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Please also consider changing this notice to be more specific. | Futures studies researches the medium-term to long-term future of societies and of the physical world, mechanisms of change, and the driving forces of change. A depiction of the future of mankind as seen in the motion picture, Blade Runner. ...
For the song by the California punk band Pennywise, see Society (song). ...
The discipline extrapolates present technological, economic and social trends, or attempts to predict future trends. It also includes normative or preferred futures by connecting both extrapolated (exploratory) and normative research to explore better strategies.
History
The intellectual foundations of futures studies probably appeared in the mid-nineteenth century. Bell (1997) suggests that Comte's discussion of the metapatterns of social change presages futures studies as a scholarly dialogue. A stronger argument might be made that futures studies as a field originated in the early twentieth century, intertwined with the birth of systems science in academia, and the idea of national economic and political planning, most notably in the Soviet Union and Eastern bloc countries (Bell, 1997).
The emergence of futures studies as an academic discipline, however, is a post-World War II phenomenon. Differing approaches arose in Western Europe, Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, the post-colonial developing countries, and in the U.S.A (Masini, 1993; Bell, 1997). In the fifties, European nations were re-building their war-devastated continent. In the process, academics, philosophers, writers, and artists explored what might constitute a long-term positive future for humanity as a whole, and their own countries in particular. The Soviet Union and the Eastern bloc countries were also rebuilding, but were doing so in the context of an established national economic planning process, which also required a long-term, systemic statement of social goals. The newly independent developing countries of Africa and Asia faced the challenge of contructing industrial infrastructure from scratch, as well as constructing national identities with concomitant long-term social goals. By contrast, in the United States, futures studies as a discipline emerged from the successful application of the tools and perspectives of systems analysis, especially with regard to quartermastering the war effort. Thus, even today, a schism in perspective lingers between approaches taken by scholars in the U.S. and other countries: U.S. practitioners often focus on applied projects, quantitative tools and systems analysis, whereas Europeans investigate the long-range future of humanity and the planet, how that future might be constituted, what symbols and semantics might be used to express it, and by whom it might be articulated (Slaughter, 1995; Sardar, 1999). With regard to futures studies within the former centrally planned economies, or within the newly developing countries, differences with U.S. futures practice exist primarily because futures researchers in the U.S. have no opportunity to engage in national planning, nor are they called upon to construct national symbols.
By the late 1960's, enough scholars, philosophers, writers and artists around the world were questioning and exploring possible long-range futures for humanity to form an international dialogue. This discussion on the intersection of population growth, resource availability and use, economic growth, quality of life, and environmental sustainability -- referred to as the "global problematique" -- was brought to wide public attention by the Limits to Growth study sponsored by the Club of Rome (Meadows, et al. 1972). This international dialogue was institutionalized in the form of the World Futures Studies Federation; its first president was the noted sociologist, Johann Galtung. In the United States, a publisher named Edward Cornish, concerned with these issues, started the World Future Society, an organization focussed more on interested laypeople.
The field currently faces the great challenge of creating a coherent conceptual framework, codified into a well-documented curriculum (or curricula) featuring widely accepted and consistent concepts and theoretical paradigms linked to quantitative and qualitative methods, exemplars of those research methods, and guidelines for their ethical and appropriate application within society. As an indication that previously disparate intellectual dialogues are in fact converging into a recognizable discipline (Kuhn, 1975), two solidly researched and well-accepted first attempts to synthesize a coherent framework for the field have been published: Richard Slaughter's The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies, a collection of essays by senior practitioners, and Wendell Bell's two-volume work, The Foundations of Futures Studies.
History, by region - Europe
- Eastern Europe
- North America
- In 1975, the first US graduate program in Futures Studies, the M.S. Program in Studies of the Future, was founded at the University of Houston-Clear Lake (Markley, 1998); this was followed a year later by the M.A. Program in Public Policy in Alternative Futures at the University of Hawai'i at Manoa (Jones, 1992). The Hawai'i program is particularly interesting in the light of the schism in perspective between European and U.S. futurists; it bridges that schism by locating futures studies within a pedagogical space defined by neo-Marxism, critical political economic theory, and literary criticism. In the twenty-five years since these two programs were founded, single courses in futures studies at all levels of education have proliferated, but complete undergraduate and graduate programs have been few and far between. As a transdisciplinary field, Futures Studies is attractive to the generalists' perspective within the liberal arts, but it unfortunately falls between the cracks of disciplinary boundaries, and has so far failed to achieve recognition within the traditional curricula of the sciences and the humanities.
- Asia
- Africa
Key thinkers Jump to: navigation, search Mahdi ElMandjra (born March 13, 1933) is a Moroccan futurist, economist and sociologist. ...
Herman Kahn Herman Kahn (February 15, 1922-July 7, 1983) was a military strategist and systems theorist employed at RAND Corporation, USA. // Background Born in Bayonne, New Jersey, Kahn grew up in the Bronx, then in Los Angeles following his parents divorce. ...
Jeremy Rifkin (Born in Denver, Colorado in 1943) is the Founder and President of the Foundation on Economic Trends (FOET). ...
Key Concepts - The image of the future (Polak)
- Alternative possible futures
- Creating the future, not predicting it
Jump to: navigation, search Strategic Foresight is a fairly recent attempt to differentiate futurology from future studies. It arises from the premise that: the future is not predictable; the future is not predetermined; and future outcomes can be influenced by our choices in the present (Amara (1981)). Strategic Foresight can...
Guidelines for thinking about the future - Any useful idea about the future should appear to be ridiculous (Dator)
- There are no future facts
Elevator speeches Quick definitions and "elevator speeches" (short characterisations of the field): - "Futures studies is a trans-disciplinary, systems-science-based approach to analysing patterns of change in the past, identifying trends and issues of change in the present, and extrapolating alternative scenarios of possible future change in order to help people create the futures they most desire." (Schultz, 1996)
Academic Programs Jump to: navigation, search Curtin may refer to several people: Andrew Gregg Curtin, former Governor of Pennsylvania Brian Curtin, controversial Irish judge Hoyt Curtin, composer and music producer Jane Curtin, American comedian and actress Jim Curtin, American soccer player John Curtin, former Prime Minister of Australia Matt Curtin, computer scientist...
Established in 1996, the University of the Sunshine Coast is a very small public university (by Australian standards), having fewer than 4,000 students. ...
The Charles University of Prague (also simply University of Prague; Czech: Univerzita Karlova; Latin: Universitas Carolina) is the oldest and most prestigious Czech university and among the oldest universities in Europe, being founded in 1340s (for the exact year, see below). ...
The North American College at the Gregorian The Pontifical Gregorian University is a Roman Catholic theological seminary in Rome. ...
ITESM is the Instituto Tecnologico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey, located in Monterrey, Mexico, is also known as the Tec de Monterrey, or simply Tec. The name is translated into English as the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Studies (for this reason, some call it the Mexican MIT...
Moscow State University campus M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University (Russian: МоÑковÑкий ГоÑударÑтвенный УниверÑитет имени Ðœ.Ð’.ЛомоноÑова, often abbreviated МГУ, MSU, MGU) is the largest and oldest university in Russia, founded in 1755. ...
Stellenbosch University is an internationally recognised university which is situated in the town of Stellenbosch, South Africa. ...
Jean Charlots mural called Commencement is featured at Bachman Hall, the administrative center of the University of Hawai`i System. ...
Jump to: navigation, search Partial view of the University of Houston campus looking northwest to Downtown Houston Motto Founded 1927 School type Flagship State University President Jay Gogue, Ph. ...
Regent University is a Christian university with its main campus in Virginia Beach, Virginia and a satellite campus in Alexandria, Virginia. ...
Professional Organisations - Association of Professional Futurists
- Several organizations for futurists exist. For instance, the Association of Professional Futurists aims to promote futurists as valuable professionals through networking, conferences, and other activities involving its members.
- World Future Society
- World Futures Studies Federation
A profession is a specialized work function within society, generally performed by a professional. ...
Research Centres - Australia Foresight Institute, Swinburne University of Technology
- Futures Research Centre, Corvinus University
- Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku School of Economics and Business Administration
- Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, University of Hawai'i at Manoa
- Institute for Futures Research, University of Houston
Foundations The Club of Rome is a global think tank that deals with a variety of international political issues. ...
Publications - Journal of Futures Studies
- Foresight
- Futures
- Futures Research Quarterly
- Futurist
- State of the Future
The annual State of the Future (print edition) assesses 15 Global Challenges, updates the State of the Future Index, gives brief summaries of other reseach during the year, and contains a CD an annotated scenario bibiograph of over 550 secenario sets, and research results and methods of all major research...
Terminology The discipline goes by different terms, depending on the cultural context, including future studies, futurism, futurology, prospective (France), and prospectiva (Latin America). Futures studies has become the common term in the English-speaking world, while futurologists themselves often speak of Strategic Foresight (Strategic Foresight). [15] [16] Latin America consists of the countries of South America and some of North America (including Central America and some the islands of the Caribbean) whose inhabitants mostly speak Romance languages, although Native American languages are also spoken. ...
Jump to: navigation, search Strategic Foresight is a fairly recent attempt to differentiate futurology from future studies. It arises from the premise that: the future is not predictable; the future is not predetermined; and future outcomes can be influenced by our choices in the present (Amara (1981)). Strategic Foresight can...
Methodologies Practitioners of the discipline previously concentrated on extrapolating present technological, economic or social trends, or on attempting to predict future trends, but more recently they have started to examine social systems and uncertainties and to build scenarios. In mathematics, extrapolation is a type of interpolation. ...
Technology (Gr. ...
Economics (deriving from the Greek words οίκω [okos], house, and νÎμω [nemo], rules hence household management) is the social science that studies the allocation of scarce resources to satisfy unlimited wants. ...
// Latin root meaning The term social is derived from the Latin word socius, which as a noun means an associate, ally, companion, business partner or comrade and in the adjectival form socialis refers to a bond between people (such as marriage) or to their collective or connected existence. ...
Look up Trend on Wiktionary, the free dictionary Wikiquote has a collection of quotations related to: Trend The word trend has a number of possible meanings: In statistics, a trend is a long-term movement in time series data after other components have been accounted for. ...
A prediction is a statement or claim that a particular event will occur in the future. ...
A system is an assemblage of inter-related elements comprising a unified whole. ...
Scenario planning is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. ...
Apart from extrapolation and scenarios, many dozens of methods and techniques have uses in futures research; they include:
- the Delphi method
- brainstorming
- morphological analysis
Futures Studies also includes normative or preferred futures, but a major contribution involves connecting both extrapolated (exploratory) and normative research to help individuals and organisations to build better social futures amid a (presumed) landscape of shifting social changes. // The Delphi method and consensus building The Delphi method is a technique aimed at building an agreement, or consensus about an opinion or view, without necessarily having people meet face to face, such as through surveys, questionaires, emails etc. ...
Brainstorming is an organized approach for producing ideas by letting the mind think without interruption. ...
Morphological analysis is a technique developed by Fritz Zwicky for exploring all the possible solutions to a particular technical problem. ...
Practitioners use varying proportions of inspiration and research.
Futures studies, although sometimes based on science, cannot follow the scientific method, as they cannot falsify their predictions except by waiting for the definitive future to happen. They can and do, however, apply many scientific techniques. // What is science? There are different theories of what science is. ...
The characterization element can require extended and extensive study, even centuries. ...
This page discusses how a theory or assertion is falsifiable (disprovable opp: verifiable), rather than the non-philosophical use of falsification, meaning counterfeiting. ...
Practitioners Practitioners of future studies classify themselves as futurists or foresight practitioners (previously "futurologists").
Several authors have become recognized as futurists. They research trends (particularly in technology) and write accounts of their observations, conclusions, and predictions. In earlier eras, futurists followed a cycle of publishing their conclusions and then beginning research on the next book. More recently, they have started consulting groups or earn money as speakers. Alvin Toffler and John Naisbitt exemplify this class. Many business gurus present themselves as futurists. Jump to: navigation, search A consultant (from the latin consultus meaning legal expert) is a professional that provides expert advice in a particular domain or area of expertise such as accountancy, technology, the law, human resources, marketing, medicine, finance or more esoteric areas of knowledge, for example engineering of different...
Alvin Toffler Alvin Toffler (born October 3, 1928) is an American writer and futurist, known for his works discussing the digital revolution, communications revolution, corporate revolution and technological singularity. ...
Futurists have some things in common with the writers of science fiction, and indeed some science-fiction writers, such as Arthur C. Clarke, have acquired a certain reputation as futurists. Some writers, though, show less interest in technological or social developments and use the future only as a backdrop to their stories. For example, in the introduction to The Left Hand of Darkness, Ursula K. Le Guin wrote of prediction as the business of prophets, clairvoyants, and futurists, not of writers: "a novelist's business is lying". Science fiction is a form of speculative fiction principally dealing with the impact of imagined science and technology, or both, upon society and persons as individuals. ...
Jump to: navigation, search Sir Arthur C. Clarke Sir Arthur Charles Clarke (born 16 December 1917) is a British author and inventor, most famous for his science-fiction novel 2001: A Space Odyssey, and for collaborating with director Stanley Kubrick on the film of the same name. ...
Jump to: navigation, search The Left Hand of Darkness is a science fiction novel by Ursula K. Le Guin, published in 1969. ...
Ursula K. Le Guin at an informal bookstore Q&A session, July 2004 Ursula Kroeber Le Guin (born October 21, 1929), is an American author. ...
Categories: Business | Academic disciplines | School subjects ...
Scope Some futurists have tackled cosmological studies, attempting to predict the long-term future of the entire universe, typically predicting either the heat death of the universe or a cosmic Big Crunch. Cosmology is the study of the large-scale structure and history of the universe. ...
The ultimate fate of the Universe is a subject of study in the field of cosmology. ...
Jump to: navigation, search The deepest visible-light image of the cosmos. ...
The heat death is a possible final state of the universe, in which it has reached maximum entropy. ...
In cosmology, the Big Crunch is a hypothesis that states the universe will stop expanding and start to collapse upon itself; a counterpart to the Big Bang. ...
The discipline excludes those who make future predictions through supernatural means, and also usually excludes those people who attempt to forecast the short-term or readily foreseeable future. For instance, future studies would not generally include the work of economists who forecast movements of interest rates over the next business cycle, whereas those predicting the relative wealth of nations or blocs in a generation's time may well class as futurists. Jump to: navigation, search The supernatural (Latin: super- exceeding + nature) comprises forces and phenomena which are beyond the realm of current scientific understanding, and which may actually directly contradict conventional scientific understandings. ...
U.S. Economic Calendar Economics at the Open Directory Project Economics textbooks on Wikibooks The Economists Economics A-Z Institutions and organizations Bureau of Labor Statistics - from the American Labor Department Center for Economic and Policy Research (USA) National Bureau of Economic Research (USA) - Economics material from the organization...
An interest rate is the rental price of money. ...
Jump to: navigation, search An abstract business cycle The business cycle or economic cycle refers to the ups and downs seen somewhat simultaneously in most parts of an economy. ...
As of 2003 over 40 tertiary education establishments around the world teach one or more courses in futures studies. The World Futures Studies Federation has a comprehensive database of futures courses. [17] 2003 is a common year starting on Wednesday of the Gregorian calendar, and also: The International Year of Freshwater The European Disability Year Events January events January 1 Luíz Inácio Lula Da Silva becomes the 37th President of Brazil. ...
Jump to: navigation, search The World Future Studies Federation, (WFSF) is a global network of practicing futurists, researchers, teachers, scholars, policy analysts, activists and others. ...
Marketers have increasingly started to embrace future studies, in an effort to cope with – and benefit from – a hypercompetitive marketplace with fast production cycles. Methodologies range from trendspotting, as popularized by Faith Popcorn [18]; to actionable futurism, which translates classic futurist approaches to the shorter time-horizons deemed appropriate for marketing. [19] Shaping Tomorrow provides a single source website for marketers, strategists and futurists to anticipate the future, manage risk and innovate today. [20] Marketing is the process of planning and executing the pricing, promotion, and distribution of goods, ideas, and services to create exchanges that satisfy individual and organizational goals. ...
Specific topics in futurology Energy development is the ongoing effort to provide abundant and accessible energy, through knowledge, skills and constructions. ...
The Hubbert peak theory, also known as peak oil, is an influential theory concerning the long-term rate of conventional oil (and other fossil fuel) extraction and depletion. ...
The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World (TSE) (Danish: Verdens Sande Tilstand) is a controversial book by political scientist Bjørn Lomborg, which argues that claims made about global warming, overpopulation, declining energy resources, deforestation, species loss, water shortages, and a variety of other global environmental issues...
See also Bloomfield, Masse Author of Mankind in Transition (1993) and The Automated Society (1995). ...
Jump to: navigation, search This is a list of topics related to future studies. ...
The Millennium Project provides an international capacity for early warning and analysis of global long-range issues, opportunities, and strategies. ...
Alternate meanings: See RAND (disambiguation) The RAND Corporation is an American think tank first formed to offer research and analysis to the U.S. military. ...
The annual State of the Future (print edition) assesses 15 Global Challenges, updates the State of the Future Index, gives brief summaries of other reseach during the year, and contains a CD an annotated scenario bibiograph of over 550 secenario sets, and research results and methods of all major research...
Jump to: navigation, search When plotted on a logarithmic graph, 15 separate lists of paradigm shifts for key events in human history show an exponential trend. ...
Jump to: navigation, search Transhumanism (sometimes abbreviated >H or H+) is an emergent philosophy analysing or favouring the use of science and technology, especially neurotechnology, biotechnology, and nanotechnology, to overcome human limitations and improve the human condition. ...
Jump to: navigation, search The World Future Studies Federation, (WFSF) is a global network of practicing futurists, researchers, teachers, scholars, policy analysts, activists and others. ...
References - Bell, Wendell (1997). Foundations of Futures Studies: Human Science for a New Era. Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick, New Jersey, USA.
- Jones, Christopher (1992). “The Manoa School of Futures Studies.” Futures Research Quarterly, Winter,19-25.
- Kuhn, Thomas (1975, c1970). The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, Illinois, USA.
- Markley, Oliver (1998). "Visionary Futures: Guided Imagery in Teaching and Learning about the Future," in American Behavioral Scientist. Sage Publications, New York.
- Masini, Eleonora (1993). Why Futures Studies? Grey Seal Books, London, U.K.
- Meadows, Donella H., D.L. Meadows, J. Randers, and W.W. Behrens (1972). The Limits to Growth. Universe Books, New York, New York, USA.
- Sardar, Ziauddin, ed. (1999). Rescuing All Our Futures. Praeger Studies on the 21st Century, Westport, Connecticut, USA.
- Slaughter, Richard A. (1995). The Foresight Principle: Cultural Recovery in the 21st Century. Adamantine Press, Ltd., London, England.
External links - Shaping Tomorrow Comprehensive trend database, future tools and network
- The World Future Society
- Principia Cybernetica: Links on future development
- Future-Institute
- Future Studies Methodology: Introduction to futuring and methods
- The Institute for the Future: The Institute for the Future (focuses on consumers, technology, health and health-care, workplaces, global commercial trends)
- Institute for Future Studies: (IFS) Institute for Future Studies (focuses on education and technology)
- Strategic Foresight program: graduate program in strategic foresight at Swinburne University - Australia
- Association of Professional Futurists: Professional organization for futurists
- Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
- LongBets future predictions
- Wikicities has a wiki about Future studies: Futures Wiki
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