The Olduvai theory states that industrial civilization (as defined by per capita energy consumption) will have a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years (1930-2030). The theory provides a quantitative basis of the transient-pulse theory of modern civilization. The name is a reference to the Olduvai Gorge in Africa. Industrialisation (or industrialization) or an industrial revolution (in general, with lowercase letters) is a process of social and economic change whereby a human society is transformed from a pre-industrial to an industrial state . ... Olduvai Gorge, February 2006 Olduvai Gorge from space Topography of Olduvai Gorge The Olduvai Gorge or Oldupai Gorge is commonly referred to as The Cradle of Mankind. ...

History

The Olduvai theory was first introduced by Richard C. Duncan, Ph.D. in 1989 as the "transient-pulse theory of Industrial Civilization".^[1] The theory was backed up with data in the 1993 paper "The life-expectancy of industrial civilization: The decline to global equilibrium".^[2] Richard Duncan devised the controversial Olduvai theory, which holds that the ratio of world energy production per capita, which he denotes by the metric e, would begin to decline around 2007 as the extraction rates of fossil fuels fall increasingly behind demand, causing catastrophic social and economic collapse, starting with... Year 1989 (MCMLXXXIX) was a common year starting on Sunday (link displays 1989 Gregorian calendar). ...

In June, 1996, Duncan introduced a paper titled "The Olduvai Theory:Sliding Towards a Post-Industrial Stone Age" where the term "Olduvai Theory" replaced "transient-pulse theory" used in previous papers.^[3] Duncan further updated his theory in "The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge", at the Summit 2000 Pardee Keynote Symposia of the Geological Society of America, on November 13, 2000.^[4] In 2005, Duncan extended his data set to include up to 2003 in "The Olduvai Theory Energy, Population, and Industrial Civilization".^[5] The Geological Society of America (or GSA) is a nonprofit organization dedicated to the advancement of the geosciences. ... is the 317th day of the year (318th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. ... Year 2000 (MM) was a leap year starting on Saturday (link will display full 2000 Gregorian calendar). ...

Details of theory

Industrial Civilization is defined in Duncan's paper as the time approximately from when energy production per capita rises above 37% of its peak to when it falls below 37% of its peak (1930-2030)[1].

The Olduvai theory claims that exponential growth of energy production ended in 1979, that energy use per capita will show no growth through 2008, and that after 2008 energy growth will become sharply negative, culminating in a world population of 2 billion circa 2050. [2]

The Olduvai Theory divides human history into three phases. The first "pre-industrial" phase stretches over most of human history when simple tools and weak machines limited economic growth. The second "industrial" phase encompasses modern industrial civilization where machines temporarily lift all limits to growth. The final "de-industrial" phase follows where industrial economies decline to a period of equilibrium with nonrenewable resources and the natural environment.[3] Deindustrialization is the process by which the manufacturing-based economy of a country or region declines. ...

The decline of the industrial phase is broken into three sections.

• The Olduvai slope (1979–1999) - Energy per capita 'declined at 0.33 %/year'
• The Olduvai slide (2000–2011) - 'begins in 2000 with the escalating warfare in the Middle East... marks the all-time peak of world oil production'.
• The Olduvai cliff (2012–2030) - 'begins in 2012 when an epidemic of permanent blackouts spreads worldwide, i.e. first there are waves of brownouts and temporary blackouts, then finally the electric power networks themselves expire'

Also: 1979 by Smashing Pumpkins. ... This article is about the year. ... Year 2000 (MM) was a leap year starting on Saturday (link will display full 2000 Gregorian calendar). ... 2011 (MMXI) will be a common year starting on Saturday of the Gregorian calendar. ... 2012 (MMXII) will be a leap year starting on Sunday of the Gregorian calendar. ... 2030 (MMXXX) will be a common year starting on Tuesday of the Gregorian calendar. ...

Timeline

Perry Arnett postulates the following timeline:[4]

• 1979: US per capita energy use peaked; still floundering on a plateau in 2006, but ready to fall precipitously (‘cliff’) at any time
• 2005: World crude oil probably peaked; still on an undulating plateau in 2007; starts off the ‘cliff’ ~2010-2012 or before
• 2005: World food production (grains) peaked
• 2008: World Natural Gas peaks (or sooner)
• 2010: NG ‘cliff’ arrives (or sooner)
• 2012: US electricity blackouts and brownouts become the norm (or sooner)
• 2012: US potable, available water peak and ‘cliff’; shortages and waterborne diseases increase
• 2015: US Health Care System in complete chaos, breakdown and failure; sanitation, drugs, return of communicable diseases, poorer nutrition, etc.
• 2015: World “Dieoff” begins in earnest; largely starvation, disease and poor healthcare caused
• 2030: US per-capita energy consumption hits the “30% mark-AFTER peak”, equaling year 1930 lifestyles again (probably much sooner than 2030)

Also: 1979 by Smashing Pumpkins. ... Year 2005 (MMV) was a common year starting on Saturday (link displays full calendar) of the Gregorian calendar. ... Year 2005 (MMV) was a common year starting on Saturday (link displays full calendar) of the Gregorian calendar. ... 2008 (MMVIII) will be a leap year starting on Tuesday of the Anno Domini (common) era, in accordance with the Gregorian calendar. ... 2010 (MMX) will be a common year starting on Friday of the Gregorian calendar. ... 2012 (MMXII) will be a leap year starting on Sunday of the Gregorian calendar. ... 2012 (MMXII) will be a leap year starting on Sunday of the Gregorian calendar. ... For the video game developer, see 2015, Inc. ... For the video game developer, see 2015, Inc. ... 2030 (MMXXX) will be a common year starting on Tuesday of the Gregorian calendar. ...

Criticism

Data

At the time of Duncan's paper, the peak in per capita energy consumption was 11.15 boe/c/yr (barrels of oil equivalent per capita per year) and occurred in 1979; however, since then energy use per capita has increased beyond that level, with the most recent year providing the current peak value of 12.12 boe/c/yr[5][6]. This increase directly contradicts Postulate 2 of the most recent version of the theory, namely that "[average per capita energy] will show no growth from 1979 to circa 2008".^[6] Barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) is a unit of measure used by oil and gas companies in their financial statements as a way of combining oil and natural gas reserves and production into a single measure. ... Per capita is a Latin phrase meaning for each head. ... Also: 1979 by Smashing Pumpkins. ...

Proponents note that the current trend of increasing per capita energy consumption may be difficult to sustain in the face of limits on finite resources such as oil, coal, and natural gas[7]. Critics argue that this demonstrated lack of predictive power renders the theory's other predictions unreliable.

Quote

In justification of his reference to Olduvai Gorge, Duncan writes:

...(1) it is justly famous, (2) I've been there, (3) its long hollow sound is eerie and ominous, and (4) it is a good metaphor for the 'Stone Age way of life'.

See also

• Doomsday argument
• Future energy development
• Global warming
• Great Depression
• Hubbert peak theory
• Societal collapse
• White's law

The Doomsday argument (DA) is a probabilistic argument that claims to predict the future lifetime of the human race given only an estimate of the total number of humans born so far. ... Future energy development, providing for the worlds future energy needs, currently faces great challenges. ... Global warming refers to the increase in the average temperature of the Earths near-surface air and oceans in recent decades and its projected continuation. ... For other uses, see The Great Depression (disambiguation). ... It has been suggested that this article be split into articles entitled Peak oil and Hubbert peak theory, accessible from a disambiguation page. ... For a related concept in sociology, see Social disintegration. ... Whites Law states that, other factors remaining constant, culture evolves as the amount of energy harnessed per capita per year is increased, or as the efficiency of the instrumental means of putting the energy to work is increased. ...

References

1. ^ Duncan, R. C. (1989). Evolution, technology, and the natural environment: A unified theory of human history. Proceedings of the Annual Meeting, American Society of Engineering Educators: Science, Technology, & Society, 14B1-11 to 14B1-20.
2. ^ Duncan, R. C. (1993). The life-expectancy of industrial civilization: The decline to global equilibrium. Population and Environment, 14(4), 325-357.
3. ^ "The Olduvai Theory:Sliding Towards a Post-Industrial Stone Age by Richard C. Duncan (1996)
4. ^ "The Peak Of World Oil Production And The Road To The Olduvai Gorge" by Richard C. Duncan (2000)
5. ^ "The Olduvai Theory Energy, Population, and Industrial Civilization" by Richard C. Duncan (2005)]
6. ^ http://www.thesocialcontract.com/pdf/sixteen-two/xvi-2-93.pdf

External links

• The Olduvai Theory of Industrial Civilization (less complete than the paper referenced above but updated more recently)
• "The Post-Petroleum Paradigm—and Population" by Walter Youngquist (1999)
• "Forecast of Oil and Gas Supply to 2050" by Jean Laherrere (2003) (PDF file)
• "2006 Long-Term Reliability Assessment" from the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC)