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Encyclopedia > Problem of induction

The problem of induction is the philosophical issue involved in deciding the place of induction in determining empirical truth. The problem of induction is whether inductive reason works. That is, what is the justification for either: Philosophy is a discipline or field of study involving the investigation, analysis, and development of ideas at a general, abstract, or fundamental level. ... Induction or inductive reasoning, sometimes called inductive logic, is the process of reasoning in which the premises of an argument support the conclusion, but do not ensure it. ... Empirical is an adjective often used in conjunction with science, both the natural and social sciences, which means an observation or experiment based upon experience that is capable of being verified or disproved. ...

  1. generalizing about the properties of a class of objects based on some number of observations of particular instances of that class of objects (for example, "All ravens we have seen are black, and therefore all ravens are black"); or
  2. presupposing that a sequence of events in the future will occur as they always have in the past (for example, the attractive force described by Isaac Newton's law of universal gravitation, or Albert Einstein's revision in general relativity) is universal.

However, any series of observations, however large, may be taken to logically imply any particular conclusion about some future event only if 'induction' itself works. And that may be concluded only inductively. So, for instance, from any series of observations that water freezes at 0°C it is valid to infer that the next sample of water will do the same only if induction works. That such a prediction comes true when tried merely adds to the series; it does not establish the reliability of induction, except inductively. The problem is, then, what justification can there be for making such an inference? Empirical research is any activity that uses direct or indirect observation as its test of reality. ... Sir Isaac Newton in Godfrey Knellers 1689 portrait Sir Isaac Newton, PRS (25 December 1642 – 20 March 1727 by the Julian calendar in use in England at the time; or 4 January 1643 – 31 March 1727 by the Gregorian calendar) was an English physicist, mathematician, astronomer, philosopher, and alchemist... It has been suggested that this article or section be merged into Gravity. ... Albert Einstein, by Yousuf Karsh Albert Einstein (March 14, 1879 – April 18, 1955) was a German-born Jewish theoretical physicist of Swiss and American citizenship, who is widely regarded as the greatest scientist of the 20th century. ... Two-dimensional visualization of space-time distortion. ...


David Hume addressed this problem in the 18th century in a particularly influential way, and no analysis since has managed to evade Hume's critique. Hume looked at ways to justify inductive thinking. He pointed out that justifying induction on the grounds that it has worked in the past begs the question. That is, it is using inductive reasoning to justify induction. Circular arguments are valid, but do not provide a satisfactory justification for the supposition they claim to support. One has no rational basis for belief in the Principle of the Uniformity of Nature. Prior to Hume, Francis Bacon had made a strong claim that science ought to be based on induction. David Hume David Hume (April 26, 1711 – August 25, 1776) (N.B. The birthdate is May 7 by the Gregorian reckoning of his time; this date being used by the International Humanist and Ethical Union when celebrating his birthday) was a Scottish philosopher and historian and, with Adam Smith and... (17th century - 18th century - 19th century - more centuries) As a means of recording the passage of time, the 18th century refers to the century that lasted from 1701 through 1800. ... In logic, begging the question is the term for a type of fallacy occurring in deductive reasoning in which the proposition to be proved is assumed implicitly or explicitly in one of the premises. ... Sir Francis Bacon Francis Bacon, 1st Viscount St Albans, KC (22 January 1561 – 9 April 1626) was an English philosopher, statesman, spy, freemason and essayist. ...


Karl Popper sought to 'bypass' the problem in the philosophy of science by arguing that science does not actually rely on induction, developing the notion of falsification instead. Popper replaced induction with deduction, in effect making modus tollens the centerpiece of his theory. On this account, when assessing a theory one should pay greater heed to data which is in disagreement with the theory than to data which is in agreement with it. Popper went further and stated that a hypothesis which does not allow of such experimental test is outside the bounds of science. Karl Popper Sir Karl Raimund Popper (July 28, 1902 – September 17, 1994), was an Austrian-born philosopher of science. ... The philosophy of science is the branch of philosophy which studies the philosophical foundations, assumptions, and implications of science, including the natural sciences such as physics and biology, and the social sciences, such as psychology and economics. ... Falsifiability is an important concept in the philosophy of science that amounts to the apparently paradoxical idea that a proposition or theory cannot be scientific if it does not admit the possibility of it being false. ... Modus tollens (Latin: mode that denies) is the formal name for indirect proof or proof by contrapositive, often abbreviated to MT It is a common, simple argument form: If P, then Q. Q is false. ...


Isaac Newton considered induction the basis of scientific method at least in his "Opticks". Sir Isaac Newton in Godfrey Knellers 1689 portrait Sir Isaac Newton, PRS (25 December 1642 – 20 March 1727 by the Julian calendar in use in England at the time; or 4 January 1643 – 31 March 1727 by the Gregorian calendar) was an English physicist, mathematician, astronomer, philosopher, and alchemist...


Nelson Goodman presented a different description of the problem of induction in the article "The New Problem of Induction" (1966). Goodman proposed a new colour, "grue". Something is grue if it is green up until some given time, and blue thereafter. The "new" problem of induction is, how can one know that grass is indeed green, and not grue? The standard scientific response is to involve Occam's Razor. This article needs to be wikified. ... 1966 was a common year starting on Saturday (link goes to calendar) // Events January January 1 - In a coup, Colonel Jean-Bédel Bokassa ousts president David Dacko and takes over the Central African Republic. ... Grue is an artificial adjective, coined from green and blue by philosopher Nelson Goodman in one of the seminal works in the philosophy of science, Fact, Fiction, and Forecast. ... Occams Razor (also spelled Ockhams Razor), is a principle attributed to the 14th-century English logician and Franciscan friar, William of Ockham. ...


  Results from FactBites:
 
Problem of induction - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (526 words)
The problem of induction is the philosophical issue involved in deciding the place of induction in determining empirical truth.
Karl Popper sought to 'bypass' the problem in the philosophy of science by arguing that science does not actually rely on induction, developing the notion of falsification instead.
Nelson Goodman presented a different description of the problem of induction in the article "The New Problem of Induction" (1966).
Problem of Induction (1373 words)
The problem of induction is concerned with logical justification.
Induction is like writing "Gold" on a box into which I then place a nugget of gold, and then another, and then another, and so on, until the observer of my actions is challenged to predict the material of the next nugget to go into the box.
Induction is logically inconsistent in that the number of possible cases which might be observed is infinite and no number of observed cases which give the same result can therefore increase the probability of that result occurring in the next observed case, because no number can make a dent on infinity.
  More results at FactBites »


 

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