The Geographical Pivot of History was an article submitted by Halford John Mackinder in 1904 to the Royal Geographical Society that advanced his Heartland Theory. In this article, Mackinder extended the scope of geopolitical analysis to encompass the entire globe. Image File history File links No higher resolution available. ... Halford John Mackinder Sir Halford John Mackinder PC (February 15, 1861 - March 6, 1947), was an English geographer and geopolitician. ... 1904 (MCMIV) was a leap year starting on a Friday (see link for calendar). ... The Royal Geographical Society is a British learned society founded in 1830 with the name Geographical Society of London for the advancement of geographical science, under the patronage of King William IV. It absorbed the Association for Promoting the Discovery of the Interior Parts of Africa (founded by Sir Joseph... For other meanings of this term, see Heartland. ... Geopolitics analyses politics, history and social science with reference to geography. ...

Importance of non-geographic factors

It is easy to regard Mackinder's theory as a kind of geographic determinism. But Mackinder emphasized that his theory was not so limited:

"The actual balance of political power at any given time is… the product, on the one hand, of geographical conditions, both economic and strategic, and, on the other hand, of the relative number, virility, equipment and organization of the competing peoples."

(quoted in Sempa 2000)

The World-Island and the Heartland

According to Mackinder, the earth's land surface was divisible into:

• The World-Island, comprising the interlinked continents of Europe, Asia, and Africa. This was the largest, most populous, and richest of all possible land combinations.
• The peripheral island groups of the Americas, Australia, Japan, and the British Isles.

The Heartland lay at the centre of the world island, stretching from the Volga to the Yangtze and from the Himalayas to the Arctic. Mackinder's Heartland was the area ruled by the Russian Empire and then by the Soviet Union, minus the area around Vladivostok. For other uses, see Europe (disambiguation). ... For other uses, see Asia (disambiguation). ... A world map showing the continent of Africa Africa is the worlds second-largest and second most-populous continent, after Asia. ... World map showing the Americas CIA political map of the Americas The Americas are the lands of the Western hemisphere or New World, consisting of the continents of North America[1] and South America with their associated islands and regions. ... This article describes the archipelago in north-Western Europe. ... For other meanings of the word Volga see Volga (disambiguation) Волга Length 3,690 km Elevation of the source 225 m Average discharge  ? m³/s Area watershed 1. ... Length 6,380 km Elevation of the source  ? m Average discharge 31,900 m³/s Area watershed 1,800,000 km² Origin Qinghai Province and Tibet Mouth East China Sea Basin countries China The Chang Jiang (Simplified Chinese: 长江; Traditional Chinese: 長江; pinyin: Cháng Jiāng... For the movie Himalaya, see Himalaya (film). ... The red line indicates the 10°C isotherm in July, commonly used to define the Arctic region border Satellite image of the Arctic surface The Arctic is the region around the Earths North Pole, opposite the Antarctic region around the South Pole. ... The subject of this article was previously also known as Russia. ... Vladivostok (Russian: ) is the administrative center of Primorsky Krai, Russia, situated close to the Russo-Sino border and North Korea. ...

Strategic importance of Eastern Europe

Mackinder summarised his theory as:

"Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland;

who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island;

who rules the World-Island controls the world."

Any power which controlled the World-Island would control well over 50% of the world's resources. The Heartland's size and central position made it the key to controlling the World-Island.

The vital question was how to secure control of the Heartland. This question may seem pointless, since in 1904 the Russian Empire had ruled most of the area from the Volga to Eastern Siberia for centuries. But throughout the 19^th century: The subject of this article was previously also known as Russia. ...

• The West European powers had combined, usually successfully, in the Great Game to prevent Russian expansion.
• The Russian Empire was huge but socially, politically and technologically backward - i.e inferior in "virility, equipment and organization".

Mackinder held that effective political domination of the Heartland by a single power had been unattainable in the past because: The Great Game is a term, usually attributed to Arthur Connolly, used to describe the rivalry and strategic conflict between the British Empire and the Tsarist Russian Empire for supremacy in Central Asia. ...

• The Heartland was protected from sea power by ice to the north and mountains and deserts to the south.
• Previous land invasions from east to west and vice versa were unsuccessful because lack of efficient transportation made it impossible to assure a continual stream of men and supplies.

He outlined the following ways in which the Heartland might become a springboard for global domination in the 20^th century (Sempa, 2000):

• Successful invasion of Russia by a West European nation (most probably Germany). Mackinder believed that the introduction of the railroad had removed the Heartland's invulnerability to land invasion. As Eurasia began to be covered by an extensive network of railroads, there was an excellent chance that a powerful continental nation could extend its political control over the Eastern European gateway to the Eurasian landmass. In Mackinder's words, "Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland."
• A Russo-German alliance. Before 1917 both countries were ruled by autocrats (the Tsar and the Kaiser), and both could have been attracted to an alliance against the democratic powers of Western Europe (the USA was isolationist until it became a belligerent of World War I in 1917). Germany would have contributed to such an alliance its formidable army and its large and growing sea power.
• Conquest of Russia by a Sino-Japanese empire (see below).

The combined empire's large East Asian coastline would also provide the potential for it to become a major sea power. Mackinder's ""Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland ..." does not cover this scenario, probably because the previous 2 scenarios were seen as the major risks of the 19^th century and the early 1900s. This is the top-level page of WikiProject trains Rail tracks Rail transport refers to the land transport of passengers and goods along railways or railroads. ... For other uses, see Eurasia (disambiguation). ... Pre-1989 division between the West (grey) and Eastern Bloc (orange) superimposed on current national boundaries: Russia (dark orange), other countries of the former USSR (medium orange),members of the Warsaw pact (light orange), and other former Communist regimes not aligned with Moscow (lightest orange). ... An autocrat is generally speaking any ruler with absolute power; the term is now usually used in a negative sense (cf. ... Tsar (Bulgarian, Serbian and Macedonian цар, Russian  , in scientific transliteration respectively car and car ), occasionally spelled Czar or Tzar and sometimes Csar or Zar in English, is a Slavonic term designating certain monarchs. ... This article does not cite any references or sources. ... Isolationism is a diplomatic policy whereby a nation seeks to avoid alliances with other nations. ... “The Great War ” redirects here. ...

One of Mackinder's personal objectives was to warn Britain that its traditional reliance on sea power would become a weakness as improved land transport opened up the Heartland for invasion and / or industrialisation (Sempa, 2000).

Influence of the theory on foreign and military policy

In Germany up to 1945

Some influential Germans, such as Karl Haushofer both before and during the Third Reich, found this theory compatible with their desire to control Mitteleuropa and to take Ukraine. The intention to take the latter was indicated by the slogan Drang nach Osten, or "drive to the east". General Karl Haushofer General Karl Ernst Haushofer (August 27, 1869, Munich - March 13, 1946, Pähl) was a German geopolitician. ... Nazi Germany, or the Third Reich, commonly refers to Germany in the years 1933–1945, when it was under the firm control of the totalitarian and fascist ideology of the Nazi Party, with the Führer Adolf Hitler as dictator. ... The approximate area of Mitteleuropa Mitteleuropa (Central/Middle Europe) is a German term approximately equal to Central Europe. ... This does not cite its references or sources. ...

In the Western powers

Mackinder identified the geopolitical nightmare that was to haunt the world's two sea powers during the first half of the 20^thcentury — Great Britain and later on the United States. The nightmare was that if Germany or Russia were allowed to control East Europe then this could lead to the domination of the Eurasian land mass by one of these two powers as a prelude to mastery of the world.

Historical tests of the theory

Russo-Japanese War

The Russo-Japanese War of 1905 did not test Mackinder's theory, because: Combatants Russian Empire Montenegro[1] Empire of Japan Commanders Emperor Nicholas II Aleksey Kuropatkin Stepan Makarov â€  Emperor Meiji Oyama Iwao Heihachiro Togo The Russo–Japanese War (Japanese: Nichi-Ro Sensō, Russian: , Chinese: , February 10, 1904 – September 5, 1905) was a conflict that grew out of the rival imperialist ambitions of...

• Japan's most decisive successes were at sea, and the Heartland theory regards land power as more important than sea power.
• Japan's limited land successes incurred very high casualties and were in Korea and in parts of Russia which were outside Mackinder's definition of the Heartland (see map at top of page).

World War I

Though the theory was first conceived before World War I, developments in that war did not disprove it and perhaps gave it some support: “The Great War ” redirects here. ...

• The war was fought almost entirely on land, although Mackinder had not envisaged the vast systems of trenches in Europe.
• For the first time in 2 centuries sea-power was almost irrelevant - submarines could destroy convoys and were a serious threat to warships, and the war's greatest sea-borne invasion, at Gallipoli, was a disaster.
• The development of mechanized military transport and tanks, both needing petroleum, was unforeseen by Mackinder but fitted easily into the theory, as Russia's major oil reserves were located on the western shore of the Caspian Sea.

Trench warfare is a form of war in which both opposing armies have static lines of defense. ... For other uses, see Gallipoli (disambiguation). ...

Russian Revolution

The Russian Revolution of 1917 made the Heartland itself a threat to the global balance of power for the first time since the mid-19^th century, since the Heartland's new government took industrialisation (including modern transport) very seriously, had an ideology which aspired to world domination, and apparently commanded far greater popular support and enthusiasm than the Tsars had ever done. The Russian Revolution of 1917 was a series of political and social upheavals in Russia, involving first the overthrow of the tsarist autocracy, and then the overthrow of the liberal and moderate-socialist Provisional Government, resulting in the establishment of Soviet power under the control of the Bolshevik party. ...

See "The Cold War" below for analysis of the outcome.

German invasions of East Europe and Russia

Germany annexed Austria in 1938, extorted control of large parts of Czechoslovakia in 1938, triggered World War II by invading Poland in 1939 and invaded the Soviet Union as far as Moscow in 1941. German troops march into Austria on 12 March 1938. ... Combatants Allied powers: China France Great Britain Soviet Union United States and others Axis powers: Germany Italy Japan and others Commanders Chiang Kai-shek Charles de Gaulle Winston Churchill Joseph Stalin Franklin Roosevelt Adolf Hitler Benito Mussolini Hideki Tōjō Casualties Military dead: 17,000,000 Civilian dead: 33,000...

But:

• Germany's control of Eastern Europe was too short-lived to be a real test of the Heartland theory.
• The Soviet Union's transport infrastructure was still poor in 1941, so one of Mackinder's preconditions was not fulfilled.
• Germany had also invaded a large part Western Europe, and the need to garrison its conquests limited the resources it could devote to war with the Soviet Union.
• The Soviet Union limited the impact of its own territorial losses and Germany's territorial gains by relocating many of its factories east of the Urals. Mackinder had not considered this possibility and it could be regarded as a weakness in his theory.

The Ural Mountains, (Russian: Ура́льские го́ры = Ура́л) also known simply as the Urals, are a mountain range that run roughly north and south through western Russia. ...

Japanese control of East Asia

Japan occupied Manchuria in 1931, invaded China in 1937 and much of Southeast Asia during World War II. This article does not cite any references or sources. ... Location of Southeast Asia Southeast Asia is a subregion of Asia. ... Combatants Allied powers: China France Great Britain Soviet Union United States and others Axis powers: Germany Italy Japan and others Commanders Chiang Kai-shek Charles de Gaulle Winston Churchill Joseph Stalin Franklin Roosevelt Adolf Hitler Benito Mussolini Hideki Tōjō Casualties Military dead: 17,000,000 Civilian dead: 33,000...

But this did not constitute a real test of Mackinder's "Sino-Japanese empire" scenario:

• Japan's control of these territories was too short-lived to increase Japan's economic and military resources.
• China in particular was resentful and rebellious rather than the willing partner that Mackinder had feared.

Sea power in World War II

Mackinder's theory implies that modern land transport makes sea power less important than land power. But sea power played a much larger part in World War II than in World War I: Combatants Allied powers: China France Great Britain Soviet Union United States and others Axis powers: Germany Italy Japan and others Commanders Chiang Kai-shek Charles de Gaulle Winston Churchill Joseph Stalin Franklin Roosevelt Adolf Hitler Benito Mussolini Hideki Tōjō Casualties Military dead: 17,000,000 Civilian dead: 33,000... “The Great War ” redirects here. ...

• The Battle of the Atlantic (1939-1945), in which Germany tried to prevent the USA from sending supplies to Britain (and Russia from 1941), and later to prevent a build-up of Allied forces in Britain as a prelude to the Allied invasion of Europe.
• The Battle of Normandy was the largest seaborne invasion in history.
• The Pacific War, which was decided by major US naval victories, particularly the Battle of the Coral Sea and the Battle of Midway - but perhaps one should regard these as air battles which were fought over the sea rather than over land.

But in terms of Mackinder's theory (especially as he developed it in the 1920s) World War II was 2 "Outer / Insular Crescent" powers (USA and Britain) plus the Heartland versus 2 "Inner / Marginal Crescent" powers (Germany and Japan) - see the image at the top of this page. And the bloodiest part of the whole war was Germany's attempt to invade Russia, which was completely consistent with Mackinder's theory. Combatants Royal Navy Royal Canadian Navy United States Navy (1941–5) Kriegsmarine Regia Marina (1940–3) Commanders Sir Percy Noble Sir Max K. Horton Percy W. Nelles Leonard W. Murray Ernest J. King Erich Raeder Karl Dönitz Casualties 30,248 merchant sailors 3,500 merchant vessels 175 warships 28... Combatants United States United Kingdom Canada Free France Poland Nazi Germany Commanders Dwight Eisenhower (Supreme Allied Commander) Bernard Montgomery (land) Bertram Ramsay (sea) Trafford Leigh-Mallory (air) Omar Bradley (U.S. 1st Army) Miles Dempsey (UK 2nd Army) Harry Crerar (Canadian 1st Army) Gerd von Rundstedt (OB WEST) Erwin Rommel... For other uses, see Pacific War (disambiguation). ... Combatants United States Navy Royal Australian Navy Imperial Japanese Navy Commanders Frank J. Fletcher John G. Crace Shigeyoshi Inoue Takeo Takagi Strength 2 large carriers, 3 cruisers 2 large carriers, 1 light carrier, 4 cruisers Casualties 1 fleet carrier, 1 destroyer, 1 oil tanker sunk 543 killed 1 light carrier... Combatants United States Empire of Japan Commanders Chester W. Nimitz Frank J. Fletcher Raymond A. Spruance Isoroku Yamamoto Chuichi Nagumo Tamon Yamaguchi â€  Strength 3 carriers, ~50 support ships, 233 carrier aircraft, 127 land-based aircraft 4 carriers, 7 battleships, ~150 support ships, 248 carrier aircraft, 16 floatplanes Casualties 1 carrier...

The Cold War

The Cold War period (late 1940s to late 1980s) was long enough to present a real test of Mackinder's theory, as the Soviet Union: For other uses, see Cold War (disambiguation). ...

• controlled Eastern Europe and the Caucasus throughout this period and was therefore in a position to threaten or extend its influence into Western Europe and the oil-rich Middle East.
• was apparently at a similar economic and technological level to the major Western powers (principally the U.S.).

As a result the Western powers' main objective during the Cold War was to limit the Soviet Union's expansion and influence by any means which would not lead to a nuclear war. Some Western pundits doubted whether the West could survive in the long term (centuries), and hardly anybody seriously considered attempting to reduce the Soviet Union's territory or influence. It has been suggested that this article or section be merged with Caucasus Mountains. ... A map showing countries commonly considered to be part of the Middle East The Middle East is a region comprising the lands around the southern and eastern parts of the Mediterranean Sea, a territory that extends from the eastern Mediterranean Sea to the Persian Gulf. ... Motto: (Out Of Many, One) (traditional) In God We Trust (1956 to date) Anthem: The Star-Spangled Banner Capital Washington D.C. Largest city New York City None at federal level (English de facto) Government Federal constitutional republic  - President George Walker Bush (R)  - Vice President Dick Cheney (R) Independence from... Nuclear War is a card game designed by Douglas Malewicki, and originally published in 1966. ...

But Mackinder had pointed out that "The actual balance of political power at any given time is… the product, on the one hand, of geographical conditions, both economic and strategic, and, on the other hand, of the relative number, virility, equipment and organization of the competing peoples."

And there was increasing evidence that the Soviet Union lacked "virility, equipment and organization":

• Despite alarm in 1957-1960 about the "missile gap", in 1961 the USA realised that its nuclear weapons exceeded the Soviet Union's in both number and quality.
• By the mid 1970s it became apparent that the Soviet Union's economy was in difficulties. The most visible symptom was that it was actually producing less food than in Tsarist times and had to import grain from the USA from the early 1960s onwards.
• The Soviet war in Afghanistan showed severe weaknesses in the Soviet army's training, morale and equipment which were symptoms of economic and social decay (Odom 1998).

This article or section does not cite any references or sources. ... Combatants USSR DRA Mujahideen of Afghanistan supported by: USA Saudi Arabia Pakistan Iran China and others. ...

Is Mackinder's theory obsolete?

Several developments since 1945 and especially since about 1970 could be regarded as making Mackinder's theory obsolete, or at least in need of upgrade to a more general theory. Mackinder's own formulations are evidently based on the situation of the early 1900s and his interpretation of history (mainly of the 19^th century).

Bombers and missiles

Mackinder conceived his theory when launching an attack on another country took weeks or months and required efficient transport by sea (requires a strong navy) or land (requires good land transport). Now bombers can strike in hours and missiles in minutes, without the need for naval support or land transport infrastructure.

Experience from World War II onwards suggests that successful strategic bombing requires control of the target country's airspace. Such air superiority requires a strong economy with "virility, equipment and organization" - and a sufficiently strong economy requires a rather large land area (e.g. that of the USA). Combatants Allied powers: China France Great Britain Soviet Union United States and others Axis powers: Germany Italy Japan and others Commanders Chiang Kai-shek Charles de Gaulle Winston Churchill Joseph Stalin Franklin Roosevelt Adolf Hitler Benito Mussolini Hideki Tōjō Casualties Military dead: 17,000,000 Civilian dead: 33,000... The city heart of Rotterdam after being terror bombed by Germany in 1940, the ruin of the (now restored) Laurens Kerk is the only building that reminds people of Rotterdams medieval architecture. ...

More recently strategic bombing has sometimes proved ineffective - notably in the Vietnam War. Combatants Republic of Vietnam United States Republic of Korea Thailand Australia New Zealand The Philippines National Front for the Liberation of South Vietnam Democratic Republic of Vietnam People’s Republic of China Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea Strength US 1,000,000 South Korea 300,000 Australia 48,000...

The other main application of bombers is surgical strikes such as those by Israel against Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor or by (mainly) the USA against Libya in 1986. But these raids were against opposition that was weaker than the attackers in every way, and therefore neither prove nor disprove any part of Mackinder's theory. A surgical strike is a military attack upon a target which results in, was intended to result in, or is claimed only to have resulted in damage to the intended legitimate military target, and does not result in any collateral damage to surronding structures, vehicles, buildings, etc. ... The reactor after the Israeli raid. ...

Missiles raise more complex issues, because most debate focusses on nuclear missiles. The theory of Mutual assured destruction led to a military stand-off between the USA and the Soviet Union in which the two sides competed via proxy wars and economic attrition. This was ultimately a contest between the size of the Heartland and the "virility, equipment and organization" of the US economy and neither proves nor disproves any part of Mackinder's theory. Mutual assured destruction (MAD) is a doctrine of military strategy in which a full-scale use of nuclear weapons by one of two opposing sides would effectively result in the destruction of both the attacker and the defender. ... A proxy war is a war where two powers use third parties as a supplement or a substitute for fighting each other directly. ...

The rise of China to great power status

When Mackinder was writing, China was so backward that quite modest Western forces could defeat it (e.g. the Opium Wars) and even occupy its capital (e.g. during the Boxer Rebellion). Combat at Guangzhou during the Second Opium War The Opium Wars (Simplified Chinese: ; Traditional Chinese: ; Pinyin: ), or the Anglo-Chinese Wars were two wars fought around the middle of the 19th century (1839-1842 and 1858-1860 respectively)[1] that were the climax of a long dispute between China and... Combatants Eight-Nation Alliance (ordered by contribution): Empire of Japan Russian Empire British Empire France United States German Empire Kingdom of Italy Austro-Hungarian Empire Righteous Harmony Society Qing Dynasty (China) Commanders Edward Seymour Alfred Graf von Waldersee Ci Xi Strength 20,000 initially 49,000 total 50,000-100...

Mackinder did not foresee the rapid economic and technological progress China has made since about 1960, but his "Sino-Japanese empire" scenario showed that he was aware of China's potential - although he assumed that Japan would power China's modernisation.

The Middle East

Mackinder regarded the Middle East as part of the World-Island, but there is no evidence that he anticipated how oil would make some Middle Eastern states geopolitically important in their own right. A map showing countries commonly considered to be part of the Middle East The Middle East is a region comprising the lands around the southern and eastern parts of the Mediterranean Sea, a territory that extends from the eastern Mediterranean Sea to the Persian Gulf. ...

Technology and the hyperpower USA

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the USA has often been described as the world's only hyperpower, mainly because its technological superiority in both economic and military fields outweighs the greater size of Russia and China. A hyperpower is a state that is militarily, economically, and technologically dominant on the world stage. ...

The pace of modern technological progress and its consequences are a major exception to Mackinder's theory, which was formulated at a time when visible change took at least one generation.

Asymmetric warfare

In Mackinder's time the best-known examples of asymmetric warfare were the Boer War and the rather unsuccessful British campaigns in Afghanistan, and neither example changed the global balance of power. Asymmetric warfare originally referred to war between two or more actors or groups whose relative power differs significantly. ... There were two Boer Wars: the First Boer War (1880–1881) the Second Boer War (1899–1902). ...

Asymmetric warfare is now widely regarded as the main threat to the USA's dominance as the sole hyperpower. The main elements of this threat are:

• The use of some modern technologies which appear to favour the "underdog". Some are used mainly for propaganda, e.g. cheap video cameras and the World Wide Web. Others can be used for the planning and control of unconventional attacks, e.g. disposable mobile phones and encrypted email.
• Willingness to use tactics which the opposition regard as illegal or even atrocious.
• Giving a high priority to manipulating public opinion in the opposing country, in the country where war is being fought and in neutral countries; and particularly to exploiting any asymmetries in public reaction, e.g. to apparent atrocities by the "stronger" and "weaker" sides (a significant feature of the Vietnam War).

Asymmetric warfare is probably the most important exception to Mackinder's theory, which is fundamentally an economic theory of global political power and has nothing to say about the crucial psychological aspects of asymmetric warfare. WWWs historical logo designed by Robert Cailliau The World Wide Web (commonly shortened to the Web) is a system of interlinked, hypertext documents accessed via the Internet. ... “Encrypt” redirects here. ... E-mail, or email, is short for electronic mail and is a method of composing, sending, and receiving messages over electronic communication systems. ... The two parts of the laws of war (or Law of Armed Conflict (LOAC)): Law concerning acceptable practices while engaged in war, like the Geneva Conventions, is called jus in bello; while law concerning allowable justifications for armed force is called jus ad bellum. ... This article or section does not adequately cite its references or sources. ... Combatants Republic of Vietnam United States Republic of Korea Thailand Australia New Zealand The Philippines National Front for the Liberation of South Vietnam Democratic Republic of Vietnam People’s Republic of China Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea Strength US 1,000,000 South Korea 300,000 Australia 48,000...

References

• "CIA's Analysis Of The Soviet Union, 1947-1991 links to a large number of CIA analyses of Soviet economic, technological and military capability (as well as e.g. foreign policy), all in PDF format.
• William R. Keylor, The Twentieth-Century World and Beyond: An International History Since 1900, 2006. ISBN 0-19-516843-7
• Odom, W.E. (1998) "The Collapse of the Soviet Military". Yale University Press. ISBN 0-300-08271-1
• Sempa, F.P. (2000) "Mackinder's World" describes the background to Mackinder's thinking, the development of his theory after World War I (with many quotes) and its influence on geo-strategic thinking.