The Policy Analysis Market (PAM) was a proposed futures exchange developed by the United States' Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and based on an idea first proposed by Net Exchange[1], a San Diego research firm specializing in the development of online markets. A futures exchange, or futures and options exchange is a corporation or mutual organization which provides the facilities to trade futures contracts and options. ... The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is an agency of the United States Department of Defense responsible for the development of new technology for use by the military. ... Jump to: navigation, search City nickname: Americas Finest City Location Location of San Diego within San Diego County Government County San Diego Mayor vacant Physical characteristics Area      Land      Water 372. ... Online means being connected to the Internet or another similar electronic network, like a bulletin board system. ...

PAM was to be a "a market in the future of the Middle East", and would have allowed trading of futures contracts based on possible political developments in several Middle Eastern countries. The theory behind such a market is that the monetary value of a futures contract on an event reflects the probability that that event will actually occur, since a market's actors rationally bid a contract either up or down based on reliable information. One of the models for PAM was a political futures market run by the University of Iowa, which has allegedly proven more accurate in predicting the outcomes of U.S. elections than either opinion polls or political pundits. PAM was also inspired by the work of George Mason University economist Robin Hanson. Jump to: navigation, search In finance, a futures contract is a standardized contract, traded on a futures exchange, to buy or sell a certain underlying instrument at a certain date in the future, at a set price specified on the last trading date. ... A map showing countries commonly considered to be part of the Middle East The Middle East is a region comprising the lands around the southern and eastern parts of the Mediterranean Sea, a territory that extends from the eastern Mediterranean Sea to the Persian Gulf. ... Jump to: navigation, search Old Cap or Old Capitol Building, Iowas first state capitol building and a university landmark. ... Jump to: navigation, search An election is a decision making process whereby people vote for preferred political candidates or parties to act as representatives in government. ... Opinion polls are surveys of opinion using sampling. ... The term Pundit has multiple meanings: A pundit or pandit, in the culture of India, is a master of traditional religious poetry and/or traditional music. ... Jump to: navigation, search George Mason University George Mason Universitys Fairfax campus George Mason University, also referred to by locals and students as simply Mason or GMU, is an institution of higher learning in the Commonwealth of Virginia, with campuses in Arlington, Fairfax, and Prince William County, Virginia, all... U.S. Economic Calendar Economics at the Open Directory Project Economics textbooks on Wikibooks The Economists Economics A-Z Institutions and organizations Bureau of Labor Statistics - from the American Labor Department Center for Economic and Policy Research (USA) National Bureau of Economic Research (USA) - Economics material from the organization... Robin Hanson is an assistant professor of economics at George Mason University. ...

At a July 28, 2003 press conference, Senators Byron L. Dorgan (Democrat- North Dakota) and Ron Wyden (Democrat- Oregon) revealed that PAM would allow trading in such events as coups d'état, assassinations, and terrorist attacks. This information caused a political uproar, with opponents of the program denouncing it as "grotesque", "bizarre", and "morally repugnant". Almost immediately afterwards the Pentagon announced the cancellation of PAM, and by the end of the week John Poindexter, head of the DARPA unit responsible for developing it, had offered his resignation. Jump to: navigation, search July 28 is the 209th day (210th in leap years) of the year in the Gregorian Calendar, with 156 days remaining. ... Jump to: navigation, search 2003 (MMIII) is a common year starting on Wednesday of the Gregorian calendar. ... A joint press conference by U.S. President George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair at the White House. ... Jump to: navigation, search Seal of the Senate The United States Senate is one of the two chambers of the Congress of the United States, the other being the House of Representatives. ... The Democratic Party is one of the two major political parties in the United States. ... Jump to: navigation, search State nickname: Peace Garden State, Roughrider State, Flickertail State Other U.S. States Capital Bismarck Largest city Fargo Governor John Hoeven (R) Senators Kent Conrad (D) Byron Dorgan (D) Official languages English Area 183 272 km² (19th)  - Land 178 839 km²  - Water 4 432 km² (2. ... Ronald Lee Wyden (born May 3, 1949) is Oregons senior United States Senator. ... Jump to: navigation, search State nickname: Beaver State Other U.S. States Capital Salem Largest city Portland Governor Ted Kulongoski (D) Senators Ron Wyden (D) Gordon Smith (R) Official languages None Area 255,026 km² (9th)  - Land 248,849 km²  - Water 6,177 km² (2. ... Jump to: navigation, search A coup détat (pronounced /ku de ta/), or simply a coup, is the sudden overthrow of a government, usually done by a small group or pillow that just replaces the top power figures. ... Jack Ruby murdered the assassin, Lee Harvey Oswald, in a very public manner. ... Jump to: navigation, search The term terrorism is largely synonymous with political violence, and refers to a strategy of using coordinated attacks that typically fall outside the time, manner of conduct, and place commonly understood as representing the bounds of conventional warfare. ... Jump to: navigation, search A pre-9/11 view of The Pentagon, looking east with the Potomac River and Washington Monument in the distance. ... Jump to: navigation, search Admiral John Poindexter PhD Admiral John Marlan Poindexter (born August 12, 1936 in Odon, Indiana) is best known as a prominent United States Department of Defense official. ...

See also

• American Action Market
• Prediction market

The American Action Market is a prediction market project originated by Tad Hirsch of the MIT Media Lab, as a replacement for the cancelled Policy Analysis Market originally proposed as part of the US Total Information Awareness program. ... Also known as information markets, decision markets, idea futures, and virtual markets, prediction markets are speculative (i. ...

External links

• Policy Analysis Market website (was policyanalysis.org, no longer present)
  • background graphic
  • example contract
• Policy Analysis Market Archive
• New York Times: Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks
• Washington Post: Poindexter to Leave Pentagon Research Job
• Robin Hanson: Idea Futures
• Images from the now defunct PAM website
• Wired: Robin Hanson Policy Analysis Market
• Slate: James Surowiecki
• DARPA - FutureMAP Program - Policy Analysis Market Cancelled