John Craig (1663–October 11, 1731) was a Scottish mathematician. Born in Dumfries and educated at the University of Edinburgh, he moved to England and became a vicar in the Church of England. He pwns the ads40 department. // Events Prix de Rome scholarship established for students of the arts. ... October 11 is the 284th day of the year (285th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ... Events 10 Downing Street becomes the official residence of the United Kingdoms Prime Minister when Robert Walpole moves in. ... Motto: (Latin for No one provokes me with impunity)1 Anthem: Multiple unofficial anthems Capital Edinburgh Largest city Glasgow Official language(s) English, Gaelic, Scots 2 Government Constitutional monarchy  - Queen Queen Elizabeth II  - Prime Minister of the UK Tony Blair MP  - First Minister Jack McConnell MSP Unification    - by Kenneth I... Leonhard Euler is considered by many to be one of the greatest mathematicians of all time A mathematician is the person whose primary area of study and research is the field of mathematics. ... The Buccleuch St Bridge Devorgilla Bridge Overlooking Dumfries The Old Bridge House Dumfries ((IPA: ) pronounced dum-freece, not dum-fries) (Dùn Phris in Scottish Gaelic) is a Royal Burgh and town with a population of around 31,146 (37,846 including the Locharbriggs and Cargenbridge areas). ... The University of Edinburgh, founded in 1583, is a renowned centre for teaching and research in Edinburgh, Scotland. ... Motto: (French for God and my right) Anthem: God Save the King/Queen Capital London (de facto) Largest city London Official language(s) English (de facto) Unification    - by Athelstan AD 927  Area    - Total 130,395 km² (1st in UK)   50,346 sq mi  Population    - 2006 est. ... In the broadest sense, a vicar (from the Latin vicarius) is anyone acting as a substitute or agent for a superior (compare vicarious). In this sense, the title is comparable to lieutenant. ... The Church of England is the officially established Christian church[1] in England, and acts as the mother and senior branch of the worldwide Anglican Communion, as well as a founding member of the Porvoo Communion. ...

A friend of Newton, he wrote several minor works about the new calculus. He is mainly known for his book Theologiae Christianae Principia Mathematica (Mathematical Principles of Christian Theology), published in 1698. Sir Isaac Newton, (4 January 1643 – 31 March 1727) [ OS: 25 December 1642 – 20 March 1727][1] was an English physicist, mathematician, astronomer, alchemist, and natural philosopher, regarded by many as the greatest figure in the history of science. ... Calculus is the name given to a group of systematic methods of calculation, computation, and analysis in mathematics which use a common and specialized algebraic notation. ... Events January 4 - Palace of Whitehall in London is destroyed by fire. ...

In the aforementioned book, Craig presents a formula that describes how the probability of a historical event depends on the number of primary witnesses, on the chain of transmission through secondary witnesses, on the elapsed time and on the spatial distance. Using this formula, Craig derived that the probability of the story of Jesus would reach 0 in the year 3150. This year he interpreted as the Second Coming of Christ because of verse 18:8 in the Gospel of Luke. In mathematics and in the sciences, a formula (plural: formulae, formulæ or formulas) is a concise way of expressing information symbolically (as in a mathematical or chemical formula), or a general relatx E=mc² (see special relativity). ... Probability is the extent to which something is likely to happen or be the case[1]. Probability theory is used extensively in areas such as statistics, mathematics, science, philosophy to draw conclusions about the likelihood of potential events and the underlying mechanics of complex systems. ... This article is about Jesus of Nazareth. ... The Second Coming or Last Coming refers to the Christian and Islamic belief in the coming or return of Jesus Christ to fulfill Messianic prophecy, such as the resurrection of the dead, last judgment and full establishment of the Kingdom of God (also called the Reign of God), including the... The Gospel of Luke is the third and longest of the four canonical Gospels of the New Testament, which tell the story of Jesus life, death, and resurrection. ...

His work was poorly received. Several later mathematicians complained about his imprecise use of probability and the unsupported derivation of his formula. Stephen Stigler, in his 1999 book (see references, below) gave a more favorable interpretation, pointing out that some of Craig's reasoning can be justified if his "probability" is interpreted as the log-likelihood ratio. 1999 (MCMXCIX) was a common year starting on Friday, and was designated the International Year of Older Persons by the United Nations. ... A likelihood-ratio test is a statistical test relying on a test statistic computed by taking the ratio of the maximum value of the likelihood function under the constraint of the null hypothesis to the maximum with that constraint relaxed. ...

References

• Stigler, Stephen M. (1999). Statistics on the Table. Harvard University Press. (chapter 13)

Luke 18:8 reads "I tell you that He will avenge them speedily. Nevertheless, when the Son of Man comes, will He really find faith on the earth?" (New King James Version)

External links

• MacTutor: John Craig
• Significant Scots: John Craig