The historian's fallacy is a logical fallacy that occurs when one assumes that decision makers of the past viewed events from the same perspective and having the same information as those subsequently analyzing the decision. It is not to be confused with presentism, a mode of historical analysis in which present-day ideas (such as moral standards) are projected into the past. The Historical fallacy, also called the psychological fallacy, is a logical fallacy originally noticed by philosopher John Dewey. ... It has been suggested that this article or section be merged into Fallacy. ... This page is a candidate to be copied to Wiktionary. ...

The fallacy was named in 1970 by David Hackett Fischer, who suggested it was analogous to William James's psychologist's fallacy. Fischer did not suggest that historians should refrain from retrospective analysis in their work, but he reminded historians that their subjects were not able to see into the future. As an example, he cited the well-known argument that Japan's surprise attack on Pearl Harbor should have been predictable in the United States because of the many indications that an attack was imminent. What this argument overlooks, says Fischer, is that there were innumerable conflicting signs which suggested possibilities other than an attack on Pearl Harbor. Only in retrospect do the warning signs seem obvious; signs which pointed in other directions tend to be forgotten. (See also: hindsight bias.) This article needs to be cleaned up to conform to a higher standard of quality. ... This article needs additional references or sources for verification. ... The psychologists fallacy is a fallacy that occurs when an observer presupposes the objectivity of his own perspective when analyzing a behavioral event. ... This article is about the actual attack. ... Hindsight bias, sometimes called the I-knew-it-all-along effect, is the inclination to see events that have occurred as more predictable than they in fact were before they took place. ...

In the field of military history, historians sometimes use what is known as the "fog of war technique" in hopes of avoiding the historian's fallacy. In this approach, the actions and decisions of the historical subject (such as a military commander) are evaluated primarily on the basis of what that person knew at the time, and not on future developments that the person could not have known. This technique was pioneered by the American historian Douglas Southall Freeman in his influential biographies of Robert E. Lee and George Washington. Military history is composed of the events in the history of humanity that fall within the category of conflict. ... The fog of war is a term used to describe the level of ambiguity in situational awareness experienced by participants in military operations. ... Dr. Douglas Southall Freeman (May 16, 1886-June 13, 1953) was an American journalist and author. ... // This article is about the Confederate general. ... George Washington (February 22, 1732 – December 14, 1799)[1] led Americas Continental Army to victory over Britain in the American Revolutionary War (1775–1783), and in 1789 was elected the first President of the United States of America. ...

Other examples of the historian's fallacy:

• Julius Caesar should not have seized power because it would lead to his assassination.
• World War I should not have been fought because it accomplished nothing and led only to World War II.

For other uses, see Julius Caesar (disambiguation). ... “The Great War ” redirects here. ... Combatants Allied powers: China France Great Britain Soviet Union United States and others Axis powers: Germany Italy Japan and others Commanders Chiang Kai-shek Charles de Gaulle Winston Churchill Joseph Stalin Franklin Roosevelt Adolf Hitler Benito Mussolini Hideki Tōjō Casualties Military dead: 17,000,000 Civilian dead: 33,000...

See also

• Cognitive bias
• Translation fallacy
• List of cognitive biases

This article or section does not cite its references or sources. ... In linguistics, the translation fallacy is the concept that essentially no word, phrase, text or speech in one language can be reliably translated into another language without loss, addition or other change of meaning. ... Cognitive bias is distortion in the way humans perceive reality (see also cognitive distortion). ...

References

• Fischer, David Hackett. Historians' Fallacies: Toward a Logic of Historical Thought. New York: Harper Torchbooks, 1970.