The Global Scenario Group (GSG) was a team of environmental scholars, headed by Paul Raskin, who used scenario analysis to analyze future paths for world development in the face of environmental pressures and crises. Convened by the Tellus Institute and Stockholm Environment Institute in 1995, the GSG based its scenarios on quantitative social, economic, and environmental research from world regions with the help of Pole Star, a comprehensive database and computational framework for representing alternative scenarios. Scenario analysis is a process of analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes (scenarios). ...

In 2002, the GSG formally presented their scenario approach in an essay called Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead. In the essay, the Great Transitions scholars indicate that civilization is currently at a turning point, entering a Planetary Phase of Civilization in which different values regarding the environment, human well-being, and global justice might lead to different scenarios for future development. Three classes of scenarios are discussed – Conventional Worlds, Barbarization, and Great Transitions. Cities are a major hallmark of human civilization. ... Global justice is a concept in political philosophy denoting justice between societies or between individuals in different societies, as opposed to within a specific society. ...

Conventional Worlds

The Conventional Worlds scenarios predict a future which unfolds without major surprises and with the continuity of present values. Market forces, new technologies, and policy adjustments allay environmental pressures as they arise.

Market Forces: The “invisible hand” of the free market corrects for inefficiency and thus staves off environmental crisis. A free market is an idealized market, where all economic decisions and actions by individuals regarding transfer of money, goods, and services are voluntary, and are therefore devoid of coercion and theft (some definitions of coercion are inclusive of theft). Colloquially and loosely, a free market economy is an economy...

Policy Reform: Policy changes continually aim for sustainability by enforcing environmental efficiency wherever possible.

Barbarization

Breakdown: The world descends into conflict and [collapse].

Fortress World: In the face of environmental collapse, the international elite retreat to protected enclaves where they manage remaining natural resources and protect their interests. Outside these enclaves, the remainder of civilization endures poverty and degradation.

The Great Transition

The Great Transition scenarios envision practical, plausible solutions to the social, economic, and environmental pressures which will inevitably worsen as time passes. The Great Transition future is more than simply market and policy adjustments. It is a future in which fundamental societal values change – materialism and self-interest decline replaced by new notions of “the good life” inclusive of human solidarity and environmental sustainability. Sustainability is a systemic concept, relating to the continuity of economic, social, institutional and environmental aspects of human society, as well as the non-human environment. ...

Eco-Communalism: Localism and civil society help bring about the environmental transition. The Great Transitions scholars do not view this path as being incredibly plausible. Civil society or civil institutions refers to the totality of voluntary civic and social organizations or institutions which form the basis of a functioning society as opposed to the force backed structures of a state (regardless of that states political system). ...

New Sustainability Paradigm: Population stabilization, lower consumerism, and greener values create a more humane world. Civilization has a smaller ecological footprint and its members live healthier, more equitable lives.

Applicability of Scenario Analysis

This scenario framework has formed the backbone of numerous global, regional and national scenario assessments and has been adapted for UNEP’s Global Environment Assessment (or Global Environment Outlook). According to their website, “The GSG’s research program continues through an expanded effort called the Great Transition Initiative, that takes the GSG’s scenarios as a point of departure in an effort to widely share a vision of hope and generate greater unity among global citizens.” In addition, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Chance (IPCC) has based environmental assessments on the scenario analysis of the GSG. To meet Wikipedias quality standards, this article or section may require cleanup. ... IPCC is science authority for the UNFCCC The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988 by two United Nations organizations, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to assess the risk of human-induced climate change. The Panel is open to all...

External links

• Tellus Institute– A non-profit environmental policy organization
• Stockholm Environment Insitute – Research institute specializing in environmental sustainability
• Global Scenario Group – An international initiative to examine alternative futures
• Great Transition Initiative – Website specializing in alternative scenario issues

References

• IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
• IPCC Report, Climate Change 2001: Mitigation