Minimum Viable Population (MVP) is a statistical estimate used in the branches of biology, ecology and conservation biology. It describes the smallest possible size at which a biological population can exist without facing extinction from natural disasters or demographic, environmental, or genetic stochasticity. The term population rarely refers to an entire species. For example, the undomesticated dromedary is extinct; but there is a large domestic population in captivity and a significant feral population in Australia. Two groups of house cats in separate houses which are not allowed outdoors are also technically distinct populations. Typically, however, MVP is used to refer to a wild population, such as the red wolf. December 2005 : January - February - March - April - May - June - July - August - September - October - November - December- → 31 December 2005 (Saturday) 25-year-old Scottish human rights worker Kate Burton and her parents are freed unharmed in the Gaza Strip by the Palestinian gunmen who kidnapped them two days earlier. ... For Wikipedia statistics, see m:Statistics Statistics is the science and practice of developing human knowledge through the use of empirical data expressed in quantitative form. ... Biology studies the variety of life (clockwise from top-left) E. coli, tree fern, gazelle, Goliath beetle Biology is the science of life (from the Greek words bios = life and logos = word). ... The word ecology is often used in common parlance as a synonym for the natural environment or environmentalism. ... Some conservation biologists have been concerned about the Amazon rainforest. ... Binomial name Camelus dromedarius Linnaeus, 1758 The Dromedary (Camelus dromedarius) is a large even-toed ungulate native to northern Africa and western Asia, and is the best-known member of the camel family. ... Trinomial name Felis silvestris catus Schreber, 1775 For alternative meanings see cat (disambiguation). ... Binomial name Canis rufus Audubon and Bachman, 1851 This article deals with the North American mammal, the red wolf. ...

The exact quantity depends on the circumstances of the population and the exact model used, but the MVP is usually given with a population survival probability of somewhere between ninety and ninety-five percent and calculated for between one hundred and one thousand years, respectively.

The MVP can be calculated using computer simulations known as population viability analysis (PVA), where populations are modelled and future population dynamics are projected. Population viability analysis is a branch of conservation biology dealing with techniques for determining the genetic diversity, spatial and temporal features of a population so as to evaluate the risk of extinction for that population. ...

For example, a PVA (essentially a computer simulation of the population) might be run repeatedly on a giant panda population. It might be found that with a starting population of fifty pandas over one hundred years, the simulated population goes completely extinct thirty out of one hundred runs of the simulation. Various causes may include inbreeding depression, natural disaster, or climate change. Extinction occurring thirty out of one hundred runs would give a survival probability of seventy percent. In the same simulation, but with a starting population of only sixty pandas, the panda population may only go extinct on four of the hundred runs. It is said in such a situation that the panda population is large enough to recover from or to "buffer" the effects of stochastic events. Thus the minimum viable population is sixty pandas. The simulation would be repeated with a larger range of starting sizes to more closely determine the figure. (Note: These statistics were invented for the purpose of this example.) Binomial name Ailuropoda melanoleuca (David, 1869) The panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca black-and-white catfoot) is a mammal usually classified in the bear family, Ursidae, native to central and southern China. ...

MVP does not take human intervention into account. Thus, it is useful for conservation managers and environmentalists; a population may be increased above the MVP using a captive breeding program, or by bringing other members of the species in from other reserves.

There is some debate on the accuracy of PVAs.

References

Shaffer, M. L. (1981). "Minimum Population Sizes for Species Conservation". BioScience 31 (2): 131–134.