The next legislative election for the New South Wales Parliament will be held on Saturday, 24 March 2007. The entire Legislative Assembly and half of the Legislative Council will be up for election. Emblems: Floral - Waratah (Telopea Speciosissima); Bird - Kookaburra (Dacelo Gigas); Animal - Platypus (Ornithorhynchus Anatinus); Fish - Blue Groper (Achoerodus Viridis) Motto: Orta Recens Quam Pura Nites (Newly Risen, How Brightly You Shine) Slogan or Nickname: First State, Premier State Other Australian states and territories Capital Sydney Government Governor Premier Const. ... The Parliament of New South Wales consists of the Governor of New South Wales, the New South Wales Legislative Council and the New South Wales Legislative Assembly. ... March 24 is the 83rd day of the year in the Gregorian Calendar (84th in Leap years). ... 2007 (MMVII) will be a common year starting on Monday of the Gregorian calendar. ... The Legislative Assembly, or lower house, is one of the two chambers of the parliament of New South Wales in Australia. ... The Legislative Council, or upper house, is one of the two chambers of the parliament of New South Wales in Australia. ...

The election will see the Australian Labor Party seek a fourth consecutive term in office, and will be the first election since both major parties changed leaders in 2005; with Morris Iemma replacing Bob Carr as Premier and Labor leader, and Peter Debnam replacing John Brogden as Leader of the Opposition and leader of the Liberal Party. The Australian Labor Party or ALP is Australias oldest political party. ... Morris Iemma Morris Iemma (born 21 July 1961), Australian politician, is the Premier of New South Wales. ... The Hon. ... List of Premiers of New South Wales Before the 1890s there was no formal party system in New South Wales. ... Peter Debnam (born 21 April 1954), Australian politician, is the leader of the Liberal Party in New South Wales and is the Shadow Treasurer, Shadow Minister for Western Sydney, Peter Debham Redfern/Waterloo and Citizenship. ... John Gilbert Brogden (born 28 March 1969) is a former Australian politician. ... The Liberal Party of Australia is an Australian liberal conservative political party. ...

Electoral System

See main article: Electoral systems of the Australian states and territories#New South Wales

The New South Wales Legislative Assembly consists of 93 members, elected in single-member electorates by optional preferential voting. The legislatures of the Australian states and territories all follow the Westminster model described in the Australian electoral system. ... The Legislative Assembly, or lower house, is one of the two chambers of the parliament of New South Wales in Australia. ...

The New South Wales Legislative Council consists of 42 members, elected at large by optional preferential single transferable voting, with 21 elected at each election to serve two Legislative Assembly terms. The Legislative Council, or upper house, is one of the two chambers of the parliament of New South Wales in Australia. ... This STV ballot for the Australian Senate illustrates group voting tickets. ...

Terms are fixed at four years, with elections being held in late March.

Prospects

Legislative Assembly

Seat pendulum following the 2005 redistirbution.

The Legislative Assembly currently consists of:

• 55 members of the Australian Labor Party
• 19 members of the Liberal Party of Australia (originally 20)
• 12 members of The Nationals
• 7 independents (originally 6)

A redistribution of electoral boundaries was conducted in 2005, which did not change the number of seats held by each party. The Liberal Party, however, lost one of its 20 seats to an independent at the Pittwater by-election. The Australian Labor Party or ALP is Australias oldest political party. ... The Liberal Party of Australia is an Australian liberal conservative political party. ... The National Party of Australia is an Australian political party, originally called the Country Party, adopting the name of National Country Party in 1975 and adopting its present name in 1982. ...

A majority being 47 seats, the Labor Party must lose nine seats (a uniform swing of 8.7%) to lose its majority, and the Liberal-National coalition must gain 16 seats to gain a majority. If the Liberal-National coalition gains at least one seat from an Independent, this will require a uniform swing of 11.6%. Otherwise, 12.3% will be required.

Key Seats

The following seats are notionally held by the Labor Party with a margin of less than 14%:

• Tweed - 4% - Held by Neville Newell.
• Monaro - 4.4% - Held by Steve Whan.
• Wollondilly - 4.6% - A new seat, created out of parts of the seats of Camden, Campbelltown and Southern Highlands.
• Penrith - 6.6% - Held by Karyn Paluzzano.
• Port Stephens - 7.2% - Held by John Bartlett (Australian Politician).
• Kiama - 8.3% - Held by Matt Brown (Australian politician).
• Gosford - 8.6% - The Labor-held seat of Peats has been renamed as Gosford, while the Liberal-held seat of Gosford has been renamed as Terrigal. Labor's Marie Andrews holds the seat of Peats, while the current seat of Gosford is held by Liberal member Chris Hartcher.
• Camden - 8.7% - Held by Geoff Corrigan, the former Mayor of Camden, the seat was won off the Liberal Party at the 2003 election.
• Drummoyne - 8.7% - Held by Angela D'Amore.
• Menai - 8.9% - Held by Alison Megarrity.
• Miranda - 9.1% - Held by Barry Collier.
• The Entrance - 9.7% - Held by Grant McBride.
• Maitland - 10.3% - Held by John Price.
• Londonderry - 10.9% - Held by Allan Shearan.
• Lake Macquarie - 11.6% - Held by Jeff Hunter.
• Heathcote - 12.3% - Held by Paul McLeay.
• Wyong - 12.3% - Held by Paul Crittenden.
• Bathurst - 13.1% - Held by Gerard Martin.
• Charlestown - 13.3% - Held by Matthew Morris.
• Riverstone - 13.4% - Held by John Aqualina.
• Coogee - 13.6% - Held by Paul Pearce.
• Parramatta - 13.6% - Held by Tanya Gadiel.

The following seats are notionally held by the Liberal-National coalition with a margin of less than 5%: Monaro is an electoral district of the Legislative Assembly in the Australian state of New South Wales. ... Camden Council is a Local Government Area in New South Wales, Australia. ... Menai is an electoral district of the Legislative Assembly in the Australian state of New South Wales. ... Miranda is an electoral district of the Legislative Assembly in the Australian state of New South Wales. ... Barry Joseph Collier, MP was elected member of the New South Wales Legislative Assembly for Miranda in 1999. ... Londonderry is an electoral district of the Legislative Assembly in the Australian state of New South Wales. ... Heathcote is an electoral district of the Legislative Assembly in the Australian state of New South Wales. ... Riverstone is an electoral district of the Legislative Assembly in the Australian state of New South Wales. ... Parramatta is an electoral district of the Legislative Assembly in the Australian state of New South Wales. ...

• Terrigal - 0.6% - A new seat, it is currently named Gosford, which is held by Liberal MP Chris Hartcher.
• Murray-Darling - 1.4% - Currently held by Labor, this seat has become notionally National following the redistribution.
• South Coast - 1.6% - Held by Liberal Shelley Hancock.
• Lane Cove - 2.8% - Held by Liberal Anthony Roberts.
• Baulkham Hills - 4.0% - Held by Liberal Wayne Merton.
• Hornsby - 4.2% - Held by Liberal Judy Hopwood.
• Goulburn - 4.5% - Newly created in the recent redistribution, Goulburn covers parts of Southern Highlands (Liberal) and Burrinjuck (National). This could lead to a potential conflict for electoral coverage between the coalition partners, or a three-cornered contest, which has been a past problem in the overlapping federal electorate of Hume. It is considered notionally Liberal.
• Bega - 4.7% - Held by Andrew Constance.

The following Independent seats are also significant: The National Party of Australia is an Australian political party. ... Shelley Hancock is an Australian politician. ... Lane Cove is an electoral district of the Legislative Assembly in the Australian state of New South Wales. ... Baulkham Hills is an electoral district of the Legislative Assembly in the Australian state of New South Wales. ... Hornsby is an electoral district of the Legislative Assembly in the Australian state of New South Wales. ... The Division of Hume is an Australian Electoral Division in the state of New South Wales. ...

• Dubbo - This seat was won by Dawn Fardell at the 2004 Dubbo by-election, following the death of Independent MP Tony McGrane. Following the redistribution, the margin was cut from 5% to 0.3%, meaning that this seat will be a target of the Nationals in 2007.
• Manly
• Tamworth
• Pittwater

The following seats may see serious challenges by the Greens: Pittwater is an electoral district of the Legislative Assembly in the Australian state of New South Wales. ... The Greens New South Wales is the state Greens party in New South Wales. ...

• Balmain - Notional 7.1% - Held by Sandra Nori, ALP. Before the 2005 redistribution, this seat was called Port Jackson.
• Marrickville - 5.6% since 2005 by-election - See below for details on the 2005 by-election.
• Ballina.

Marrickville is an electoral district of the Legislative Assembly in the Australian state of New South Wales. ... A by-election or bye-election is a special election held to fill a political office when the incumbent has died or resigned. ... A by-election was held in the State Electoral District of Marrickville in New South Wales, Australia on 17 September 2005. ...

By-elections

There have been six by-elections during the current term of the Legislative Assembly:

• Londonderry, 2003 - Held following the death of Labor MP Jim Anderson on the morning of the 2003 election. Retained by Labor.
• Dubbo, 2004 - Held following the death of Independent MP Tony McGrane. Won by Independent candidate Dawn Fardell against the Nationals. No Labor candidate.
• Maroubra, 2005 - Held following the retirement of Premier Bob Carr. No Liberal candidate contested the by-election, with the seat being retained by the ALP.
• Marrickville, 2005 - Held following the retirement of Deputy Premier Andrew Refshauge. The contest was between Labor's Education Minister Carmel Tebbutt and the Greens' Deputy Mayor Sam Byrne. Labor retained the seat with 55% of the two-party-preferred vote.
• Macquarie Fields, 2005 - Held following the retirement of Labor's Craig Knowles. Won by local councillor Steven Chaytor (Labor), against former whistleblower nurse Nola Fraser (Liberal).
• Pittwater, 2005 - Held following the resignation of Liberal leader John Brogden. Won by independent Mayor Alex McTaggart, against Liberal candidate Paul Nicolaou.

The National Party of Australia is an Australian political party. ... The Hon. ... A by-election was held in the State Electoral District of Marrickville in New South Wales, Australia on 17 September 2005. ... Andrew Refshauge was born on the 16th of April, 1949, in Sydney. ... Personal Profile Born 22 January 1964. ... Craig Knowles is an Australian politician. ... Steven Chaytor is an Australian politician. ... John Gilbert Brogden (born 28 March 1969) is a former Australian politician. ...

Opinion Polls

News Limited's opinion poll Newspoll has indicated that the Labor government has lost a substantial amount of ground since the 2003 election, with the latest poll giving Labor 48% of the "two-party-preferred" vote, down from 56.2% in 2003. Labor has also lost 9% since the last election, with the Liberals gaining 12%. The coalition has a lead of 9% on the ALP, with the Greens on 7%. News Corporation (NYSE: NWS) is a media conglomerate that operates world-wide. ...

The Liberal Party of Australia is an Australian liberal conservative political party. ... The National Party of Australia is an Australian political party. ... The Australian Greens, commonly known as The Greens, is the national Greens party in Australia. ... The Liberal Party of Australia is an Australian liberal conservative political party. ... The National Party of Australia is an Australian political party, originally called the Country Party, adopting the name of National Country Party in 1975 and adopting its present name in 1982. ...

Legislative Council

The New South Wales Legislative Council is not elected in one general election. Rather, half the house is elected at each general election. Those Members of the Legislative Council elected at the 1999 election, and those who have been elected to fill vacancies from members elected in 1999, will vacate their seats at the 2007 election. The Legislative Council, or upper house, is one of the two chambers of the parliament of New South Wales in Australia. ...

At the 1999 election, 8 Labor MLCs were elected, along with 4 Liberals, 2 Nationals, and one each from the Greens, Christian Democratic Party (CDP), Australian Democrats, Unity, the Outdoor Recreation Party, One Nation and Reform the Legal System. The Liberal Party of Australia is an Australian liberal conservative political party. ... The National Party of Australia is an Australian political party. ... The Greens New South Wales is the state Greens party in New South Wales. ... The Christian Democratic Party (CDP) is a minor political party in Australia. ... The Australian Democrats (in regular parlance, just the Democrats), is an Australian social liberal party formed in 1977 from the earlier Australia Party by Don Chipp, who left the Liberal Party of Australia to do so. ... Unity Party (Australia) is a small multiculturist party in Australia, formed in 1997 with the aim of opposing the rise of controversial right-wing politician Pauline Hanson. ... The Outdoor Recreation Party is a minor a political party in Australia, that never won a seat in a federal election. ... One Nation is a conservative, nationalist and protectionist political group in Australia. ...

At the 2003 election, the following parties won seats:

• 10 Labor
• 5 Liberal
• 2 National
• 2 Greens
• 1 CDP (Fred Nile)
• 1 Shooters Party (John Tingle}

Frederick John Nile (born 15 September 1934), Australian politician and clergyman, is a member of the Legislative Council of New South Wales, Australia. ... The Shooters Party is an Australian political party. ...

Major Parties

A quota for the Legislative Council is roughly 4.5% of the vote. According to recent opinion polls, the absolute minimum number of MLCs elected by each major party (the Liberals and Nationals running a single ticket in Legislative Council elections) would be 7 each, adding up to 31.5% in quotas. While it is difficult to predict the number of seats won by each party, recent polls indicate the Liberal-National coalition would gain seats. The lowest result in 2005 opinion polls for the Coalition, conducted at the same time as the resignation of Liberal leader John Brogden and the election of his successor, gave the Coalition 38% of the vote, which would give them a likely 9 MLCs, three more than their current complement. John Gilbert Brogden (born 28 March 1969) is a former Australian politician. ...

With a very low number of major party MLCs elected in 1999, it does not necessarily follow that the Labor Party must lose seats if the Coalition gains seats. At its lowest point in polls, the Labor Party only stands to lose one seat, and could quite easily retain its 8 seats while suffering a swing against it, compared to the 2003 result.

Minor Parties

The 1999 election saw a number of small parties win a single seat in the Legislative Council, with seven parties winning one seat each. With the exception of the Greens and the Christian Democrats, none of those parties were able to repeat that success in 2003, following the introduction of a new electoral system which made it more difficult for small parties to win seats.

The Outdoor Recreation Party, Unity Party, and Reform the Legal System have not shown any chances of retaining their seats, not running in the 2003 election, whilst One Nation NSW (the breakaway party led by NSW MLC David Oldfield) and the Democrats have lost most of their party organisation and electoral support in recent years, and are unlikely to retain their seats. David Ernest Oldfield (born 1958), Australian politician, is a member of the New South Wales Legislative Council. ...

The Greens, who have generally polled 7-8% in opinion polls, will almost certainly retain their seat, currently held by Lee Rhiannon, and are likely to gain a second seat. As the only minor party to poll more than a single quota, there is potential for the Greens to win three seats, which could be achieved with as little as 11.5% of the vote. Lee Rhiannon (born 30 May 1951) is an Australian politician, she has been a member of the New South Wales Legislative Council since 1999 , for New South Wales. ...

The Christian Democratic Party's leader, Fred Nile, is up for re-election in 2007, and will likely win re-election. Rev. Nile resigned from the Legislative Council in 2004 to contest a seat in the Australian Senate, and was re-elected to his seat following his Senate defeat. Winning 3% in 2003, and 2.6% in the 2004 federal election, the CDP is likely to retain their seat in 2007. Frederick John Nile (born 15 September 1934), Australian politician and clergyman, is a member of the Legislative Council of New South Wales, Australia. ... Australian Senate chamber Entrance to the Senate The Australian Senate is the upper of the two houses of the Parliament of Australia. ...

Parties

Australian Labor Party

Liberal-National Coalition

National Party

Greens

Christian Democratic Party

Independents

Other Parties