Unintended consequences are situations where an action results in an outcome that is not (or not only) what is intended. The unintended results may be foreseen or unforeseen, but they should be the logical or likely results of the action. For example, it is often conjectured that if the Treaty of Versailles had not imposed such harsh conditions on Germany, World War II would not have occurred. As such, war was an unintended consequence of the Treaty of Versailles. For the Law of unintended consequences, see Unintended consequence Unintended Consequences by John Ross, 1996 Unintended Consequences is a novel by author John Ross, first published in 1996 by Accurate Press. ... The Treaty of Versailles (1919) was the peace treaty which officially ended World War I between the Allied and Associated Powers and Germany. ... Combatants Allied powers: China France Great Britain Soviet Union United States and others Axis powers: Germany Italy Japan and others Commanders Chiang Kai-shek Charles de Gaulle Winston Churchill Joseph Stalin Franklin Roosevelt Adolf Hitler Benito Mussolini Hideki Tōjō Casualties Military dead: 17,000,000 Civilian dead: 33,000... The Treaty of Versailles (1919) was the peace treaty which officially ended World War I between the Allied and Associated Powers and Germany. ...

Unintended consequences can be classed into roughly three types:

• a positive unexpected benefit, usually referred to as serendipity or a windfall
• a potential source of problems, according to Murphy's law used in Systems engineering
• a negative or a perverse effect, which is the opposite result of what is intended

Discussions of unintended consequences usually refer to the third situation of perverse results. This situation often arises because a policy has a Perverse incentive and causes actions contrary to what is desired. Look up Serendipity in Wiktionary, the free dictionary. ... It has been suggested that Finagles law and Sods law be merged into this article or section. ... Systems engineering is an interdisciplinary approach and means for enabling the realization and deployment of successful systems. ... A perverse incentive is a term for an incentive that has the opposite effect of that intended. ...

The Law of Unintended Consequences

The Law of Unintended Consequences is not a law in the strict sense of legislation, but it is often quoted to encapsulate the idea that almost all human actions have at least one unintended consequence. In other words, each cause has more than one effect, including unforeseen effects. The idea dates to the Scottish Enlightenment. Legislation (or statutory law) is law which has been promulgated (or enacted) by a legislature or other governing body. ... Effect can be used in several different ways: Cause and effect are the relata of causality In movies and other media, sound effects are artificially created or enhanced sounds. ... The Scottish Enlightenment was a period of intellectual ferment in Scotland, running from approximately 1740 to 1800. ...

In the twentieth century, sociologist Robert K. Merton once again popularized the concept, sometimes referred to as the Law of Unforeseen Consequences. Merton (1936) spoke of the "unanticipated consequences" of "purposive social action", emphasizing that his term "purposive action… [is exclusively] concerned with 'conduct' as distinct from 'behavior.' That is, with action that involves motives and consequently a choice between various alternatives" (p.895). Editing Robert K. Merton This article is about the sociologist. ...

Causes

Possible causes of unintended consequences include the world's inherent complexity (parts of a system responding to changes in the environment), perverse incentives, human stupidity, self-deception or other cognitive or emotional biases. Complexity in general usage is the opposite of simplicity. ... A perverse incentive is a term for an incentive that has the opposite effect of that intended. ... “Stupid” redirects here. ... Self-deception is a process of denying or rationalizing away the relevance, significance, or importance of opposing evidence and argument. ... This article or section does not cite its references or sources. ... An emotional bias is a distortion in cognition and decision making due to emotional factors. ...

Robert K. Merton listed five causes of unanticipated consequences^[1]: Editing Robert K. Merton This article is about the sociologist. ...

1. Ignorance (It is impossible to anticipate everything, thereby leading to incomplete analysis)
2. Error (Incorrect analysis of the problem, or following habits that worked in the past but may not apply to the current situation)
3. Immediate interest, which may override long-term interests
4. Basic values may require or prohibit certain actions, even if the long-term result might be unfavorable (these long-term consequences may eventually cause changes in basic values)
5. Self-defeating prophecy (Fear of some consequence drives people to find solutions before the problem occurs, thus the non-occurrence of the problem is unanticipated)

Merton is also said to have stated that "no blanket statement categorically affirming or denying the practical feasibility of all social planning is warranted."

Examples

Of course, unintended consequences are common in everyday life, but many impact the greater society.

Examples of Unexpected Benefits:

• The medieval policy of setting up large hunting reserves for the nobility has preserved green space, often as parks, throughout England and other places in Europe.

• The wartime practice of sinking ships in shallow waters has created some artificial coral reefs.

• Controversial research carried out by John J. Donohue and Steven Levitt and published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics suggests that legalized abortion in the United States has accounted for as much as 50% of the drop in national crime rates. As evidence, Donohue and Levitt cite the fact that states that legalized abortion before Roe v. Wade saw correspondingly earlier drops in crime, and that states where abortion is common saw greater drops in crime than states where abortion is rare. Most convincingly, they found that "in high abortion states, only arrests of those born after abortion legalization fall relative to low abortion states."

• Also controversially, it has been suggested that legalized abortion has led to fewer so-called 'crack babies'—children born with a drug dependency due to their mothers' drug use while pregnant. The availability of legal abortion makes it more likely that a drug-addicted mother will abort a fetus rendered unhealthy by her drug use, even if this is not a primary reason for her choice to abort. (Note: the theory that fetuses exposed to crack cocaine would become people prone to violence, crime or addiction has been proven false. Crack babies perform as well as their age cohorts and show no additional tendency to violence, crime or addiction. However, babies with Fetal alcohol syndrome often show mental delays and secondary disabilities such as a tendency to mental health problems, school problems, trouble with the law, and chemical abuse.^[2])

• In medicine, most drugs have unintended consequences associated with their use, which are known as 'side effects'. Many are harmful and are more precisely called 'adverse effects'. However, some are beneficial—for instance, aspirin, a pain reliever, can also thin the blood and help to prevent heart attacks. The existence of beneficial side effects also leads to off label use—prescription or use of a drug for a non-intended purpose.

Examples of Perverse Results: Nobility is a traditional hereditary status (see hereditary titles) that exists today in many countries (mainly present or former monarchies). ... This article needs additional references or sources to facilitate its verification. ... Motto (French) God and my right Anthem God Save the King (Queen) England() – on the European continent() – in the United Kingdom() Capital (and largest city) London (de facto) Official languages English (de facto) Government Constitutional monarchy  -  Queen Queen Elizabeth II  -  Prime Minister Tony Blair MP Unification  -  by Athelstan 967  Area... World map showing the location of Europe. ... Steven Levitt Steven Levitt (born May 29, 1967) is prominent American economist best known for his work on crime, in particular on the link between legalized abortion and crime rates. ... Holding Texas law making it a crime to assist a woman to get an abortion violated her due process rights. ... Crack baby is a pejorative term for a child born to a mother who uses crack cocaine or Stile. ... Crack baby is a pejorative term for a child born to a mother who uses cocaine. ... Fetal alcohol syndrome or FAS is a disorder of permanent birth defects that occurs in the offspring of women who drink alcohol during pregnancy. ... medicines, see medication and pharmacology. ... It has been suggested that Blockbuster drug be merged into this article or section. ... Side-effect can mean: Side-effect (computer science), a state change caused by a function call Adverse drug reaction, an unintended consequence specifically arising from drug therapy Therapeutic effect (medicine), a desirable consequence of any kind of medical treatment, even though resulting as an unintended, unexpected consequence of the treatment... Adverse effect, in medicine, is an abnormal, harmful, undesired and/or unintended side-effect, although not necessarily unexpected, which is obtained as the result of a therapy or other medical intervention, such as drug/chemotherapy, physical therapy, surgery, medical procedure, use of a medical device, etc. ... Aspirin, or acetylsalicylic acid (IPA: ), (acetosal) is a drug in the family of salicylates, often used as an analgesic (to relieve minor aches and pains), antipyretic (to reduce fever), and as an anti-inflammatory. ... For other uses of painkiller, see painkiller (disambiguation) An analgesic (colloquially known as painkiller) is any member of the diverse group of drugs used to relieve pain. ... Acute myocardial infarction (AMI or MI), commonly known as a heart attack, is a disease state that occurs when the blood supply to a part of the heart is interrupted. ... The term off-label refers to the use of a drug for a medical condition other than for which it was officially approved and marketed. ...

• The Streisand Effect occurs when an attempt to censor or remove a certain piece of information (such as photograph, file or website) instead causes the information in question to become widely known and distributed in a very short time. The fact that a piece of information is being restricted assigns to it a previously nonexistent value in the eyes of the public.

• John Wilkes Booth assassinated Abraham Lincoln to avenge the defeat of the Confederacy. It is generally agreed that had Lincoln served out his presidential term until its proper end in March 1869, Reconstruction would have taken a considerably gentler course.

• The introduction of rabbits into Australia for sport led to an explosive growth in the rabbit population; rabbits became a major feral pest in Australia.

• Majority of economists believe that minimum wage laws increase the unemployment rate among low wage workers.^{[citation needed]}

• The stiffening of penalties for driving while intoxicated in the United States in the 1980s led, at first, to an increase in hit and run accidents, most of which were believed to have been drunken drivers trying to escape the law (Later, penalties for leaving the scene of an accident when driving while intoxicated were, consequently. stiffened, as well).

• Driven by concern for the increasing number of cyclists' head injuries, the State of Victoria (Australia) legislated to make safety helmets mandatory for all bicycle riders in 1990. Whilst the expected significant reduction in the absolute number of head injuries was certainly observed, there was also a concomitant, entirely unexpected reduction in the number of juvenile cyclists. Research by Vulcan et al. found that the reduction in the number of juvenile cyclists was entirely due to the fact that wearing a bicycle helmet was not considered to be fashionable or "cool".^{[citation needed]}

• "Prohibition", in the 1920s U.S., originally enacted to suppress the alcohol trade, drove many small-time alcohol suppliers out of business and consolidated the hold of large-scale organized crime over the illegal alcohol industry. When Prohibition was repealed, the brewing industry was then concentrated in a few major brewers, which were able to ride it out. Sixty years later, the "War on Drugs," intended to suppress the illegal drug trade, likewise drove many small-time drug dealers out of business and consolidated the hold of organized drug cartels over the illegal drug industry. Additionally, it has led to the existence of street drugs of unknown strength and contamination; at least some drug-related (and particularly opiate-related) deaths are caused by accidental overdosing on drugs that a dealer neglected to dilute to the usual extent.

• In CIA jargon, "blowback" describes the unintended, even undesirable consequences of covert operations. Examples include:
  • Operation Ajax, which contributed to the 1979 Iranian Revolution & the Iran hostage crisis
  • Covert funding of the Contras in Nicaragua, which lead to the Iran-Contra Affair

• Attempts by governments to reduce rent by introducing rent control has led to the unintended consequence of housing shortages and reduction in housing quality, increased difficulty for less desirable renters to obtain or retain housing and even to the creation of slums—areas where rental property is allowed to run down until it becomes uninhabitable.

• Controversially, it has been argued that stronger gun control has caused places such as Washington DC and New Jersey to experience unexpected increases in crime. One possible reason is that the enactment of gun control laws leave citizens vulnerable to criminals who do not respect the prohibitions on gun ownership, thereby making crime a much safer occupation. Conversely, places such as Switzerland and Vermont are cited as examples of places where weapons are common (and, importantly, equally distributed), yet the crime rates are extraordinarily low.

• Another controversial position alleges that humanitarian aid to third-world nations increases rather than decreases the total number of people in poverty. The logic behind this is that food and supplies cause birth rates to increase until the pre-aid equilibrium is reached. The poverty rate will be the same as it was before humanitarian aid, but as a result of the greater population more people will be in poverty than had no aid been provided at all.^{[citation needed]}

• The replacement of authoritarian governments with democratic ones has sometimes led to an increase in political corruption.^{[citation needed]}

• The locking of aircraft cockpit doors to prevent disasters through acts of terrorism resulted in Helios Airways Flight 522 crashing due to the pilots' loss of oxygen and the stewards' inability to control the craft.

The Streisand effect is a category of Internet phenomena in which an attempt to censor or remove (in particular, by the means of cease-and-desist letters) a certain piece of information (for example, a photograph, file, or even a whole website) instead backfires, causing the information in question to... John Wilkes Booth (May 10, 1838 – April 26, 1865) was an American actor from Maryland, who fatally shot President of the United States Abraham Lincoln at Fords Theatre in Washington, D.C. on April 14, 1865. ... It has been suggested that Selective assassination be merged into this article or section. ... For other uses, see Abraham Lincoln (disambiguation). ... Motto Deo Vindice (Latin: Under God, Our Vindicator) Anthem God Save the South (unofficial) Dixie (traditional) The Bonnie Blue Flag (popular) Capital Montgomery, Alabama (until May 29, 1861) Richmond, Virginia (May 29, 1861–April 2, 1865) Danville, Virginia (from April 3, 1865) Language(s) English (de facto) Government Republic President... Reconstruction was the attempt from 1865 to 1877 in U.S. history to resolve the issues of the American Civil War, when both the Confederacy and slavery were destroyed. ... Genera Pentalagus Bunolagus Nesolagus Romerolagus Brachylagus Sylvilagus Oryctolagus Poelagus Rabbits are small mammals in the family Leporidae of the order Lagomorpha, found in several parts of the world. ... A feral horse (an American mustang) in Wyoming A feral animal or plant is one that has escaped from domestication and returned, partly or wholly, to its wild state. ... Larval form of some beetle is damaging specimen of Sceliphron destillatorius in entomogical collection. ... The minimum wage is the minimum rate a worker can legally be paid (usually per hour) as opposed to wages that are determined by the forces of supply and demand in a free market. ... Drunk driving (drink driving in the UK) or drinking and driving is the act of operating a motor vehicle after having consumed alcohol (i. ... Hit-and-run is the crime of colliding with a person, their personal property (including their motor vehicle), or a fixture, and failing to stop and identify oneself afterwards. ... Capital Melbourne Government Constitutional monarchy Governor David de Kretser Premier Steve Bracks (ALP) Federal representation  - House seats 37  - Senate seats 12 Gross State Product (2004-05)  - Product ($m)  $222,022 (2nd)  - Product per capita  $44,443/person (5th) Population (End of September 2006)  - Population  5,110,500 (2nd)  - Density  22. ... Bicycle helmet A bicycle helmet is designed to provide head protection for cyclists. ... The term Prohibition, also known as A Dry Law, refers to a law in a certain country by which the manufacture, transportation, import, export, and sale of alcoholic beverages is restricted or illegal. ... The 1920s is a decade that is sometimes referred to as the Jazz Age or the Roaring Twenties, usually applied to America. ... For other uses, see United States (disambiguation) and US (disambiguation). ... Organized crime or criminal organizations are groups or operations run by criminals, most commonly for the purpose of generating a monetary profit. ... Massive mark-ups for drugs, UK Govt report Prevalance of drug use 1991-2006 The War on Drugs is an initiative undertaken by the United States with the assistance of participating countries, which is intended to combat the illegal drug trade —to curb supply and diminish demand for certain psychoactive... The CIA Seal The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is an American intelligence agency, responsible for obtaining and analyzing information about foreign governments, corporations, and individuals, and reporting such information to the various branches of the U.S. Government. ... To meet Wikipedias quality standards, this article or section may require cleanup. ... Blowback is a term used in espionage to describe the unintended consequences of covert operations. ... Soldiers surround the Parliament building in Tehran on August 19, 1953. ... 1980 Iranian stamp commemorating the Islamic Revolution After Islamic Conquest  Modern (SSR = Soviet Socialist Republic) Afghanistan  Azerbaijan  Bahrain  Iran  Iraq  Tajikistan  Uzbekistan  This box:      The Iranian Revolution (also known as the Islamic Revolution,[1][2][3][4][5][6] Persian: انقلاب اسلامی, Enghelābe Eslāmi) was the revolution that transformed Iran... This article or section needs copy editing for grammar, style, cohesion, tone and/or spelling. ... The Contras (from the Spanish term La Contra, short for movement of the contrarrevolucionarios) were the armed opponents of Nicaraguas Sandinista Junta of National Reconstruction following the July 1979 overthrow of Anastasio Somoza Debayle (which ended the Somoza dynasty), and continuing throughout the following decade. ... The Iran-Contra Affair was a political scandal in the United States during the 1980s. ... Rent control refers to laws or ordinances that set price controls on residential housing. ... A boy from an East Cipinang trash dump slum in Jakarta, Indonesia shows his find. ... It has been suggested that this article or section be merged into Gun politics. ... Flag Seal Nickname: DC, The District Motto: Justitia Omnibus (Justice for All) Location Location of Washington, D.C., with regard to the surrounding states of Maryland and Virginia. ... It has been suggested that this article be split into multiple articles. ... Capital Montpelier Largest city Burlington Area  Ranked {{{AreaRank}}}  - Total {{{TotalAreaUS}}} sq mi ({{{TotalArea}}} km²)  - Width 80 miles (130 km)  - Length 160 miles (260 km)  - % water 3. ... Helios Airways Flight 522 (HCY 522 or ZU522) was a Helios Airways Boeing 737-31S flight that crashed on August 14, 2005 at 12:04 EEST into a mountain north of Marathon and Varnavas, Greece. ...

Failure mode and effects analysis

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is a fault tree method (first developed for systems engineering) that examines potential failures in products or processes. It may be used to evaluate risk management priorities for mitigating known threat-vulnerabilities. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a risk assessment technique for systematically identifying potential failures in a system or a process. ... Safety engineering is used to assure that a life-critical system behaves as needed even when pieces fail. ... Systems engineering is an interdisciplinary approach and means for enabling the realization and deployment of successful systems. ... Risk management is the human activity which integrates recognition of risk, risk assessment, developing strategies to manage it, and mitigation of risk using managerial resources. ...

FMEA helps select remedial actions that reduce cumulative impacts of life-cycle consequences (risks) from a systems failure (fault).^[3]

Purposeful gaming to achieve unintended consequences

Another more restrictive use of unintended consequence is that it occurs when a mechanism that has been installed in the world with the intention of producing one result is used to produce a different (and often conflicting) result. The notion of "gaming the system" illustrates the idea of an unintended consequence. One "games a system" (for example, the tax code) when one acts in such a way that one gains tax advantages by exploiting a tax rule that was intended for some other purpose. Similarly, computer viruses, worms, and other such plagues are unintended consequences of the way certain computer systems are designed. Spam is an unintended consequence of the way the email system works. The preceding computer examples illustrate this sense of unintended consequence in that a mechanism, e.g., email, intended for interpersonal communication, is hijacked for advertising.

This sense of unintended consequence excludes, for example, the proliferation of rabbits in Australia as an unintended consequence of their introduction. The proliferation of rabbits was indeed an unexpected (and unintended) consequence of their introduction, but it didn't result from the exploitation of a mechanism for some other purpose. It was just a consequence of a historical event. Many historical events have such unexpected (and unintended) consequences, but are not considered to exemplify this use of the term. The intent to "game the system" distinguishes this interpretation of unintended consequence from such a broader interpretation of unintended consequence as a result of simple historical contingency. See the Museum of Unintended Consequences for more examples.

Solution or mitigating actions

The concepts of interlock research and Information Routing Group were proposed to overcome the effects of this Law by ensuring that, as far as possible, unknown consequences of any proposed action or policy (at least to the initiators of the action or policy) was fed back to them by a spontaneously forming network of experts who could see what those consequences would be. Interlock Research is related to but broader than the notions of Corporate Interlocks and the Collaboratory. ... An Information Routing Group (or IRG) is one of a semi-infinite set of similar interlocking and overlapping groups each IRG containing a group of ( maybe 3 to 200) individuals (IRGists) and each IRG loosely sharing a particular common interest; IRGists exchange information, as a group, a sub group, or...

An associated concept was that of the Relevance Paradox, where an actor would seek out information that was obviously relevant, but that they did not see as relevant although it might well be. The Relevance Paradox occurs where individual, professionals or groups of professionals are unaware of certain essential information which would guide them to better decisions, and help avoid inevitable, unintended and undesirable consequences, but lacking the information, they dont see its relevance so dont seek it. ...

See also

• Counter-intuitive
• Futures techniques
• Hutber's law
• Kludge
• knock-on effect
• Moral hazard
• Murphy's law
• Nocebo
• Perverse effects of vaccination
• Perverse incentive
• Placebo
• Placebo (origins of technical term)
• Regression testing
• Side effect
• Streisand effect
• Unforeseen effects of species introduction
• Parable of the broken window

Something is counter-intuitive if it does not seem likely to be true using the tool of human intuition or gut-feeling to perceive reality. ... Futurists use a diverse range of forecasting methods for futures studies including: // The Delphi method is a very popular technique used in Futures Studies. ... Hutbers law states that improvement means deterioration. It is founded on the cynical observation that a stated improvement actually hides a deterioration. ... A kludge (or kluge) is a clumsy or inelegant solution to a problem. ... This section is studied by Argagui monopoli In law and economics, moral hazard is the name given to the risk that one party to a contract can change their behaviour to the detriment of the other party once the contract has been concluded. ... It has been suggested that Finagles law and Sods law be merged into this article or section. ... // In its original application, nocebo had a very specific meaning in the medical domains of pharmacology, and nosology, and aetiology. ... The perverse effects of vaccination require two conditions: Too few susceptibles are vaccinated against an infectious disease. ... A perverse incentive is a term for an incentive that has the opposite effect of that intended. ... “Placebo effect” redirects here. ... The technical term placebo is precisely applied in the specialized medical domains of pharmacology, nosology, and aetiology to denote the pharmacologically inert, dummy simulator of an active drug that serves as a scientific control in clinical trials designed to determine the clinical efficacy of that particular drug. ... Regression testing is any type of software testing which seeks to uncover regression bugs. ... Side-effect can mean: Side-effect (computer science), a state change caused by a function call Adverse drug reaction, an unintended consequence specifically arising from drug therapy Therapeutic effect (medicine), a desirable consequence of any kind of medical treatment, even though resulting as an unintended, unexpected consequence of the treatment... The Streisand effect is a category of Internet phenomena in which an attempt to censor or remove (in particular, by the means of cease-and-desist letters) a certain piece of information (for example, a photograph, file, or even a whole website) instead backfires, causing the information in question to... Purple flowers of the highly invasive Pattersons Curse infest the Warrumbungle National Park in New South Wales, Australia. ... The parable of the broken window was created by Frédéric Bastiat in his 1850 essay That Which is Seen and That Which is Not Seen to illuminate the notion of hidden costs ( opportunity costs). ...

References

1. ^ Merton, Robert K. On Social Structure and Science. The University of Chicago Press, 1996. http://www.press.uchicago.edu/cgi-bin/hfs.cgi/00/13087.ctl
2. ^ Streissguth, A. (1997). Fetal Alcohol Syndrome: A Guide for Families and Communities. Baltimore: Brookes Publishing. ISBN 1-55766-283-5.
3. ^ Urban-wetland example showing unintended consequences (secondary and subsequent) of land-use zoning and flooding: Hazard Tree Analysis

A subtropical wetland in Florida, USA, with an endangered American Crocodile. ... Land use is the activity for which land is used. ...

External links

• The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action by Robert K. Merton, American Sociological Review, Vol 1 Issue 6, Dec 1936, pp.894-904
• Atlantic magazine article: "Blowback"
• Observer article: Why 'blowback' is the hidden danger of war
• MSNBC article on Bin Laden and blowback
• Unintended Consequences
• Museum of Unintended Consequences
• Edward Tenner, Why Things Bite Back: Technology and the Revenge of Unintended Consequences, Vantage Books, 1997.
• Tomislav V. Kovandzic, John Sloan III, and Lynne M. Vieraitis. Unintended Consequences of Politically Popular Sentencing Policy: The Homicide-Promoting Effects of 'Three Strikes' in U.S. Cities (1980-1999). Criminology & Public Policy, Vol 1, Issue 3, July 2002.
• Vulcan, A.P., Cameron, M.H. & Heiman, L., "Evaluation of mandatory bicycle helmet use in Victoria, Australia", 36th Annual Conference Proceedings, Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine, Oct 5-7, 1992.
• Vulcan, A.P., Cameron, M.H. & Watson, W.L., "Mandatory Bicycle Helmet Use: Experience in Victoria, Australia", World Journal of Surgery, Vol.16, No.3, (May/June 1992), pp.389-397.