences of such
  • Center for Genetics and Society - for the relinquishment of genetic technologies which may irrevocably change the definition of "human"
  • Svalbard Global Seed Vault - a doomsday seedbank to prevent important agricultural and wild plants from becoming rare or extinct in the event of a global disaster

The Center for Responsible Nanotechnology (CRN), founded in December, 2002, is a non-profit research and advocacy organization with a focus on molecular manufacturing and its possible effects, both positive and negative. ... The Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence is a non-profit organization with the goal of developing a theory of Friendly artificial intelligence and implementing that theory as a software system. ... A Friendly artificial intelligence (often abbreviated FAI) is an AI designed around the principles of Friendliness theory, a specific model for creating safe and moral AI advanced by researcher Eliezer Yudkowsky and the Singularity Institute. ... The Lifeboat Foundation is a nonprofit organization, devoted to researching the possibilities of existential risk from powerful modern technologies, such as those based on genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics, and proposing policy options to avert or minimise the risks. ... Layers of Atmosphere - not to scale (NOAA)[1] Outer space, sometimes simply called space, refers to the relatively empty regions of the universe outside the atmospheres of celestial bodies. ... Artists conception of a space habitat called the Stanford torus Space colonization, also called space settlement and space humanization, is the hypothetical permanent autonomous (self-sufficient) human habitation of locations outside Earth. ... This article reads like an advertisement, and therefore is not neutral in tone. ... The Center for Genetics and Society is a nonprofit information and public affairs organization in Oakland, California, that provides analysis and educational materials, and organizes conferences and workshops, on the new human genetic and reproductive technologies. ... This article is about modern humans. ... The design of the Seed Vault as of early 2007 The Svalbard Global Seed Vault (Norwegian: Svalbard globale frøhvelv; also called the Norwegian Seed Bank and Svalbard International Seed Vault) is a doomsday seedbank under construction on the Norwegian island of Spitsbergen in the remote arctic Svalbard archipelago. ...

References

External links

• Articles and Essays
  • Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios - The original essay by Nick Bostrom
  • Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgment of global risks - A paper by Eliezer Yudkowsky dealing with human evolutionary psychology and the dangerous prejudices it supplies us with, specifically regarding the possibility of extinction events
  • Human Survival Risks
  • Why the future doesn't need us, Wired, April 2000 - Bill Joy's influential call to relinquish dangerous technologies.
  • Armageddon Online - Daily News and articles about ongoing existential risks

It has been suggested that Seed AI be merged into this article or section. ... Evolutionary psychology (abbreviated EP) is a theoretical approach to psychology that attempts to explain mental and psychological traits—such as memory, perception, or language—as adaptations, i. ... An extinction event (also known as: mass extinction; extinction-level event, ELE) occurs when there is a sharp decrease in the number of species in a relatively short period of time. ...

Bibliography

• Joel Garreau, Radical Evolution, 2005
• Martin Rees, Our Final Hour (UK title: "Our Final Century"), 2003, ISBN 0-465-06862-6