The fog of war is a term used to describe the level of ambiguity in situational awareness experienced by participants in military operations.^[1]

The term seeks to capture the uncertainty regarding own capability, adversary capability and adversary intent during an engagement, operation or campaign; stated in a simplier meaning, for the combatant, the fog of war means the "exaggerated dimensions and unnatural appearance" of things.

Levels

Causes of this ambiguity vary according to the level at which participants are:

Grand Strategic

Ambiguity is related to the political intent, capabilities and logistical strengths of an adversary, sources of information include diplomatic intelligence, secret (or special) intelligence, strategic modelling and data derived from open source intelligence. Participants seek to understand intent of and political motivations. Outcomes at this level may encompass military action but are more concerned with socio-political and economic outcomes from which it will cascade. Grand strategy is military strategy considered at the level of the movement and use of an entire nation state or empires resources. ...

Military Strategic

Militarily the ambiguity experienced at this level relates to the structure, strength, capability and disposition of own and adversary offensive and defensive assets. Own force ambiguity can be caused by failure to report material deficiencies or an unwillingness to escalate concerns, leading to an optimistic view of own capabilities. Adversary ambiguity may be a result of inaccurate intelligence, sources being subverted or deceived, or adversary intelligence presenting a superior picture allowing ones decision cycle to be compromised. The OODA Loop is a concept originated by military strategist Col. ...

Operational

Within the operational theatre the commander undertakes tasks as directed by the Military Strategic level, ambiguity continues to relate to adversary capability and intent but is coupled with own directive ambiguity, the commander not having the full sight of the strategic imperative. As operational tempo increases at this level the ambiguity experienced by the commander is susceptible to delays in communication of the tactical situation and the ebb and flow of own force, and adversary force interaction. The commander seeks to penetrate the fog of war through significant use of reconnaissance assets and a comprehensive Joint Operational Picture.

Tactical

Ambiguity stems from several factors at the tactical level, both by deliberate means by the enemy (including active deception and/or electronic attack on communications and sensors) as well as factors inherent to battle resulting in lack of comprehension by commanders as to the tactical environment, the logistic status of their own units, how they are interacting with each other, or their intentions.

This lack of comprehension can stem from many factors, individually or in combination, such as

• poor reconnaissance
• inaccurate intelligence
• faulty communication

The tempo of decision making at the tactical level is much greater than at other levels, increasing the risk of escalating ambiguity as assumptions build and resources are allocated based on those assumptions.

Experience

The practical experience of the fog of war is most easily demonstrated in the tactical battlespace. It may include military commanders' incomplete or inaccurate intelligence regarding their enemy's numbers, disposition, capabilities, and intent, regarding features of the battlefield, and even including incomplete knowledge of the state of their own forces. Fog of war is caused by the limits of reconnaissance, by the enemy's feints and disinformation, by delays in receiving intelligence and difficulties passing orders, and by the difficult task of forming a cogent picture from a very large (or very small) amount of diverse data. When a force engages in battle and the urgency for good intelligence increases, so does the fog of war and chaos of the battlefield, while military units become preoccupied with fighting or are lost (either destroyed by enemy fire or literally lose their way), reconnaissance and liaison elements become unavailable, and sometimes while real fog and smoke obscure vision. It has been suggested that Process of intelligence be merged into this article or section. ... Mixed reconnaissance patrol of the Polish Home Army and the Soviet Red Army during Operation Tempest, 1944 Reconnaissance is the military term for the active gathering of information about an enemy, or other conditions, by physical observation. ... Mixed reconnaissance patrol of the Polish Home Army and the Soviet Red Army during Operation Tempest, 1944 Reconnaissance is the military term for the active gathering of information about an enemy, or other conditions, by physical observation. ... This article should be translated from material at fr:Liaison. ...

Lineage

The term is ascribed to the Prussian military analyst Carl von Clausewitz, who wrote: "The great uncertainty of all data in war is a peculiar difficulty, because all action must, to a certain extent, be planned in a mere twilight, which in addition not infrequently — like the effect of a fog or moonshine — gives to things exaggerated dimensions and unnatural appearance. [1]" Motto: Suum cuique Latin: To each his own Prussia at its peak, as leading state of the German Empire Capital Königsberg, later Berlin Political structure Duchy, Kingdom, Republic Duke1  - 1525–68 Albert I  - 1688–1701 Frederick III King1  - 1701–13 Frederick I  - 1888–1918 William II Prime Minister1,2... Carl Philipp Gottfried von Clausewitz (June 1, 1780 – November 16, 1831) was a Prussian soldier, military historian and influential military theorist. ...

Much of the modern military's technological efforts, under the rubric of command and control seek to reduce the fog of war. Although even the most advanced technology cannot completely eliminate it, military theorists continue to develop ways to reduce it. In the military: The exercise of authority and direction by a properly designated commander over assigned and attached forces in the accomplishment of the mission. ...

Simulations and games

Abstract and military board games sometimes try to capture the effect of the fog of war by hiding the identity of playing pieces, by keeping them face down or turned away from the opposing player (as in Stratego), or covered (as in Squad Leader)^[2]. Other games, such as the Kriegspiel chess variant playing pieces are hidden from the opponent by tracking them on paper or by using a duplicate, hidden game board. A board game is a game played with counters or pieces that are placed on, removed from, or moved across a board (a premarked surface, usually specific to that game). ... This article is about the board game. ... Squad Leader game package. ... Playing Kriegspiel on ICC internet server. ... A chess variant is any game derived from or related to chess. ...

Solitaire games also by their nature attempt to recreate fog of war using random dice rolls, card draws, or flowcharts to determine events, for example Ambush!. Ambush! is a wargame developed by Avalon Hill. ...

Complex double-blind miniatures wargames, including cloth model training exercises for military commanders, may make use of two identical maps or model landscapes, one or more referees providing limited intelligence to the opposing sides, participants in the roles of sub-unit leaders, and the use of radio sets or intercoms. Bavarian Napoleonic Infantry, 1811, from the historical wargame Volley & Bayonet. ... USS Kitty Hawk (CV-63) kicks off Exercise Valiant Shield, the largest war games of the United States Navy since the Vietnam War. ...

The term "fog of war" has become jargon in military and adventure video and computer games, in the more limited sense of enemy units or characters being hidden from the player. Its first appearance may be in the 1986 game Patton Versus Rommel designed by Chris Crawford, where both human and computer players were subject to fog of war[2]. Often this is done by obscuring sections of the map already explored by the player with a grey fog whenever they do not have a unit in that area to report on what is there. The player can still view the terrain but not any enemy units on it. Similarly in the classic Empire computer game, a player can only observe an enemy unit if it is the vicinity of one of the players units or cities. In some games, such as Command & Conquer: Red Alert 2, it is possible for the player to artificially recreate a fog of war against his opponent. 1986 (MCMLXXXVI) was a common year starting on Wednesday of the Gregorian calendar. ... Patton vs. ... Chris Crawford is a noted computer game designer and writer, responsible for a number of important games in the 1980s, for founding The Journal of Computer Game Design and for organizing the Computer Game Developers Conference. ... Empire (computer game) Empire is a turn-based military game with simple rules and played at a single sitting. ...

References

1. ^ Joint Service Command and Staff College, Advanced Command and Staff Course Notes dated 2001
2. ^ Squad Leader Rulebook, 4th Edition, section 25.0.