A Malthusian catastrophe (sometimes called a Malthusian check, Malthusian crisis, Malthusian dilemma, Malthusian disaster, Malthusian trap, Malthusian controls or Malthusian limit) is a return to subsistence-level conditions as a result of population growth outpacing agricultural production. Later formulations consider economic growth limits as well. Based on the work of mathematician Thomas Malthus (1766-1834), theories of Malthusian catastrophe are very similar to the subsistence theory of wages. The main difference is that the Malthusian theories predict over several generations or centuries whereas the subsistence theory of wages predicts over years and decades. The following is a list of subsistence techniques: Hunting and Gathering, also known as Foraging freeganism involves gathering of discarded food in the context of an urban environment gleaning involves the gathering of food that traditional farmers have left behind in their fields Cultivation Horticulture - plant cultivation, based on the... Face-to-face trading interactions on the New York Stock Exchange trading floor. ... Thomas Robert Malthus FRS (13 February 1766 – 23 December 1834),[1] was a political economist and British demographer. ... It has been suggested that this article or section be merged with Subsistence theory of wages. ...

An August 2007 science review in The New York Times raised the claim that the Industrial Revolution had enabled the modern world to break out of the Malthusian Trap,^[1] while a front page Wall Street Journal article in March 2008 pointed out various limited resources which may soon limit human population growth because of a widespread belief in the importance of prosperity for every individual and the rising consumption trends of large developing nations such as China and India.^[2] The New York Times is a daily newspaper published in New York City and distributed internationally. ... A Watt steam engine, the steam engine that propelled the Industrial Revolution in Britain and the world. ... The Wall Street Journal is an influential international daily newspaper published in New York City, New York with an average daily circulation of 1,800,607 (2002). ...

Traditional views

In 1798, Thomas Malthus published An Essay on the Principle of Population, describing his theory of quantitative development of human populations: Thomas Robert Malthus FRS (13 February 1766 – 23 December 1834),[1] was a political economist and British demographer. ... An Essay on the Principle of Population was first published anonymously in 1798. ...

I think I may fairly make two postulata. First, That food is necessary to the existence of man. Secondly, That the passion between the sexes is necessary and will remain nearly in its present state. These two laws, ever since we have had any knowledge of mankind, appear to have been fixed laws of our nature, and, as we have not hitherto seen any alteration in them, we have no right to conclude that they will ever cease to be what they now are, without an immediate act of power in that Being who first arranged the system of the universe, and for the advantage of his creatures, still executes, according to fixed laws, all its various operations.
...
Assuming then my postulata as granted, I say, that the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man. Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio.

– Malthus 1798, Chapter 1, online^[3]

A series that is increasing in geometric progression is defined by the fact that the ratio of any two successive members of the sequence is a constant. For example, a population with an average annual growth rate of, say, 2% will grow by a ratio of 1.02 per year. In other words, the ratio of each year's population to the previous year's population will be 1.02. In modern terminology, a population that is increasing in geometric progression is said to be experiencing exponential growth. Diagram showing the geometric series 1 + 1/2 + 1/4 + 1/8 + ... which converges to 2. ... In mathematics, exponential growth (or geometric growth) occurs when the growth rate of a function is always proportional to the functions current size. ...

Alternately, in an arithmetic progression, any two successive members of the sequence have a constant difference. In modern terminology, this is called linear growth. In mathematics, an arithmetic progression or arithmetic sequence is a sequence of numbers such that the difference of any two successive members of the sequence is a constant. ...

If unchecked over a sufficient period of time, and if the ratio between successive sequence members is larger than 1.0, then exponential growth will always outrun linear growth. Malthus saw the difference between population growth and resource growth as being analogous to this difference between exponential and linear growth. Even when a population inhabits a new habitat – such as the American continent at Malthus' time, or when recovering from wars and epidemic plagues – the growth of population will eventually reach the limit of the resource base. (Malthus 1798, chapter 7: A Probable Cause of Epidemics).

Neo-Malthusian theory

Neo-Malthusian theory argues that unless at or below subsistence level, a population's fertility will tend to move upwards. Assume for example that a country has 10 breeding groups. Over time this country's fertility will approach that of its fastest growing group in the same way that Neo-malthusianism is a set of doctrines derived from Thomas Malthuss theory that limited resources keep populations in check and reduce economic growth. ... Fertility is the natural capability of giving life. ...

will eventually come to resemble

regardless of how large the constant a is or how small the constant b is. Under subsistence conditions the fastest growing group is likely to be that group progressing most rapidly in agricultural technology. However, in above-subsistence conditions the fastest growing group is likely to be the one with the highest fertility. Therefore the fertility of the country will approach that of its most fertile group. This, however, is only part of the problem. By the mid 20th century humans had achieved a mastery of technology sufficient to leave the surface of the Earth for the first time and explore space. ...

In any group some individuals will be more pro-fertility in their beliefs and practices than others. According to neo-Malthusian theory, these pro-fertility individuals will not only have more children, but also pass their pro-fertility on to their children, meaning a constant selection for pro-fertility similar to the constant natural selection for fertility genes (except much faster because of greater diversity). According to neo-Malthusians, this increase in fertility will lead to hyperexponential population growth that will eventually outstrip growth in economic production. This appears to make any sort of voluntary fertility control futile, in the long run. Neo-Malthusians argue that although adult immigrants (who, at the very least, arrive with human capital) contribute to economic production, there is little or no increase in economic production from increased natural growth and fertility. Neo-Malthusians argue that hyperexponential population growth has begun or will begin soon in developed countries. For other uses, see Natural selection (disambiguation). ... For other uses, see Gene (disambiguation). ... Human capital refers to the stock of productive skills and technical knowledge embodied in labor. ...

To this can be added that, unknown to Malthus, farmland deteriorates with use. Some areas where there was intensive agriculture in classic times (i.e., the feudal era) had already declined in population because their farmland was worn out, long before he wrote.

At the time Malthus wrote, and for 150 years thereafter, most societies had populations at or beyond their agricultural limits.^{[citation needed]} After World War I, the growth rate of the world's population accelerated rapidly, resulting in predictions by Paul R. Ehrlich and many others of an imminent Malthusian catastrophe. However, the so-called Green Revolution produced a contemporaneous exponential increase in the world's food supply, and the date of the predicted Malthusian collapse had been temporarily forestalled, until the peaking of agricultural production began to occur in the 1990s in several world regions. “The Great War ” redirects here. ... Paul Ralph Ehrlich (born May 29, 1932 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania) is a Stanford University professor and a renowned entomologist specializing in Lepidoptera (butterflies). ... The Green Revolution was the worldwide transformation of agriculture that led to significant increases in agricultural production between the 1940s and 1960s. ...

David Pimentel and Ron Nielsen, working independently, found that the human population has passed the numerical point where all can live in comfort, and that we have entered a stage where many of the world's citizens and future generations are trapped in misery.^[4] There is evidence that a catastrophe is underway as of at least the 1990s; for example, by the year 2000, children in developing countries were dying at the rate of approximately 11,000,000 per annum from strictly preventable diseases.^[5][6] This data suggests that by the standard of misery, the catastrophe is underway. The term 'misery' can generally be construed as: high infant mortality, low standards of sanitation, malnutrition, inadequate drinking water, widespread diseases, war, and political unrest. is the death of infants in the first year of life. ... Percentage of population affected by malnutrition by country, according to United Nations statistics. ... Deforestation of the Madagascar Highland Plateau has led to extensive siltation and unstable flows of western rivers. ...

Regarding famines, data demonstrates the world's food production has peaked in some of the very regions where food is needed the most. For example in South Asia, approximately half of the land has been degraded such that it no longer has the capacity for food production.^[6] In China there has been a 27% irreversible loss of land for agriculture, and continues to lose arable land at the rate of 2,500 square kilometres per year.^[7] In Madagascar, at least 30% of the land previously regarded as arable is irreversibly barren. On the other hand, recent data shows the number of overweight people in the world now outnumbers that of malnourished, and the rising tide of obesity continues to expand in both rich and poor countries.^[8] Map of South Asia (see note on Kashmir). ...

Many technologically developed countries have by 2006 passed through the demographic transition, a complex social development in which total fertility rates drop in response to lower infant mortality, more education of women, increased urbanization, and a wider availability of effective birth control causing the demographic-economic paradox. By the end of the 21st century, these countries could avoid population declines by permitting large-scale immigration. On the assumption that the demographic transition is now spreading to less developed countries, the United Nations Population Fund estimates that human population may peak in the late 21st century rather than continue to grow until it exhausted available resources.^[9] Some have expressed doubt about the validity of the UN projections, claiming that they are below the projections by others.^[6] The most important point is that none of the projections show the population growth beginning to decline before 2050. Indeed, the UN "high" estimate does not decline at all, even out to 2300, indicating the potential for a Malthusian catastrophe.^[9] Demographic transition occurs in societies that transition from high birth rates and high death rates to low birth rates and low death rates as part of the economic development of a country from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economy. ... is the death of infants in the first year of life. ... For other uses, see Birth control (disambiguation). ... Graph of Total Fertility Rate vs. ... A developing country is a country with low average income compared to the world average. ... The United Nations Fund for Population Activities was started in 1969 and renamed the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) in 1987. ...

The actual growth curve of the human population is another issue. In the latter part of the 20th century many argued that it followed exponential growth; however, a more recent view is that the growth in the last millennium has been faster, at a superexponential (possibly hyperbolic, double-exponential, or hyper-exponential) rate.^[10] Alternatively, the apparently exponential portion of the human population growth curve may actually fit the lower limb of a logistic curve, or a section of a Lotka-Volterra cycle. In mathematics, exponential growth (or geometric growth) occurs when the growth rate of a function is always proportional to the functions current size. ... When a quantity grows towards a singularity under a finite variation it is said to undergo hyperbolic growth. ... A double exponential function is a constant raised to the power of an exponential function. ... Tetration (also exponential map, hyperpower, power tower, super-exponentiation, and hyper4) is iterated exponentiation, the first hyper operator after exponentiation. ... The logistic function or logistic curve is defined by the mathematical formula: for real parameters a, m, n, and . ... The Lotka-Volterra equations, also known as the predator-prey equations, are a pair of first order, non-linear, differential equations frequently used to describe the dynamics of biological systems in which two species interact, one a predator and one its prey. ...

World population from 500 AD to 2150, based on UN 2004 projections (red, orange, green) and US Census Bureau historical estimates (black).

Historians have estimated the total human population on earth back to 10,000 BC.^[11] The figure on the right shows the trend of total population from the year 500 AD to 2005, and from there in three projections out to 2150 (low, medium, and high).^[9] If population growth were exactly exponential, then the trend would be a straight line on this semilog graph. The fact that it has been curving upwards indicates faster-than-exponential growth over the last 1500 years of history. However, the United Nations population projections out to 2150 (the red, orange, and green lines) show a possible end to this phenomenon occurring as early as 2050 in the most optimistic scenario, and by 2075 in the "medium" scenario. Image File history File links World-Population-500CE-2150. ... Image File history File links World-Population-500CE-2150. ... In science and engineering, a semi-log graph or semi-log plot is a way of visualizing data that is changing with an exponential relationship. ...

A chart of estimated annual growth rates in world population, 1800-2005. Rates before 1950 are annualized historical estimates from the US Bureau of the Census.

The graph of annual growth rates (below) also does not appear exactly as one would expect for long-term exponential growth. For exponential growth it should be a straight line at constant height, whereas in fact the graph from 1800 to 2005 is dominated by an enormous hump that began about 1920, peaked in the mid-1960s, and has been steadily eroding away for the last 40 years. The sharp fluctuation between 1959 and 1960 was due to the combined effects of the Great Leap Forward and a natural disaster in China.^[12] Also visible on this graph are the effects of the Great Depression, the two world wars, and possibly also the 1918 influenza pandemic. Image File history File links World_population_growth_rates_1800-2005. ... Image File history File links World_population_growth_rates_1800-2005. ... The Great Leap Forward (Simplified Chinese: ; Traditional Chinese: ; Pinyin: ) of the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) was an economic and social plan used from 1958 to 1960 which aimed to use Chinas vast population to rapidly transform mainland China from a primarily agrarian economy dominated by peasant farmers... For other uses, see The Great Depression (disambiguation). ... The 1918 flu pandemic (commonly referred to as the Spanish flu) was a category 5 influenza pandemic caused by an unusually severe and deadly Influenza A virus strain of subtype H1N1. ...

Though short-term trends, even on the scale of decades or centuries, cannot prove or disprove the existence of mechanisms promoting a Malthusian catastrophe over longer periods, the prosperity of a small fraction of the human population at the beginning of the 21st century, and the debatability of ecological collapse made by Paul R. Ehrlich in the 1960s and 1970s, has led some people, such as economist Julian L. Simon, to question its inevitability.^[13] Ecological Collapse refers to a situation where an ecosystem suffers a drastic, if not permanent, reduction in carrying capacity for all organisms, often resulting in mass extinction. ... Paul Ralph Ehrlich (born May 29, 1932 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania) is a Stanford University professor and a renowned entomologist specializing in Lepidoptera (butterflies). ... This article is about the economist Julian Simon. ...

A 2004 study by a group of prominent economists and ecologists, including Kenneth Arrow and Paul Ehrlich^[14] suggests that the central concerns regarding sustainability have shifted from population growth to the consumption/savings ratio, due to shifts in population growth rates since the 1970s. Empirical estimates show that public policy (taxes or the establishment of more complete property rights) can promote more efficient consumption and investment that are sustainable in an ecological sense; that is, given the current (relatively low) population growth rate, the Malthusian catastrophe can be avoided by either a shift in consumer preferences or public policy that induces a similar shift. Kenneth Joseph Arrow (born August 23, 1921) is an American economist, joint winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics with John Hicks in 1972, and the youngest person ever to receive this award, at 51. ...

However, some contend that the Malthusian catastrophe is not imminent. A 2002 study^[15] by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization predicts that world food production will be in excess of the needs of the human population by the year 2030; however, that source also states that hundreds of millions will remain hungry (presumably due to economic realities and distribution issues).

Application to energy/resource consumption

Another way of applying the Malthusian theory is to substitute other resources, such as sources of energy for food, and energy consumption for population. (Since modern food production is energy and resource intensive, this is not a big jump. Most of the criteria for applying the theory are still satisfied.) Since energy consumption is increasing much faster than population and most energy comes from polluting and non-renewable sources, the catastrophe appears more imminent, though perhaps not as certain, than when considering food and population continue to behave in a manner contradicting Malthus's assumptions. Future energy development, providing for the worlds future energy needs, currently faces great challenges. ...

Retired physics professor Albert Bartlett, a modern-day Malthusian, has lectured on "Arithmetic, Population and Energy" over 1,500 times. He published an article entitled Thoughts on Long-Term Energy Supplies: Scientists and the Silent Lie in Physics Today (July 2004). For a response to Bartlett's argument, see two articles on energy and population in Physics Today, November 2004,^[16] and following letters to the editor. Albert A. Bartlett is a retired Emeritus Professor of Physics University of Colorado, Boulder, USA. Professor Bartlett has lectured over 1,500 times on Arithmetic, Population, and Energy. He has famously stated that The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. ... The Rev. ...

A further way of analyzing resource limitation is the dwindling area for storage of soil contaminants and water pollution. The high rate of increase in toxic chemicals in the environment (especially persistent organic chemicals and endocrine altering chemicals) is creating a circumstance of resource limitation (e.g. safe potable water and safe arable land). Excavation of leaking undergound storage tank causing soil contamination Soil contamination is the presence of man-made chemicals or other alteration to the natural soil environment. ... Raw sewage and industrial waste flows into the U.S. from Mexico as the New River passes from Mexicali, Baja California to Calexico, California Water pollution is the contamination of water bodies such as lakes, rivers, oceans, and groundwater caused by human activities, which can be harmful to organisms and...

See also

Albert A. Bartlett is a retired Emeritus Professor of Physics University of Colorado, Boulder, USA. Professor Bartlett has lectured over 1,500 times on Arithmetic, Population, and Energy. He has famously stated that The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. ... Beyond the Limits was a 1992 book continuing the modeling of the consequences of a rapidly growing global population that was started in The Limits of Growth. ... Donella Dana Meadows (March 13, 1941 Elgin, Illinois, USA - February 20, 2001, New Hampshire) was a pioneering environmental scientist, a teacher and writer. ... Cannibals and Kings ISBN 0394407652 (1977) is a book written by Marvin Harris. ... The equilibrium maximum of the population of an organism is known as the ecosystems carrying capacity for that organism. ... Sir Charles Galton Darwin. ... The Club of Rome is a global think tank that deals with a variety of international political issues. ... Demographic transition occurs in societies that transition from high birth rates and high death rates to low birth rates and low death rates as part of the economic development of a country from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economy. ... The dismal science is another, often derogatory, name for economics devised by the Victorian historian Thomas Carlyle. ... <nowiki>Insert non-formatted text hereBold text</nowiki>A famine is a social and economic crisis that is commonly accompanied by widespread malnutrition, starvation, epidemic and increased mortality. ... Future energy development, providing for the worlds future energy needs, currently faces great challenges. ... The Malthusian growth model, sometimes called the simple exponential growth model, is essentially exponential growth based on a constant rate of compound interest. ... Malthusianism is a brand of the Manchester School capitalist-type political/economic thought developed during the industrial revolution on the basis of the writings of Thomas Malthus. ... Medieval demography is the study of human demography in Europe during the Middle Ages. ... Neanderthals, Bandits and Farmers: How Agriculture Really Began (ISBN 0297842587) is a book by the British science writer Colin Tudge. ... Colin Tudge (born 22 April 1943) is a biologist by training and a British science writer who is the author of numerous works on food, agriculture, genetics, and species diversity. ... The Olduvai theory states that industrial civilization (as defined by per capita energy consumption) will have a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years (1930-2030). ... Over-consumption is a concept coined in developing nations to counter the rhetoric of over-population by which developed nations judge them as consuming more than their economy can support. ... Map of countries by population density (See List of countries by population density. ... For other uses, see Peak oil (disambiguation). ... Theoretical Human population increase from 10,000 BC – AD 2000. ... For other uses, see Survivalism (disambiguation). ... The Earth Day flag includes a NASA photo. ... The Tragedy of the Commons is a type of social trap, often economic, that involves a conflict over resources between individual interests and the common good. ... The Ultimate Resource is a 1981 book written by Julian Lincoln Simon challenging the notion that humanity was running out of natural resources. ... Julian Lincoln Simon (February 12, 1932–February 8, 1998) was professor of business administration at the University of Maryland and a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute. ... Map of countries by population — China and India, the only two countries to have a population greater than one billion, together possess more than a third of the worlds population. ...

Notes

The Wall Street Journal is an influential international daily newspaper published in New York City, New York with an average daily circulation of 1,800,607 (2002). ... For other uses, see BBC (disambiguation). ...

References

Peter Turchin, is a world known specialist in population dynamics and mathematical modeling of historical dynamics. ...

External links

• Essay on life of Thomas Malthus
• Malthus' Essay on the Principle of Population
• David Friedman's essay arguing against Malthus' conclusions
• Daniel Quinn's New Renaissance speech
• United Nations Population Division World Population Trends homepage