Futurology is the detailed critical inspection and reasoning of the state in which things will develop in the future on the basis of existing circumstances in history. ^[1] The term literally means the "study of the future".^[2] The term was coined by German professor Ossip K. Flechtheim^[3] in the mid-1940s, who proposed it as a new branch of knowledge that would include a new science of probability. For other uses, see Reason (disambiguation). ... For other uses, see Future (disambiguation). ... This article is about the study of the past in human terms. ... Probability is the likelihood that something is the case or will happen. ...

Description

Main article: Futures studies

In a linear conception of time, the future is the portion of the timeline that has yet to occur, i.e. the place in space-time where lie all events that still have not occurred. In this sense the future is opposed to the past (the set of moments and events that have already occurred) and the present (the set of events that are occurring now). Futurists are those who look to and provide analysis of the future. The discipline is referred to by different terms, depending on the cultural context. Such names include foresight, futurism, prospective and futuribles (in France, the latter is also the name of a foresight journal published only in French), and prospectiva (in Latin America). Futures studies has become the common term in the English-speaking world. Holism (from holon, a Greek word meaning entity) is the idea that the properties of a system cannot be determined or explained by the sum of its components alone. ... Systemic Relating to, or affecting a particular body system; especially the nervous system. ... In special relativity and general relativity, time and three-dimensional space are treated together as a single four-dimensional pseudo-Riemannian manifold called spacetime. ... In futures studies, especially in Europe, the term Foresight has become common as of 2005, embracing activities of thinking, debating, shaping the future (European Commission Foresight Website 2005). ... Futurism (or Futurist) may refer to: Futures studies, the philosophical or academic study of the medium to long-term future (also known as futurology). ... Latin America consists of the countries of South America and some of North America (including Central America and some the islands of the Caribbean) whose inhabitants mostly speak Romance languages, although Native American languages are also spoken. ... The English language is a West Germanic language that originates in England. ...

Futurologists attempt to apply Strategic Foresight for forecasting alternative futures. While forecasting -- i.e., attempts to predict future states from current trends -- is a common methodology, professional scenarios often rely on "backcasting" -- i.e., asking what changes in the present would be required to arrive at envisioned alternative future states. For example, the Policy Reform and Eco-Communalism scenarios developed by the Global Scenario Group rely on the backcasting method. Practitioners of futures studies classify themselves as futurists (or foresight practitioners). Futurology or futures studies (called futurism in the United States) is the study of the medium to long-term future, by extrapolating present technological, economic or social trends, or by attempting to predict future trends. ... Strategic Foresight is a fairly recent attempt to differentiate futurology from futures studies. It arises from the premise that: the future is not predictable; the future is not predetermined; and future outcomes can be influenced by our choices in the present (Amara (1981)). Strategic Foresight can also be practiced at... This article or section does not cite its references or sources. ... “Policy Reform” in addition to its more general meanings, has been used to refer to a future scenario which relies on government action to correct economic market failures and to stimulate the technological investment necessary for sustainable development and the creation of a truly sustainable planetary society. ... There are very few or no other articles that link to this one. ... The Global Scenario Group (GSG) was a team of environmental scholars, headed by Paul Raskin, who used scenario analysis to analyze future paths for world development in the face of environmental pressures and crises. ... This article or section does not cite its references or sources. ...

The modern multi-disciplinary and cross-cultural discipline of futurology, known more generally as futures studies, emerged in the mid-1960's, according to first-generation futurists Olaf Helmer, Bertrand de Jouvenel, Dennis Gabor, Oliver Markley, Burt Nanus, and Wendell Bell.^[4] Futures studies reflects on how today’s changes (or the lack thereof) become tomorrow’s reality. It includes attempts to analyze the sources, patterns, and causes of change and stability in order to develop foresight and to map alternative futures. The subjects and methods of futures studies include possible, probable, and desirable variations or alternative transformations of the present, both social and “natural” (i.e. independent of human impact). A broad field of inquiry, futures studies explores and represents what the present could become from multiple interdisciplinary perspectives. As a discipline it is still early in conceptual and methodological development, grounding, and validation. The Limits to Growth by Dennis Meadows is widely used by corporations as a discipline to challenge strategies composed for long-term growth. Education in the field of Futurology has taken place for some time. Beginning in the United States of America in the 1960s, it has since developed in many different countries. Future studies reflects on how today’s changes (or the lack thereof) become tomorrow’s reality. ... Bertrand de Jouvenel (October 31, 1903, Paris -- March 1, 1987, Paris) was a French philosopher, political economist, and futurist. ... Dennis Gabor (Gábor Dénes) (June 5, 1900, Budapest – February 9, 1979, London) was a Hungarian physicist and inventor who is most notable for inventing holography. ... Dennis Meadows is an economist and co-author of Limits to Growth. ... For other uses, see Corporation (disambiguation). ...

Futures techniques

Main article: Futures techniques

Futurists use a diverse range of forecasting methods including: Futurists use a diverse range of forecasting methods for futures studies including: // The Delphi method is a very popular technique used in Futures Studies. ...

Systems thinking is a social approach using systems theories to create desired outcomes, or change. ... This article needs to be wikified. ... For a company to gain or maintain a sustainable competitive advantage, it must be ever vigilant, watching for changes in the business environment. ... Scenario planning or Scenario thinking is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. ... The Delphi method has been an anticipatory thinking (futures) technique aimed at building an agreement, or consensus about an opinion or view, without necessarily having people meet face to face, such as through surveys, questionnaires, e-mails etc. ... Universe was a 1941 story from Heinleins Future History series (shown here in the 1951 Dell edition). ... A media monitoring service provides clients with documentation, analysis, or copies of media content of interest to the clients. ... This article or section does not cite its references or sources. ... The future workshop is a futures technique developed by Robert Jungk, Ruediger Lutz and Norbert R. Muellert in the 1970ies. ... Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a risk assessment technique for systematically identifying potential failures in a system or a process. ... A futures wheel as described by Jerome C. Gleen. ... A social network is a map of the relationships between individuals, indicating the ways in which they are connected through various social familiarities ranging from casual acquaintance to close familial bonds. ... Systems engineering techniques are used in complex projects: from spacecrafts to chip design, from robotics to creating large software products to building bridges, Systems engineering uses a host of tools that include modeling & simulation, requirements analysis, and scheduling to manage complexity Systems Engineering (SE) is an interdisciplinary approach and means... This is a list of topics related to future studies. ... It has been suggested that this article or section be merged into Trend estimation. ... For other senses of this word see morphology. ... Technology forecasting is forecasting the future characteristics of useful technological machines, procedures or techniques. ...

Futurists and foresight leaders

Methodologies

Main article: Futures_studies' methodologies

Practitioners of the discipline previously concentrated on extrapolating present technological, economic or social trends, or on attempting to predict future trends, but more recently they have started to examine social systems and uncertainties and to build scenarios. Apart from extrapolation and scenarios, many dozens of methods and techniques have uses in futures research. Future studies reflects on how today’s changes (or the lack thereof) become tomorrow’s reality. ... In mathematics, extrapolation is the process of constructing new data points outside a discrete set of known data points. ... Technology (Gr. ... Economics (deriving from the Greek words οίκω [okos], house, and νέμω [nemo], rules hence household management) is the social science that studies the allocation of scarce resources to satisfy unlimited wants. ... Social refers to human society or its organization. ... Look up trend, trendy in Wiktionary, the free dictionary. ... A prediction is a statement or claim that a particular event will occur in the future in more certain terms than a forecast. ... For other uses, see System (disambiguation). ... “Uncertain” redirects here. ... Scenario planning or Scenario thinking is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. ...

Several authors have become recognized as futurists. They research trends (particularly in technology) and write accounts of their observations, conclusions, and predictions. Some futurists share features in common with the writers of science fiction; Indeed, some science fiction writers, such as Arthur C. Clarke, have acquired a certain reputation as futurists. Some writers show less interest in technological or social developments and use the future only as a backdrop to their stories. For example, in the introduction to The Left Hand of Darkness, Ursula K. Le Guin wrote of prediction as the business of prophets, clairvoyants, and futurists, not of writers: "a novelist's business is lying". Science fiction is a form of speculative fiction principally dealing with the impact of imagined science and technology, or both, upon society and persons as individuals. ... Wikiquote has a collection of quotations related to: Arthur C. Clarke Sir Arthur Charles Clarke, CBE (born 16 December 1917) is a British science-fiction author and inventor, most famous for his novel 2001: A Space Odyssey, and for collaborating with director Stanley Kubrick on the film of the same... This article or section may contain original research or unverified claims. ... Ursula Kroeber Le Guin [ˌɜɹsələ ˌkɹobɜɹ ləˈgWɪn] (born October 21, 1929) is an American author. ... In economics, a business is a legally-recognized organizational entity existing within an economically free country designed to sell goods and/or services to consumers, usually in an effort to generate profit. ... For other uses, see Prophecy (disambiguation). ... Clairvoyance, from 17th century French Clair meaning clear and voyant meaning seeing, is a term used to describe the transference of information about an object, location or physical event through means other than the 5 traditional senses (See Psi). ...

Practitioners

Alex Steffen is an award-winning writer, editor and futurist, part of the group of bright green environmentalists influenced by the Whole Earth Catalog and Bruce Sterlings Viridian movement. ... Alvin Toffler Alvin Toffler (born October 3, 1928) is an American writer and futurist, known for his works discussing the digital revolution, communications revolution, corporate revolution and technological singularity. ... Arthur Harkins, Ph. ... Aurelio Peccei (July 4, 1908 - March 14, 1984) was an Italian scholar and industrialist, best known as the founder and first president of the Club of Rome. ... Bertrand deJouvenel (1903-1987) was a French philosopher, political economist and futurist, who established the Association Internationale Futuribles in Paris. ... Bill Joy William Nelson Joy (born Nov 8, 1954), commonly known as Bill Joy, is an American computer scientist. ... The Charles Babbage Institute (also titled the Center for the History of Information Technology) is a research center specializing in the history of information technology, particularly the post-World War II history of digital computing, programming/software, and computer networking. ... Clem Bezold is one of the founders of the Institute for Alternative Futures, and is the current Chairman of the Board. ... Daniel Bell Daniel Bell (born 10 May 1919) is a sociologist and professor emeritus at Harvard University. ... Earl Bakken Earl E. Bakken (born Hennepin County, Minnesota, January 10, 1924) is an American businessman and philanthropist. ... Edgar Morin is a French philosopher and sociobiologist who was born in Paris on July 8, 1921 under his original name Edgar Nahoum. ... Erich Jantsch (1929-1980) was an Austrian astrophysicist who wrote the book The Self-organizing Universe: Scientific and Human Implications of the Emerging Paradigm of Evolution (1980). ... Fred L. Polak is one of the Dutch founding fathers of futures studies. ... Gaston Berger (1896-1960) was a French futurist, who created the Centre International de Prospective in Paris. ... Harlan Cleveland (b. ... Hazel Henderson (born 1933 in Bristol, England) is a futurist and an evolutionary economist. ... Herman Kahn, May 1965 Herman Kahn (February 15, 1922 – July 7, 1983) was a military strategist and systems theorist employed at RAND Corporation, USA. // Born in Bayonne, New Jersey, Kahn grew up in the Bronx, then in Los Angeles following his parents divorce. ... Homer Alex McCrerey (July 29, 1919-1999) became U.S. Navy Meteorologist and oceanographer for CINCPACFLT until 1972. ... Hugo de Garis (born 1947, Sydney, Australia) became an associate professor of computer science at Utah State University. ... Irma M. Wyman (born 19xx) was accepted into the College of Engineering at the University of Michigan in 1945. ... Jacque Fresco with Roxanne Meadows Jacque Fresco (born March 13, 1916) is an industrial engineer, architectural designer, social engineer and futurist based in Florida. ... James Burke James Burke (born November 22, 1936) is a British science historian, author and television producer best known for his documentary television series called Connections, focusing on the history of science and technology leavened with a sense of humour. ... Several people have the name James Martin: James Martin, former Premier of New South Wales James Martin, computer systems design author. ... Jaron Lanier Jaron Lanier (born 1960) is a virtual reality developer. ... Jeremy Rifkin. ... James Allen (Jim) Dator is Professor, and Director of the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, Department of Political Science, University of Hawaii at Manoa. ... John Brunner John Kilian Houston Brunner (September 24, 1934 – August 26, 1995) was a prolific British author of science fiction novels and stories. ... John McHale (born Maryhill, Glasgow 1922, died Houston,Texas 1978) was an artist, a founder member of the Institute of Contemporary Arts, and a founder of the Independent Group, which was a British movement that originated Pop Art which grew out of a fascination with American mass culture and post... John Naisbitt (born Jan. ... John Renesch is a pioneer in the global movement to bring consciousness to the business community, spirit into the workplace and ecological sustainability values into the boardroom. ... John Smart is a developmental systems theorist whose interests include accelerating change, computational autonomy, evolutionary development, and the technological singularity. ... John Zerzan (born 1943) is an American anarchist and primitivist philosopher and author. ... Mahdi ElMandjra Mahdi ElMandjra (born March 13, 1933) is a Moroccan futurist, economist and sociologist. ... Max More (born January 1964, Bristol, England formerly known as Max OConnor) is a philosopher and futurist who writes, speaks, and consults on advanced decision making and foresight methods for handling the impact of emerging technologies. ... Michael E. Arth, born on April 27, 1953, is an American artist, home/landscape/urban designer, futurist, and author. ... Image:Mwalzer large. ... Natasha Vita-More (born Nancie Clark) is an influential transhumanist theorist and futurist. ... Dr Patrick Dixon is a business thinker and futurist. ... Dr. Paul Raskin is President of the Tellus Institute where he directs a team of professionals in environmental, resource, and development policy research. ... Bill Joy (left) with Paul Saffo (right). ... Peter Schwartz is the cofounder and chairman of Global Business Network (a partner of the Monitor Group), a company based in Emeryville, California that works to help big companies think about the future. ... Rear Admiral is a naval commissioned officer rank that originated from the days of Naval Sailing Squadrons and can trace its origins to the British Royal Navy. ... Rear Admiral Grace Murray Hopper (December 9, 1906 – January 1, 1992) was an American computer scientist and United States Navy officer. ... Dr. Raymond Kurzweil (born February 12, 1948) is a pioneer in the fields of optical character recognition (OCR), text-to-speech synthesis, speech recognition technology, and electronic musical keyboards. ... This article needs to be cleaned up to conform to a higher standard of quality. ... Robert Anson Heinlein (July 7, 1907 – May 8, 1988) was one of the most popular, influential, and controversial authors of hard science fiction. ... Robert Anton Wilson Robert Anton Wilson or RAW (January 18, 1932 – January 11, 2007) was a prolific American novelist, essayist, philosopher, psychologist, futurologist, anarchist, and conspiracy theory researcher. ... Robert Heilbroner (March 24, 1919 – January 4, 2005) was an American economist. ... Robert Jungk (1913-1994) was an Austrian writer and journalist who wrote mostly on issues relating to nuclear weapons. ... This article is being considered for deletion in accordance with Wikipedias deletion policy. ... Sohail Inayatullah has been writing in the area of futures studies for over 20 years. ... Stewart Brand speaking September 5, 2004 Stewart Brand (born December 14, 1938 in Rockford, Illinois) is an author, editor, and creator of The Whole Earth Catalog and CoEvolution Quarterly. ... Stephen William Hawking, CH, CBE, FRS, FRSA, (born 8 January 1942) is a British theoretical physicist. ... Strauss and Howe (William Strauss and Neil Howe) are bestselling authors and national speakers based on their proprietary model of generations in American history. ... Summa Technologiae (Sum of Technologies in English) is a 1964 (1967 - second edition) book by polish author StanisÅ‚aw Lem. ... Theodore Kaczynski Theodore John Kaczynski, Ph. ... Thorkil Kristensen (October 9, 1899 – June 26, 1989), was a Danish politician, finance minister, professor in national economy and futurist. ... Willis Harman was President of the Institute of Noetic Sciences in California. ...

See also

General

Biotechnologies, Cybernation, Collective intelligence, Hudson Institute

The structure of insulin Biological technology is technology based on biology, especially when used in agriculture, food science, and medicine. ... This article is about small nations that are not recognized by any world government. ... It has been suggested that symbiotic intelligence be merged into this article or section. ... The Hudson Institute is a right-leaning U.S. think tank, founded in 1961 in Croton-on-Hudson, New York, by the futurist Herman Kahn and other colleagues from the RAND Corporation. ...

Further reading

Listed by date

• Bindé, J. (2001). Keys to the 21st century. New York: Berghahn Books.
• Rescher, Nicholas (1998). Predicting the future. Albany, NY: State Univeristy of New York Press.
• Welfare, S. (1989). New connexions. Harmondsworth: Penguin ELT.
• Shakhnazarov, G. K. (1982). Futurology fiasco: a critical study of non-Marxist concepts of how society develops. Moscow: Progress Publishers.
• Thompson, A. E. (1979). Understanding futurology: an introduction to futures study. Newton Abbot [Eng.]: David & Charles.
• Ferkiss, V. C. (1977). Futurology: promise, performance, prospects. A Sage policy paper. Beverly Hills: Sage Publications.
• Hostrop, R. W. (1973). Foundations of futurology in education. [Homewood, Ill: ETC Publications].
• Flechtheim, O. K. (1966). History and futurology. Meisenheim am Glan: Hain.

Nicholas Rescher (born July 15, 1928 in Hagen, Germany) is an American philosopher, affiliated for many years with the University of Pittsburgh, where he is currently University Professor of Philosophy and Chairman of the Center for the Philosophy of Science. ...

References

Citations and notes