The Hubbert peak theory, also known as peak oil, is an influential theory concerning the long-term rate of conventional oil (and other fossil fuel) extraction and depletion. It predicts that future world oil production will reach a peak and then rapidly decline. The actual peak year will only be known after it has passed. Based on available production data, proponents have predicted the peak year to be 1989, 1995, 1995-2000, or, according to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, 2007 for oil and somewhat later for natural gas. This may lead to major economic consequences for the world since modern civilization is dependent on cheap and abundant fossil fuels, especially for transportation, food production, chemical industrial processes, water treatment, home heating and power generation. The Hubbert peak theory is named for geophysicist M. King Hubbert, who correctly predicted the peak of U.S. oil production fifteen years in advance. While controversial, the theory increasingly influences policy makers within government and the oil industry. The current debate is rarely about whether there will be a peak, but rather when it will occur and the severity of the post-peak effects. Even the most generous mainstream reports estimate petroleum reserves lasting no more than 100 years. Nodding donkey pumping an oil well near Sarnia, Ontario, 2001 Petroleum (from Latin petra – rock and oleum – oil), crude oil, sometimes colloquially called black gold, is a thick, dark brown or greenish flammable liquid, which exists in the upper strata of some areas of the Earths crust. ... Fossil fuels are hydrocarbon-containing natural resources such as coal, petroleum and natural gas. ... 1989 is a common year starting on Sunday of the Gregorian calendar. ... 1995 was a common year starting on Sunday of the Gregorian calendar. ... 1995 was a common year starting on Sunday of the Gregorian calendar. ... This article is about the year 2000. ... ASPO predicts that oil production will peak around 2007. ... 2007 is a common year starting on Monday of the Gregorian calendar. ... A civilization or civilisation has a variety of meanings related to human society. ... Geophysics, the study of the earth by quantitative physical methods, especially by seismic reflection and refraction, gravity, magnetic, electrical, electromagnetic, and radioactivity methods. ... Marion King Hubbert (October 5, 1903 – October 11, 1989) was a geophysicist who worked at the Shell research lab in Houston, Texas. ... Wikiquote has a collection of quotations by or about: United States Wikinews has news related to this article: United States United States government CIA World Factbook Entry for United States House. ...

The Hubbert curve, devised by M. King Hubbert, is a mathematical model of future oil availability.

plot of hubbert curve generated by gnuplot with set nokey, set grid, set size 0. ... The Hubbert curve, named after the geophysicist M. King Hubbert, is the derivative of the logistic curve. ... Marion King Hubbert (October 5, 1903 – October 11, 1989) was a geophysicist who worked at the Shell research lab in Houston, Texas. ... A mathematical model is the use of mathematical language to describe the behaviour of a system. ...

Hubbert's theory

Oil and other fossil fuels are a result of geological processes within the earth. Fossil fuels were created when decayed organic matter was compressed underground millions of years ago and underwent certain physical and chemical changes. Oil, like most other available energy flows and reserves on earth is ultimately derived from the sun, (with geothermal power, tidal power, and nuclear power being notable exceptions). Fossil fuels are, in essence, stored solar energy and are non-renewable resources—that is there is a finite amount of them, and their reserves are not being replenished (at least, not at a speed comparable to that of their extraction). This is true despite their apparent abundance and the discovery of previously unknown reserves. Fossil fuels are hydrocarbon-containing natural resources such as coal, petroleum and natural gas. ... Geology (from Greek γη- (ge-, the earth) and λογος (logos, word, reason)) is the science and study of the Earth, its composition, structure, physical properties, history, and the processes that shape it. ... Organic has several meanings and related topics. ... Antonym of psychical. ... A chemical substance is any material substance used in or obtained by a process in chemistry: A chemical compound is a substance consisting of two or more chemical elements that are chemically combined in fixed proportions. ... The Sun is the star at the centre of our Solar system. ... Thermally active area, New Zealand. ... Tidal power is a means of electricity generation achieved by capturing the energy contained in moving water mass due to tides. ... This article is about power derived from nuclear reactions. ... Solar power describes a number of methods of harnessing energy from the light of the sun. ...

Hubbert, a geophysicist, created a mathematical model of petroleum extraction which predicted that the total amount of oil extracted over time would follow a logistic curve. This implies that the predicted rate of oil extraction at any given time would be given by the rate of change of the logistic curve, which follows a bell-shaped pattern now known as the Hubbert curve (see figure above). In 1956, Hubbert predicted that oil production in the continental United States would peak in the early 1970s. U.S. oil production did indeed peak in 1970, and has been decreasing since then. According to Hubbert's model, U.S. oil reserves would be exhausted before the end of the 21st century. The Hubbert peak theory is most often applied to oil but is applicable to other fossil fuels such as natural gas, coal and non-conventional oil. A mathematical model is the use of mathematical language to describe the behaviour of a system. ... Nodding donkey pumping an oil well near Sarnia, Ontario, 2001 Petroleum (from Latin petra – rock and oleum – oil), crude oil, sometimes colloquially called black gold, is a thick, dark brown or greenish flammable liquid, which exists in the upper strata of some areas of the Earths crust. ... The logistic function or logistic curve is defined by the mathematical formula: for real parameters a, m, n, and . ... The logistic function or logistic curve models the S-curve of growth of some set P. The initial stage of growth is approximately exponential; then, as competition arises, the growth slows, and at maturity, growth stops. ... The Hubbert curve, named after the geophysicist M. King Hubbert, is the derivative of the logistic curve. ... 1956 was a leap year starting on Sunday of the Gregorian calendar. ... 1970 was a common year starting on Thursday. ... In calendars based on the Christian Era or Common Era, such as the Gregorian calendar, the 21st century is the current century, as of this writing. ... Natural gas (commonly refered to as gas in many countries) is a gaseous fossil fuel consisting primarily of methane. ... Coal is a fossil fuel extracted from the ground either by underground mining, open-pit mining or strip mining. ... Non-conventional oil is oil extracted using techniques other than the traditional oil well method. ...

Given past oil production data and barring extraneous factors such as lack of demand, the model predicts the date of maximum oil production output for an oil field, multiple oil fields, or an entire region. This maximum output point is referred to as the peak. The period after the peak is referred to as depletion. The graph of the rate of oil production for an individual oil field over time follows a bell-shaped curve: first, a slow steady increase of production; then, a sharp increase; then, a plateau (the "peak"); then, a slow decline; and, finally, a steep decline. Depletion is the process of running down or reducing the total resource available. ...

When an oil reserve is discovered, production is initially small, because all the required infrastructure has not been installed. As wells are drilled and more efficient facilities are installed, oil production increases. At some point, a peak output is reached that can not be exceeded, even with improved technology or additional drilling. After the peak, oil production slowly but increasingly tapers off. After the peak, but before an oil field is empty, another significant point is reached when it takes more energy to recover, transport and process a barrel of oil than the amount of energy contained in that barrel. At that point, it is no longer worthwhile to extract oil for energy, and the field may be abandoned. Hubbert peak theory proponents claim that this is true regardless of the price of oil. This concept is referred to as the ratio of energy extracted to energy invested.

One logical fallacy with Hubbert's Peak as a prediction of actual production is that the market value of transportion fuel is nearly an order of magnitude greater than the price of non-transportation forms of energy. As a consequence, simple market principles dictate that as oil becomes increasingly scarce, the market price will rise until it is economic to invest in net-energy-loss schemes which in effect convert large quantities of cheap energy into higher value transportation fuel.

The organization ASPO predicts that oil production will peak around 2007.

This image is copyrighted. ... The Hubbert curve, devised by M. King Hubbert, predicts future oil availability. ...

Peak prediction

The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas was founded by the geologist Colin Campbell. It argues that the Hubbert model is fundamentally correct, and that the world faces the midpoint, or maximum, rate of global oil production around 2007, after which time production decline begins. This could potentially lead to a major global crisis in the early twenty-first century. Proponents of peak oil theory point to the fact that the production rate of an increasing percentage of oil fields is already beginning to decline. Huge, easily exploitable oil fields are most likely a thing of the past. Natural gas is expected to peak anywhere from 2010 to 2020 (Bentley, 2002). ASPO predicts that oil production will peak around 2007. ... Colin J. Campbell, Ph. ... 2010 is a common year starting on Friday of the Gregorian calendar. ... 2020 is a leap year starting on Wednesday. ...

The increasing global demand for oil due to population growth and greater global economic prosperity increase the rate of oil depletion. In a recent year, 25 billion barrels of oil were consumed worldwide, while only eight billion barrels of new oil reserves were discovered. Population growth is changing of the amount of population over time. ...

In March 2005, the International Energy Agency projected annual global demand at 84.3 million barrels per day ([1]), which means over 30 billion barrels annually. This makes consumption equal to production, leaving no surplus capacity. Even if there were temporarily sufficient oil reserves that could be used to meet rising global demand, there is an unknown limit on the increase of oil production capacity, absent additional investment in oil production, transportation and refining facilities. Also in March 2005, the Algerian minister for energy and mines stated that OPEC had reached their oil production limit. [2] 2005 : January - February - March - April - May - June - July - August - September - October - November - December- → Ongoing events • Iraqi legislative election • Bill C-38 (Canada gay marriage) • Tsunami relief • Cedar Revolution in Lebanon • Tulip Revolution in Kyrgyzstan • German Visa Affair 2005 • Expo 2005 in Nagoya, Japan • Terri Schiavo controversy • Pope John Paul II... The International Energy Agency (IEA, or AIE in Romance languages with a curiously similar pronunciation) is a Paris-based governmental organization founded by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 1974 in the wake of the oil crisis. ... Surplus can refer to: budget surplus, the opposite of a budget deficit economic surplus anything thats no longer considered of use, such as army surplus This is a disambiguation page — a navigational aid which lists pages that might otherwise share the same title. ... Logo The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is made up of Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela; since 1965, its international headquarters have been in Vienna, Austria. ...

The phrase "the end of cheap oil", describes the predicted final result. This refers to both financial and energy efficiency aspects (i.e., the price will increase due to scarcity and the increasing inefficiency of oil production). When oil production first began in the early twentieth century, the largest oil fields recovered fifty barrels of oil for every barrel used in the extraction, transportation and refining. This ratio is often referred to as the Energy Return on Investment (EROI or EROEI). This ratio becomes increasingly inefficient over time: currently, between one and five barrels of oil are recovered for each barrel used in the recovery process. The reason for this efficiency decrease is that oil becomes harder to extract as an oil field is drained. When this ratio reaches the point where it takes one barrel to recover one barrel, then oil becomes useless as energy. At that point, all energy used to extract oil would result in a net energy loss; society would be more efficient and better off using that remaining energy elsewhere. Possible exceptions would be processes that convert abundant, but less useful sources, such as coal, into more useful energy sources, such as oil. As would be expected by any theory that predicts future fuel shortages, the Hubbert model has significant political, economic and foreign policy ramifications. EROEI (energy returned on energy invested) is the ratio between the amount of energy expended to obtain a resource, compared with the amount of energy obtained from that resource. ... A economic shortage is a term describing a disparity between the demand for a product or service and its supply in a market. ... Politics is the process and method of decision-making for groups of human beings. ... Economics (deriving from the Greek words οίκω [okos], house, and νέμω [nemo], rules hence household management) is the social science that studies the allocation of scarce resources to satisfy unlimited wants. ... A foreign policy is a set of political goals that seeks to outline how a particular country will interact with the other countries of the world. ...

(Source: Energy Information Administration: International Energy Outlook 2004, http://www. ... The Energy Information Administration (EIA), as part of the U.S. Department of Energy, collects and disseminates data on energy reserves, production, consumption, distribution, prices, technology, and related international, economic, and financial matters. ... The International Energy Agency (IEA, or AIE in Romance languages with a curiously similar pronunciation) is a Paris-based governmental organization founded by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 1974 in the wake of the oil crisis. ...

Critique

Few would deny that fossil fuels are finite and that alternative energy sources must be found in the future. Most critics instead argue that the peak will not occur soon and that the form of the peak may be irregular and extended rather than a sharp logistic curve peak. Energy development is the ongoing effort to provide abundant and accessible energy, through knowledge, skills and constructions. ...

In 1971, Hubbert used high and low estimates of global oil reserve data to predict that global oil production would peak between 1995 and 2000. This peak did not occur. However, it should be noted that other events that occurred after Hubbert's prediction may have delayed the peak, especially the 1973 energy crisis, in which a decreased supply of oil resulted in a shortage, and ultimately less consumption. The 1979 energy crisis and 1990 spike in the price of oil due to the Gulf War have had similar, albeit less dramatic effects on supply. On the demand side, recessions in the early 1980's and 90's have decreased the demand and consumption of oil. All of these effects would theoretically delay peak oil. 1971 is a common year starting on Friday (click for link to calendar). ... 1995 was a common year starting on Sunday of the Gregorian calendar. ... This article is about the year 2000. ... (Redirected from 1973 energy crisis) United States, drivers of vehicles with odd numbered license plates were allowed to purchase gasoline only on odd-numbered days of the month, while drivers with even-numbers were limited to even-numbered days. ... The supply and demand model describes how prices vary as a result of a balance between product availability at each price (supply) and the desires of those with purchasing power at each price (demand). ... A shortage is en economic term describing a disparity between the demand for a product or service (see labor shortage and its supply in a market. ... Oil prices from 1860-1999 in 1999 dollars. ... The 1990 (or third) energy crisis was the mildest and most brief of them all. ... C Company, 1st Battalion, The Staffordshire Regiment, 1st UK Armoured Division The 1991 Gulf War was a conflict between Iraq and a coalition force of 34 nations mandated by the United Nations and led by the United States. ... The supply and demand model describes how prices vary as a result of a balance between product availability at each price (supply) and the desires of those with purchasing power at each price (demand). ... A recession is usually defined in macroeconomics as a fall of a countrys real Gross National Product in two or more successive quarters of a year. ... Events and trends The 1980s marked an abrupt shift towards more conservative lifestyles after the momentous cultural revolutions which took place in the 1960s and 1970s and the definition of the AIDS virus in 1981. ... Events and trends Technology Explosive growth of the Internet; decrease in the cost of computers and other technology Reduction in size and cost of mobile phones leads to a massive surge in their popularity Year 2000 problem (commonly known as Y2K) Microsoft Windows operating system becomes virtually ubiquitous on IBM...

The implications of the model are controversial. Some petroleum economists, such as Michael Lynch, argue [3] that the Hubbert curve with a sharp peak is inapplicable globally due to the differences in oil reserves, political and military leverage, demand, and trade partnerships between countries and regions. starting goalie for the Glen Rock Varsity Ice Hockey team Eligible for NHL Draft in 2006 Expected to be a top 5 pick in the 2006 draft Ranked by The Hockey News as the 29th best prospect in 2004 Ranked by The Hockey News as the 4th best prospect in...

The United States Geological Survey estimates [4] that there are enough petroleum reserves to continue current production rates for 50 to 100 years. A year 2000 USGS study of world-wide oil reserves predicted a possible peak in oil production around the year 2037. That is countered by an important Saudi oil industry insider who says the American government's forecast for future oil supply is a "dangerous over-estimate."[5] Campbell argues that the USGS estimates are methodologically flawed. One problem, for example, is that OPEC countries overestimate their reserves to get higher oil quotas and to avoid internal critique. Population and economic growth may lead to increased energy consumption in the future. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) is a scientific agency of the United States government. ... Centuries: 20th century - 21st century - 22nd century Decades: 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s - 2030s - 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s Years: 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 - 2037 - 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 Events January 31 - Near-Earth object 2002 OD20 will make a close approach to Earth. ... Logo The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is made up of Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela; since 1965, its international headquarters have been in Vienna, Austria. ...

Further, the USGS reserve estimate appears to owe as much to politics as to research. According to the Energy Information Administration of the United States Department of Energy, "estimates are based on non-technical considerations that support domestic supply growth to the levels necessary to meet projected demand levels. [emphasis added]" (Annual Energy Outlook 1998 With Projections to 2020). The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is a Cabinet-level department of the United States government responsible for energy policy and nuclear safety. ...

Critics such as Leonardo Maugeri point out that Hubbert peak supporters such as Campbell previously predicted a peak in global oil production in both 1989 and 1995, based on oil production data available at that time. He claims that nearly all of the estimates do not take into account non-conventional oil even though the availability of these resources is huge and the costs of extraction, while still very high, are falling due to improved technology. (A drawback to this position is that heavy oil sources will never be as profitable as current light oil sources, both in production rates and energy gain.) Furthermore, he notes that the recovery rate from existing world oil fields has increased from about 22% in 1980 to 35% today due to new technology and predicts this trend will continue. According to Maugeri, the ratio between proven oil reserves and current production has constantly improved, passing from 20 years in 1948 to 35 years in 1972 and reaching about 40 years in 2003. Also according to Maugeri, these improvements occurred even with low investment in new exploration and upgrading technology due to the low oil prices during the last 20 years. The current higher oil prices may well cause increased investment (Maugeri, 2004). Non-conventional oil is oil extracted using techniques other than the traditional oil well method. ... Exploration is the act of searching or traveling for the purpose of discovery, e. ... // Technology [from Gr. ...

According to professor James H. L. Lawler, a modular plant, integrating several well proven technologies into a new system, could recover almost all the oil left from primary and secondary recovery, while at present economic recovery, only half of the oil or less is being recovered from a reservoir. [6] Thus, the world's reserves of oil could virtually double in a stroke. His process promises a recovery rate in excess of 95%, though consuming about 3% of total initial reserves for operating energy requirements. Therefore, massive additional amounts of oil could come from already known sites.

There are many other attempts to predict oil production. One example is that the global conventional oil production will peak somewhere between 2020 and 2050, but that the output is likely to increase at a substantially slower rate after 2020. A continued rapid increase in oil production requires an increased exploitation of non-conventional sources (Greene, 2003). Centuries: 20th century - 21st century - 22nd century Decades: 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s - 2050s - 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s 2100s Years: 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 - 2050 - 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055 Predictions relating to year 2050 April 19 - The United States of America is 100,000 days old. ...

As of June 2005, OPEC has admitted that they will 'struggle' to pump enough oil to meet pricing pressures for the fourth quarter of the year. It is expected that the summer and winter of 2005 will bring oil prices to a new high; some would say this is a prime example of demand starting to outstrip supply. Others could blame it on various geopolitical forces in the regions where oil is produced. One other explanation for the rising oil prices is that it is a sign of too much paper money and not too little oil. In this view, dramatically higher prices of all commodities and U.S. real estate indicates rising inflation. 2005 : January - February - March - April - May - June - July - August - September - October - November - December- → Deaths in June June 27: Shelby Foote June 27: John T. Walton June 26: Richard Whiteley June 25: John Fiedler June 25: Chet Helms June 24: Paul Winchell June 21: Jaime Cardinal Sin June 20: Jack Kilby...

The inclusion of these 'implications' is the subject of an NPOV dispute. See Talk:Hubbert Peak. Other factors, such as climate change, Mideast conflict and energy equity, drive the search for alternatives to oil combustion as a source of power. To state these 'implications' as if they were supply-side implications alone is a POV that seems to deny that these other compelling factors exist, and that they will the cause the shift earlier: most scientists agree that burning all the oil presently known to exist would destabilize the climate to an unpredictable degree. Only if they were wrong would these 'implications' follow: Shortcut: WP:NPOVD Articles that have been linked to this page are the subject of an NPOV dispute (NPOV stands for Neutral Point Of View; see below). ... Variations in CO2, temperature and dust from the Vostok ice core over the last 400 000 years The term climate change is used to refer to changes in the Earths global climate or regional climates. ...

Implications of a world peak

An oil power plant in Iraq.

It is widely considered that a world peak in cheap oil production would have a substantial adverse impact upon contemporary society. Economic growth and prosperity since the industrial revolution have, in large part, been due to the use of oil and other fossil fuels. Almost all agree that fossil fuels are finite and must be replaced with alternative energy sources in the future. However opinions differ as to when this will happen, how to replace fossil fuels with alternative energy sources, and how difficult it would be to implement such changes. Wikipedia does not have an article with this exact name. ... Wikipedia does not have an article with this exact name. ... Accumulated GDP growth for various countries. ... The Industrial Revolution was the major technological, socioeconomic and cultural change in the late 18th and early 19th century resulting from the replacement of an economy based on manual labor to one dominated by industry and machine manufacture. ...

Catastrophe

Some believe that the decreasing oil production portends a drastic impact on human culture and modern technological society, which is currently heavily dependent on oil as a fuel, chemical feedstock and fertilizer. Over 90% of transportation in the United States relies on oil. Some envisage a Malthusian catastrophe occurring as oil becomes increasingly inefficient to produce. Fertilizers or fertilisers are compounds given to plants with the intention of promoting growth; they are usually applied either via the soil, for uptake by plant roots, or by foliar spraying, for uptake through leaves. ... A Malthusian catastrophe, sometimes known as a Malthusian check, is a return to subsistence-level conditions as a result of agricultural (or, in later formulations, economic) production being eventually outstripped by growth in population. ...

Since the 1940s, agriculture has dramatically increased its productivity, due largely to the use of chemical pesticides, fertilizers, and increased mechanisation. This process has been called the Green Revolution. The increase in food production has allowed world population to grow dramatically over the last 50 years. Pesticides rely upon oil as a critical ingredient, and fertilizers require both oil and natural gas. Farm machinery also requires oil. Arguing that in today's world every joule one eats, requires 5-15 joules to produce and deliver, some have speculated that a decreasing supply of oil will cause modern industrial agriculture to collapse, leading to a drastic decline in food production, food shortages and possibly even mass starvation. // Events and trends The 1940s were dominated by World War II, the most destructive armed conflict in history. ... An airplane spreading pesticide. ... The Green Revolution is the process of technological development of agricultural techniques that began in Mexico in 1944 and has since spread throughout the world. ... The joule (symbol J, also called newton meter, watt second, or coulomb volt) is the SI unit of energy and work. ... Starvation is a severe reduction in vitamin, nutrient, and energy intake, and is the most extreme form of malnutrition. ...

Oil shortages may force a move to lower input "organic agriculture" methods which would probably be more labor-intensive, and require a population shift from urban to rural areas. In effect reversing the trend towards urbanisation which has predominated in industrial societies. Organic farming is a way of farming that avoids the use of synthetic chemicals and genetically modified organisms (GMOs), and usually subscribes to the principles of sustainable agriculture. ... Urbanization is the degree of or increase in urban character or nature. ...

Another possible effect would derive from America's transportation and housing infrastructure. A majority of Americans live in suburbs, a type of low-density settlement designed with the automobile in mind. Some commentators such as James Howard Kunstler argue that because of its reliance on the automobile, the suburb is an unsustainable living arrangment; the implications of peak oil would leave many Americans unable to afford fuel for their cars, and force them to move to higher density, more walkable areas. In effect, surburbia would comprise the "slums of the future." Illustration of the backyards of a surburban neighbourhood Suburbs are inhabited districts located either on the outer rim of a city or outside the official limits of a city (the term varies from country to country), or the outer elements of a conurbation. ... A small variety of cars, the most popular kind of automobile. ... James Howard Kunstler (born 1948) is an American author and social critic. ... A boy from an East Cipinang trash dump slum in Jakarta, Indonesia shows his find. ...

A movement to deal with this problem early, called "New Urbanism," seeks to develop the suburbs into higher density neighborhoods and use high density, mixed-use forms for new building projects. New urbanism is an urban design movement that became very popular beginning in the 1980s and early 1990s. ...

Recession

Even a benign scenario with a slow rate of depletion and a smooth transition to alternative energy sources may well cause great economic hardship such as a recession or depression due to higher energy prices. There is a close correlation in the timing of oil price spikes and economic downturns. Inflation has also been linked to oil price spikes. However, economists disagree on the strength and causes of this association. The world economy may be less dependent on oil than during earlier oil crises. Conversely, the recessions of the early 1970s and early 1980s were associated with a relatively brief period of somewhat dwindling energy availability; the possible future increase in oil prices might be much higher and last longer. See Energy crisis. A recession is usually defined in macroeconomics as a fall of a countrys real Gross National Product in two or more successive quarters of a year. ... In economics, a depression is a term commonly used for a sustained downturn in the economy. ... This article provides extensive lists of events and significant personalities of the 1970s. ... // Events and trends The 1980s marked an abrupt shift towards more conservative lifestyles after the momentous cultural revolutions which took place in the 60s and 70s and the definition of the AIDS virus in 1981. ... An energy crisis is any great shortfall (or price rise) in the supply of energy to an economy. ...

The developing world

A decline in fossil fuels also affects development in the third world, as it touches on the question of whether it is possible for the vast majority of humanity to live at standards of living currently found in the United States and Europe. Pessimists argue that resource limitations make this scenario impossible, while optimists strongly disagree, although they might admit that the switch to alternative energy may cause great temporary problems. World map showing location of Europe Europe is geologically and geographically a peninsula, forming the westernmost part of Eurasia. ...

New technology

New technology may allow new energy sources to be used and may allow more energy to be extracted from old ones. Most of the potential energy in energy sources is not converted to a useful form. For example, only 10-20% of the sunlight is converted to electricity in solar cells and only 35% of the oil in a typical field is recovered. New technology may increase these numbers. Many of the non-conventional oils today require more energy to extract than can be gained from the oil itself. This may also change with new technology. Opposed to this is the problem that the remaining fossil fuel reserves usually are increasingly difficult to extract. They may be in increasingly remote areas, such as far below the surface of the ocean or in the Arctic. They may also be of increasingly lower quality, and thus more difficult to refine. Both of these factors may affect oil price in the future, making it difficult to predict. In the end, new technology cannot prevent oil production from declining since the amount of oil is finite. But new technology may push the peak farther into the future than what is predicted today. Lightning strikes during a night-time thunderstorm. ... A solar cell, a form of photovoltaic cell, is a device that uses the photoelectric effect to generate electricity from light, thus generating solar power (energy). ... The red line indicates the 10°C isotherm in July, commonly used to define the Arctic region border The Arctic is the area around the Earths North Pole. ... View of the Shell/Valero Martinez oil refinery An oil refinery is an industrial process plant where crude oil is processed and refined into useful petroleum products. ...

Environmental degradation

When oil production begins to decline, humanity may increasingly turn to less environmentally friendly energy sources such as coal, of which there are still significant reserves remaining on Earth. This may exacerbate global warming, and health and developmental problems such as cancer and autism [7]. For this reason, many peak oil proponents advise that an alternative energy source should not be considered unless it is less polluting than oil. Coal is a fossil fuel extracted from the ground either by underground mining, open-pit mining or strip mining. ... Global mean surface temperatures 1856-2004 Mean temperature anomalies during the period 1995 to 2004 with respect to the average temperatures from 1940 to 1980 Global warming is a term used to describe the increase over time of the average temperature of the Earths atmosphere and oceans. ... When normal cells are damaged or old they undergo apoptosis; cancer cells, however, avoid apoptosis. ... Autism is classified as a neurodevelopmental disorder that manifests itself in markedly abnormal social interaction, communication ability, patterns of interests, and patterns of behavior. ...

Market solution

A market solution is the belief that the rise of oil prices due to scarcity would stimulate investment in oil replacement technologies and/or more efficient oil extraction technologies and/or an increase in productivity. The economic challenge within an environment of decreasing energy supplies is the fact that research of alternative energy sources currently relies upon fossil fuels for development. Critics argue that if conventional oil and natural gas become more expensive, alternative energy source development and increased technological efficiency research will become more expensive to the same degree.

Presumably, as rising energy costs exceed the labor costs of construction, and as long-term interest rates drop to match the falling productivity of an energy-starved economy, other sources of energy would become increasingly more attractive. However, critics argue that market solution proponents mistakingly phrase everything in terms of money, i.e., they only consider the price of oil, when in reality the important metric is energy efficiency (the ratio of extracted energy over energy used by the extraction and refining processes). An analogy in simpler terms would be:

Imagine you are driving a car and you have only 1 gallon of gasoline left. In order to reach the nearest gas station, however, you need about 2 gallons of gasoline. In this context, the price of gas is irrelevant: it doesn't matter if you are willing to pay two, three, ten or one hundred dollars per gallon, because the car will never reach the gas station.

Or, as Franco Battaglia put it: "You can buy an apple for one euro. If you really want an apple, you might pay five euros. You could even pay a thousand euros, but you would never pay two apples." The gallon (abbr. ... FUCK THE EURO! ALL COUNTRIES USING THE EURO MUST RETURN TO THEIR RESPECTIVE CURRENCIES! THE EURO IS ONLY THERE TO FUEL INFLATION! FUCK THE INFLATION! STOP IT IN ITS TRACKS! I DONT WANT TO HAVE TO PAY TEN MILLION DOLLARS FOR A MCDONALDS HAMBURGER WHEN I AM IN...

The market solution's counterargument is that with more money, you can pay someone to go to the gas station to bring the gas to you, or push your car to the gas station, or convert your car to run something other than gas.

Additionally, some critics believe that a market solution is likely to result in profiteering by energy suppliers from the price shock, due to the scarcity of oil and artificial scarcity of replacement sources of energy, rather than providing a smooth transition from oil to other energy sources. The act of price gouging in an undersupplied market. ...

Another market-based solution is that if an impending increase in oil prices was likely, it would be reflected in the oil futures market [8]. As of 2005, this is not the case. A futures contract is a form of forward contract, a contract to buy or sell an asset of any kind at a pre-agreed future point in time, that has been standardised for a wide range of uses. ...

Alternatively, since energy itself is not a fungible commodity, certain types of energy have a higher value than others. If for example an apple is ten times more valuable than an orange, than it is quite reasonable to pay ten oranges for one apple. Because of the energy density and relative safety of gasoline at room temperature and atmospheric pressure, it is uniquely suitable for transportation, particularly in the United States where anti-cooperative attitudes encourage single drivers to commute to work in military vehicles. The qualities of oil therefore go beyond the mere measure of its energy content and as a consequence the value of oil is substantially higher than immobile forms of energy. So long as alternative energies are available for less than the cost of extracting oil which could be used to power the drilling, pumping and refining equipment, than indeed market forces rather than energy returned on energy invested (EROI) will dictate the production of non-fungible fuels.

Increased fuel efficiency

Any moderate oil price increase is expected to stimulate an increase in transportation fuel efficiency. Some believe this would postpone and lessen the impact of severe oil shortages. For example some governments mandate a minimum fuel efficiency standard for automobiles. It may also cause a shift to forms of transport which are not so dependent upon oil. Electricity, in particular, can be generated from a number of different sources. This may lead to increased use of transport such as trains, trams/streetcars, trolleybuses and hybrid vehicles instead of fully oil dependent trucks, cars and aircraft. For trips of less than 5-10 km, bicycles may become the preferred means of travel, and for longer trips, the combination of bicycles and trains may be the most economical solution for commuters across the Western world. Fuel efficiency relates the efficiency of conversion to kinetic energy from energy contained in a carrier fuel, specifically in a transportation vehicle, such as an automobile. ... Lightning strikes during a night-time thunderstorm. ... There are various types of trains designed for particular purposes, see rail transport operations. ... Street cars in New Orleans A modern tram in the Töölö district of Helsinki, Finland For modern innovations aimed at increasing the capacity and speed of tramway systems, see light rail. ... a historic postcard showing electric trolley-powered streetcars in Richmond, Virginia, where Frank J. Sprague successfully demonstrated his new system on the hills in 1888 A streetcar is a railway vehicle designed to carry passengers on tracks, usually laid in city streets. ... An articulated trolleybus in Arnhem A trolleybus (also known as electric bus, trolley bus, trolley coach, trackless trolley, trackless tram or simply trolley) is a bus powered by two overhead electric wires, from which the bus draws electricity using two trolley poles. ... Honda Insight, a hybrid gas-electric vehicle 2004 Toyota Prius, a hybrid gas-electric vehicle A hybrid vehicle uses multiple energy sources or propulsion systems to provide motive power. ... The driver of a car transporter truck prepares to offload Skoda Octavia cars in Cardiff, Wales For further uses of the word truck, see Truck (disambiguation). ... A small variety of cars, the most popular kind of automobile. ... An aircraft is any machine capable of atmospheric flight. ... A kilometre (American spelling: kilometer, symbol: km) is a unit of length equal to 1000 metres (from the Greek words khilia = thousand and metro = count/measure). ... The term Western world or the West can have multiple meanings depending on its context. ...

However, others will note that an increase in fuel efficiency may in fact compound the problem. This phenomenon is referred to as the Jevons paradox, which states that as technological improvements increase the efficiency with which a resource is used, total consumption of that resource may increase, rather than decrease. Additionally if people manage to do more work with less fuel, their relative ratio of income to oil price goes down, giving them the ability to support a higher price for oil than before. This makes it even more worthwhile to extract hard to reach oil, and faster. On the other hand, if the price of oil increases at the same rate as the increase in efficiency, there is no extra buying power generated and balance with demand is maintained. Finally, if the price of oil increases faster than efficiency, buying power goes down, and inflation begins while the demand for oil goes down. The Jevons Paradox, named after its discoverer, William Stanley Jevons, states that as technological improvements increase the efficiency with which a resource is used, total consumption of that resource may increase, rather than decrease. ...

Once the rate of oil extraction can no longer increase with demand, in other words the oil peak has been reached, Jevons paradox instantly ceases to apply. The price of oil may still continue to increase, but the amount of oil available to the economy remains the same or even goes downwards. This means that anyone wishing to maintain the same standards of living must increase efficiency from that moment on, as it will not be economical to be less efficient with oil. In conclusion very high oil prices will force efficiency universally, but also means the more efficient use of oil can only keep oil at a high price or slow its rate of gaining even higher prices, once oil returns to a lower price the incentive for efficiency is equally reduced and efficiency will drop, and thus the Jevons paradox will likely take effect.

Political implications

As of 2005, the United States economy is the world's largest user of oil, with a historical reliance on what have been, and still are, some of the world's lowest oil prices. Its position as the global hyperpower rests on its economic supremacy, which in turn depends heavily on oil being sold to it at a price that does not create a United States trade deficit that forces down the value of the US dollar against foreign currencies. At the same time, the world's largest oil reserves are held by Saudi Arabia, followed by those of Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Iran and Russia. If a Hubbert Peak occurs and oil becomes a progressively more scarce commodity, it is reasonable to expect the possibility of political and economic tension between its principal producers and consumers. 2005 is a common year starting on Saturday of the Gregorian calendar. ... A hyperpower is a powerful country that is vastly stronger than any potential rival. ...

Some observers see the actions of the U.S. government in the middle east, including the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, as the continuation of a long-term geopolitical struggle driven by the need of a nation built upon now nearly-depleted domestic oil resources to secure replacement oil supplies from overseas at an acceptable price. This article contains information that has not been verified. ...

Lifestyle choices

A significant percentage of today's resource use is based upon lifestyle choice rather than unalterable human needs. The United States has 5% of world's population but accounts for 24.8% of global oil consumption by using 20.52 million barrels of oil per day according to the U.S. Department of Energy. Europe, not including Russia, accounts for an additional 19.9% of the world's oil consumption by using 16.45 million barrels of oil daily. The voluntary simplicity movement advocates a shift from consumerism to a reduced use of natural resources and energy. Regardless of choice, a period of decreasing fossil fuel reserves is likely to lead to a decrease of demand for goods and services. However, environmentally friendly, low-energy replacements for many current activities are increasingly or already available. For example, commuting using bicycles and mass transit as well as eating home-cooked, locally grown, organic meals instead of highly-packaged convenience foods from restaurants and grocery stores. Jobs that make use of telecommuting or that are nearer to home with shorter commuting distance may become increasingly desirable. Voluntary simplicity is a lifestyle considered by its adherents to be a sustainable, ecologically sensitive alternative to the typical, western consumerist lifestyle. ... Consumerism is a term used to describe the effects of equating personal happiness with purchasing material possessions and consumption. ... This article or section should include material from One-Hour Thanksgiving Dinner. ... Telecommuting is a term used in the USA, coined by Jack Nilles to describe a work arrangement in which employees enjoy flexibility in work place and time (within certain limits). ... Commuting is the process of traveling between a place of residence and a place of work. ...

Some critics of consumerism argue that modern society has addictive elements, exacerbated by advertising and overuse of credit; this addiction has been dubbed affluenza. If so, any future decline in energy supplies may force people to break out of their current consumer lifestyle and begin to rethink their values. Such a re-evaluation may induce a tipping point to further accelerate people away from a high-energy lifestyle. Other processional effects may include healthier lifestyles (reducing demands for medical resources) and improved communities and family relationships (reducing the demand to divert resources to fix social problems). Generally speaking, advertising is the paid promotion of goods, services, companies and ideas by an identified sponsor. ... The term credit can have several meanings in different contexts. ... Affluenza is a portmanteau word formed by the contraction of affluence and influenza. ... Value is a term that expresses the concept of worth in general, and it is thought to be connected to reasons for certain practices, policies, or actions. ... The phrase tipping point or angle of repose is a sociology term that refers to that dramatic moment when something unique becomes common. ... Health care or healthcare is one of the worlds largest and fastest growing professions. ...

Changes in lifestyle choices have other important practical advantages. First, under extreme conditions, social change can proceed much more rapidly than large-scale infrastructure change. Second, the other alternatives assume the results are technologically feasible, whereas decreased energy availability can be planned for and potentially mitigated by increased efficiency and less demand. Finally, living simply can reduce one's reliance on the well-being of the global economy. Even so, a serious shift from a high-energy lifestyle could lead to increased unemployment, and bankrupt many businesses and markets. Dorothea Langes Migrant Mother depicts destitute pea pickers in California during the Great Depression. ... Bankruptcy is a legally declared inability or impairment of ability of an individual or organization to pay their creditors. ...

Others are pessimistic about the lifestyle changes needed to reduce energy demand. If society doesn't proactively reduce energy use and consumption remains high as supplies run entirely out, this reduction may be imposed by a reducing energy supply. Many of these lifestyle changes are seen as unpleasant. People may be forced to work more to replace the work previously done by machines. Airplanes and cars may be replaced by railroads, ships and mass transport. People may travel much less, for example staying at home during holidays. Foods like meat, chocolate, coffee, tea, fish, and milk may be replaced by locally produced cereals and vegetables. Air conditioning may disappear. People may move to smaller houses that cost less to build and heat. In general, there will be less consumption because higher power cost affects all stages of production and transportation. In extreme cases there may be rationing of electricity, transportation fuel and heating. Rationing is the controlled distribution of resources and scarce goods or services: it restricts how much people are allowed to buy or consume. ...

Global solutions

Although the conventional wisdom of individual energy conservation is a compelling approach to energy stability, it is also possible that this approach is entirely naive. The Jevons paradox implies that as individuals become increasingly efficient, the overall economy will compensate by supporting additional individuals and increasing overall consumption. Energy conservation is the idealistic or economic practice of using energy resources in a sustainable way by considering which processes are wasteful, and addressing those inefficiencies. ... The Jevons Paradox, named after its discoverer, William Stanley Jevons, states that as technological improvements increase the efficiency with which a resource is used, total consumption of that resource may increase, rather than decrease. ...

When a small percentage of the population chooses to drive fuel efficient automobiles, and a large percentage drives inefficient vehicles, every barrel of oil saved by the efficient group is ultimately consumed by the less efficient group. In fact, the net effect of the conservation will be to lower the price pressure on the inefficient consumption, and thus make such consumption more desirable in economic terms.

Even those who choose to stay at home and telecommute have a significant global impact. Telecommuting requires a vast computer infrastructure to be effective. Worldwide, this infrastructure consumes enormous energy resources. Also, computers are a major source of some of the worst types of pollution, including heavy metals. A computer is a device or machine for making calculations or controlling operations that are expressible in numerical or logical terms. ... For other meanings, see heavy metal The term heavy metal may have various more general or more specific meanings. ...

Therefore it is likely that no individual effort will be able to resolve world energy resource consumption. Only global solutions involving agreements between all world energy consumers and strict enforcement will have a significant impact on world energy problems.

Alternatives to conventional oil

When conventional oil begins depletion the following alternative energy options may be increasingly relied upon to meet the world's energy needs. These and other potential energy alternatives are also discussed elsewhere (See Renewable energy and future energy development). // Renewable energy (sources) or RES capture their energy from existing flows of energy, from on-going natural processes, such as sunshine, wind, flowing water, biological processes, and geothermal heat flows. ... Energy development is the ongoing effort to provide abundant and accessible energy, through knowledge, skills and constructions. ...

Non-conventional oil

Non-conventional oil is another source of oil separate from conventional or traditional oil. Non-conventional sources include: tar sands, oil shale and bitumen. Potentially significant deposits of non-conventional oil include the Athabasca Oil Sands site in northwestern Canada and the Venezuelan Orinoco tar sands. Oil companies estimate that the Athabasca and Orinoco sites (both of similar size) have as much as two-thirds of total global oil deposits, but they are not yet considered proven reserves of oil. Extracting a significant percentage of world oil production from tar sands may not be feasible. The extraction process takes a great deal of energy for heat and electrical power, presently coming from natural gas (itself in short supply). There are proposals to build a series of nuclear reactors to supply this energy. Non-conventional oil production is currently less efficient, and has a larger environmental impact than conventional oil production. Non-conventional oil is oil extracted using techniques other than the traditional oil well method. ... Open pit mining Tar sands, also referred to as oil sand or bituminous sand, is a combination of clay, sand, water, and bitumen. ... Oil shale is a general term applied to a group of fine black to dark brown shales rich enough in bituminous material (called kerogen) to yield petroleum upon distillation. ... Bitumen Bitumen is a category of organic liquids which are highly viscous, black, sticky and wholly soluble in carbon disulfide. ... Tar sands in Alberta The Athabasca Oil Sands (or Tar Sands) is a large deposit of tar sands in north-western Canada located mainly in the province of Alberta and, to a much lesser degree Saskatchewan. ... With a length of 2,141 km, the Orinoco is one of the largest rivers of South America. ... Natural gas (commonly refered to as gas in many countries) is a gaseous fossil fuel consisting primarily of methane. ... Nuclear power station at Leibstadt, Switzerland. ...

Other fossil fuels and the Fischer-Tropsch process

It is expected by geologists that natural gas will peak 5-15 years after oil does. There are large but finite coal reserves which may increasingly be used as a fuel source during oil depletion. The Fischer-Tropsch process converts carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and methane into liquid hydrocarbons of various forms. The carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide is generated by partial oxidation of coal and wood-based fuels. This process was developed and used extensively in World War II by Germany, who had limited access to crude oil supplies. It is today used in South Africa to produce most of that country's diesel from coal. Since there are large but finite coal reserves in the world, this technology could be used as an interim transportation fuel if conventional oil were to disappear. There are several companies developing the process to enable practical exploitation of so-called stranded gas reserves, those reserves which are impractical to exploit with conventional gas pipelines and LNG technology. Natural gas (commonly refered to as gas in many countries) is a gaseous fossil fuel consisting primarily of methane. ... Coal is a fossil fuel extracted from the ground either by underground mining, open-pit mining or strip mining. ... The Fischer-Tropsch process is a catalyzed chemical reaction in which carbon monoxide and hydrogen are converted into liquid hydrocarbons of various forms. ... Carbon dioxide is an atmospheric gas composed of one carbon and two oxygen atoms. ... Carbon monoxide, chemical formula CO, is a colourless, odourless, flammable and highly toxic gas. ... The simplest hydrocarbon, methane, is a gas with a chemical formula of CH4. ... In chemistry, a hydrocarbon is any chemical compound that consists only of carbon (C) and hydrogen (H). ... The most fundamental reactions in chemistry are the redox processes. ... World War II was a truly global conflict with many facets: immense human suffering, fierce indoctrinations, and the use of new, extremely devastating weapons like the atom bomb. ... Diesel fuel is a specific distillate fraction of fuel oil that is used in a diesel engine invented by German engineer Rudolf Diesel, and perfected by Charles F. Kettering. ... A Stranded gas reserve is a Natural gas field that has been discovered, but remains unusable for either physicial or economic reasons. ... Liquefied natural gas or LNG is natural gas that has been cooled until it becomes liquid, and it is stored in tanks. ...

Methanol can be used in internal combustion engines with minor modifications. It usually is made from natural gas, sometimes from coal and could be made from any carbon source including CO₂. However this is not in itself a source of energy, but a way to obtain oil with a net loss of energy which has to come from a source like fossil fuel planetary reserves, solar radiation (either through photosynthesis, photovoltaic panels or some other undiscovered way) or others. Methanol, also known as methyl alcohol or wood alcohol, is a chemical compound with chemical formula CH3OH. It is the simplest alcohol, and is a light, volatile, colourless, flammable, poisonous liquid that is used as an antifreeze, solvent, fuel, and as a denaturant for ethyl alcohol. ... A colorized automobile engine An internal combustion engine is an engine that is powered by the expansion of hot combustion products of fuel directly acting within an engine. ... Solar irradiance spectrum at top of atmosphere. ... Leaf. ... A solar cell, a form of photovoltaic cell, is a device that uses the photoelectric effect to generate electricity from light, thus generating solar power (energy). ...

Nuclear power

The U.S. would require at least an eightfold increase in nuclear power production, from 10% of all energy supplied to about 90%, to replace both the current amount of electricity generated from fossil fuels and gasoline usage. Nuclear engineers estimate that the world can derive 400,000 quads of energy (1000 years at current levels of consumption) from uranium isotope 235, if reprocessing is not employed. As uranium ore supplies are limited, a majority of this uranium would have to somehow be cost effectively extracted from seawater. This article is about power derived from nuclear reactions. ... Nuclear engineering is the practical application of the principles of nuclear physics and the interaction between radiation and matter. ... Look up quadri- in Wiktionary, the free dictionary For the numerical prefix quadri-/quadr- see Wiktionary. ... General Name, Symbol, Number uranium, U, 92 Chemical series actinides Group, Period, Block ?, 7, f Appearance silvery gray metallic Atomic mass 238. ...

Fast breeder reactors are another possibility. As opposed to current LWR (light water reactors) which burn the rare isotope of uranium U-235, fast breeder reactors produce plutonium from U-238, and then fission that to produce electricity and thermal heat. It has been estimated that there is anywhere from 10,000 to five billion years' worth of U-238 for use in these power plants, and that they can return a high ratio of energy returned on energy invested (EROEI), and avoid some of the problems of current reactors by being automated, passively safe, and reaching economies of scale via mass production. There are a few such research projects working on fast breeders - Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory being one, currently working on the small, sealed, transportable, autonomous reactor (SSTAR). The fast breeder or fast breeder reactor (FBR) is a type of fast neutron reactor that produces more fissile material than it consumes. ... A light water reactor or LWR is a thermal nuclear reactor that uses ordinary water (as opposed to heavy water) as its neutron moderator. ... Isotopes are forms of a chemical element whose nuclei have the same atomic number, Z, but different atomic masses, A. The word isotope, meaning at the same place, comes from the fact that all isotopes of an element are located at the same place on the periodic table. ... General Name, Symbol, Number uranium, U, 92 Chemical series actinides Group, Period, Block ?, 7, f Appearance silvery gray metallic Atomic mass 238. ... General Name, Symbol, Number plutonium, Pu, 94 Chemical series actinides Group, Period, Block ?, 7, f Appearance silvery white Atomic mass (244) g/mol Electron configuration [Rn] 5f6 7s2 Electrons per shell 2, 8, 18, 32, 24, 8, 2 Physical properties Phase solid Density (near r. ... EROEI (energy returned on energy invested) is the ratio between the amount of energy expended to obtain a resource, compared with the amount of energy obtained from that resource. ... Passively safe is a form of nuclear reactor which uses the laws of physics to keep the nuclear reaction under control rather than engineered safety systems. ... Mass production is the production of large amounts of standardised products on production lines. ... Aerial view of the lab and surrounding area. ... Sstar is an acronym for the small, sealed, transportable, autonomous reactor - being primarily researched and developed in the US by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. ...

The long-term radioactive waste storage problems of nuclear power have not been solved, although onsite spent fuel storage in casks has allowed power plants to make room in their spent fuel pools. One possible solution several countries are considering is using underground repositories. The U.S nuclear waste from various locations is planned to be entombed inside Yucca Mountain, Nevada. A Russian fissile material storage facility Radioactive waste is waste material containing radioactive chemical elements that does not have a practical purpose. ... Yucca Mountain Yucca Mountain is a ridge-line in Nye County, Nevada; composed of volcanic material (mostly tuff) ejected from a now-extinct caldera-forming supervolcano. ...

Because automobiles and trucks consume a great deal of the total energy budget of developed countries, some means would be required to deliver the energy generated from nuclear heat to these vehicles. The most simple solution is electric vehicles, like electric cars. Mass transit will play a role, as it is readily electrified. Some think that hydrogen may play a role (see below). If so, it would be produced by electrolysis, either conventionally or at high temperatures supplied by reactor heat. An electric vehicle is a vehicle that is propelled by electric motors. ...

Fusion power

Main article: Fusion power The Sun is a natural fusion reactor. ...

It is relatively easy to start nuclear fusion reactions, which generate lots of energy (cf. nuclear weapons). However, the energy input needed in achieving the necessary temperature and electromagnetic confinement for controlled and sustained fusion is much too vast to maintain a significant energy gain. The deuterium-tritium fusion reaction is considered the most promising for producing fusion power. ... The mushroom cloud of the atomic bombing of Nagasaki, Japan, 1945, rose some 18 km (11 mi) above the epicenter. ...

Electricity produced in a typical fusion facility would not involve the creation of millenary radioactive waste, neither would it involve a risk of nuclear meltdown[9]. Electricity produced using the DT (Deuterium-Tritium) fuel cycle (the option that is most likely to be implemented) takes natural resources which are essentially inexhaustible[10]. Lightning strikes during a night-time thunderstorm. ... A Russian fissile material storage facility Radioactive waste is waste material containing radioactive chemical elements that does not have a practical purpose. ... Lightning strikes during a night-time thunderstorm. ... Deuterium, also called heavy hydrogen, is a stable isotope of hydrogen with a natural abundance of one atom in 6500 of hydrogen. ... Tritium (symbol T or 3H) is a radioactive isotope of hydrogen. ...

The research to make fusion power possible started in 1950, and has made remarkable progress since then [11]. ITER will be the first fusion reactor which reaches ignition, will cost 10 billion dollars and its construction will start in 2006, while in 2015 it should be ready[12]. The European Union, Japan, Russia, the USA, South Korea and China are jointly participating in ITER. Cutaway of the ITER Tokamak Torus incasing. ... Ignition is the act of starting a reaction. ... 2006 is a common year starting on Sunday of the Gregorian calendar. ...

However, ITER is only a scientific project. It will not generate electricity. If the current rate of research is maintained, fusion power may become a viable economic alternative to oil around 2050 [13].

Another problem regarding fusion power is that fusion might be an alternative to oil only to generate electricity. However, a great portion of oil consumption is related to transportation and production of oil derivates (plastics, fertilizers, etc...). Hydrogen fuel cells are a potential solution to the transportation problem, but the technology is still being developed. The term plastics covers a range of synthetic or semi-synthetic organic condensation or polymerization products that can be molded or extruded into objects or films or fibers. ... Fertilizers are chemicals given to plants with the intention of promoting growth; they are usually applied either via the soil or by foliar spraying. ... A fuel cell is an electrochemical device similar to a battery, but differing from the latter in that it is designed for continuous replenishment of the reactants consumed; i. ...

Renewable energy

Main article: Renewable energy // Renewable energy (sources) or RES capture their energy from existing flows of energy, from on-going natural processes, such as sunshine, wind, flowing water, biological processes, and geothermal heat flows. ...

Another possible solution to a potential future energy shortage would be to use some of the world's remaining fossil fuel reserves as an investment in renewable energy infrastructure such as wind power, solar power, tidal power, geothermal power, hydropower, thermal depolymerization, ethanol and biodiesel which do not suffer from finite energy reserves, but do have a finite energy flow. The construction of sufficiently large renewable energy infrastructure might avoid the economic consequences of an extended period of decline in fossil fuel energy supply per capita. // Renewable energy (sources) or RES capture their energy from existing flows of energy, from on-going natural processes, such as sunshine, wind, flowing water, biological processes, and geothermal heat flows. ... Wind power is the kinetic energy of wind, or the extraction of this energy by wind turbines. ... Solar power describes a number of methods of harnessing energy from the light of the sun. ... Tidal power is a means of electricity generation achieved by capturing the energy contained in moving water mass due to tides. ... Thermally active area, New Zealand. ... Hydraulic turbine and electrical generator. ... Thermal depolymerization (TDP) is a process for the reduction of complex organic materials (usually waste products of various sorts, often known as biomass) into light crude oil. ... Ethanol, also known as ethyl alcohol or grain alcohol, is a flammable, colorless chemical compound, one of the alcohols that is most often found in alcoholic beverages. ... Bus running on soybean biodiesel. ...

Biodiesel has some potential advantages because it could replace petroleum diesel without engine modification, and could reuse existing fuel distribution infrastructure. Hydro electric power currently produces electricity more cheaply than natural-gas turbines; as a result, nearly every river in North America that can be dammed has been. Gigantic hydropower projects have recently been built all around the world (see Itaipu and Three Gorges Dam). Another promising renewable energy source may be wind power (currently over four times as efficient as solar PV power systems). Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Plants are economic in arid and semiarid regions today. This is particularly true if these solar power plants are designed to take full advantage of the combined heat and power potential outputs. These solar facilities can produce not only electricity, but also steam, hot water, chilled water, and ice using absorption refrigeration cycle equipment. Thermal depolymerization, like biodiesel, has significant current interest and investment because of the potential to replace or gradually replace oil based transportation fuels. Itaipu Dam Itaipu (Guarani: Itaipú; pronounced ) is a dam that includes the largest hydroelectric power plant in the world. ... The Three Gorges Dam (Chinese: 三峡大坝; pinyin: ) spans the Yangtze River (the third longest river in the world) at Sandouping, Yichang, Hubei province, China. ... A photovoltaic cell is a device that turns light into electric energy. ... Solar power describes a number of methods of harnessing energy from the light of the sun. ... Thermal depolymerization (TDP) is a process for the reduction of complex organic materials (usually waste products of various sorts, often known as biomass) into light crude oil. ...

One factor potentially in renewable energy's favor is its much smaller environmental impact. Renewable energy sources may have a significantly smaller total "cost" compared with fossil fuel production after factoring in pollution - in other words, oil production is likely more expensive (compared to renewable energy) than the initial price seems to indicate, if you factor in the cost of pollution on our public health programs.

Speculative

A very small minority of geologists support the abiogenic petroleum origin theory. They claim that very large amounts of hydrocarbons exist extremely deep underground. Thomas Gold, author of The Deep, Hot Biosphere, is one of the most prominent proponents of this theory. Even if this very controversial theory is true, it may be of little relevance for the near future since drilling costs increase with depth. The theory of abiogenic petroleum origin states that petroleum (or crude oil) is primarily created from non-biological sources of hydrocarbons located deep in the crust of the Earth. ... Thomas Gold (May 22, 1920 – June 22, 2004) was an Austrian astrophysicist, a professor of astronomy at Cornell University, and a member of the US National Academy of Sciences. ...

Hydrogen

Proponents of a hydrogen economy think hydrogen could hold the key to ongoing energy demands. Relatively new technologies (such as fuel cells) can be used to efficiently harness the chemical energy stored in diatomic hydrogen (H₂). However, there is no accessible natural reserve of uncombined hydrogen (what there is resides in Earth's outer exosphere) and thus hydrogen for use as fuel must first be produced using another energy source; hydrogen would thus actually be a means to transport energy, rather than an energy source, just as common rechargeable batteries do. The most immediately feasible hydrogen mass production method is steam methane reformation, which requires natural gas, itself potentially in increasingly short supply. Another method of hydrogen production is through water electrolysis which can use electricity generated from any combination of: fossil fuels, nuclear, and/or renewable energy sources. Biomass or coal gasification, photoelectrolysis, and genetically modified organisms have also been proposed as means to produce hydrogen. A hydrogen economy is a hypothetical future economy in which the primary form of stored energy for mobile applications and load balancing is hydrogen. ... A fuel cell is an electrochemical device similar to a battery, but differing from the latter in that it is designed for continuous replenishment of the reactants consumed; i. ... The exosphere (from the Greek words exo = out(side) and sphaira = ball) is the uppermost layer of the atmosphere. ... In chemistry and manufacturing, electrolysis is a method of separating bonded elements and compounds by passing an electric current through them. ... Gasification is a process that converts carbonaceous materials, such as coal or biomass, into carbon monoxide and hydrogen. ... Photoelectrolysis occurs when light is used for electrolysis. ... It has been suggested that Genetic engineering be merged into this article or section. ...

According to the majority of energy experts and researchers, hydrogen is currently impractical as an alternative to fossil based liquid fuels. It is inefficient to produce, insufficiently energy dense (hydrogen gas tanks would need to be 2-3 times as large as conventional gas tanks), and expensive to transport and convert back to electricity. However, theoretically it is more efficient to burn fossil fuels to produce hydrogen than burning oil directly in car engines (due to efficiencies of scale). Unfortunately, this does not take into consideration the significant energy cost of having to build hundreds of millions of new hydrogen powered vehicles plus hydrogen fuel distribution infrastructure. Research on the feasibility of hydrogen as a fuel is still underway, and the outcome is at best uncertain.

Organizations

• Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO), founded by Dr. Colin J. Campbell.

• The Bioregional Revolution -Organization promoting sustainability and bioregionalism in response to peak oil.

ASPO predicts that oil production will peak around 2007. ... Colin J. Campbell, Ph. ... The Bioregional Revolutionary Movement, associated with the Revolutionary Army for Nonviolence and Sustainability or RANS, is an organization promoting ecovillages,bioregionalism, permaculture, natural capitalism, and local currencies as solutions to a world of coverging problems. ...

See also

• Abiotic oil
• Energy crisis
• Ghawar Field
• Olduvai theory
• 1973 energy crisis
• 1979 energy crisis
• 1990 spike in the price of oil
• Oil price increases of 2004 and 2005
• Ehrlich-Simon bet
• OPEC
• Peaknik
• Power outage
• Energy conservation
• Energy development
• Renewable energy
• Tar sands
• Petrodollar

The theory of abiogenic petroleum origin states that petroleum (or crude oil) is primarily created from non-biological sources of hydrocarbons located deep in the Earth. ... An energy crisis is any great shortfall (or price rise) in the supply of energy to an economy. ... Ghawar Field is a large oil field in Saudi Arabia. ... The Olduvai theory was first introduced by Richard C. Duncan, Ph. ... (Redirected from 1973 energy crisis) United States, drivers of vehicles with odd numbered license plates were allowed to purchase gasoline only on odd-numbered days of the month, while drivers with even-numbers were limited to even-numbered days. ... Oil prices from 1860-1999 in 1999 dollars. ... The 1990 (or third) energy crisis was the mildest and most brief of them all. ... Oil price in 2003-2005 Oil prices from 1860-1999 in 1999 dollars. ... Julian Simon and Paul Ehrlich entered in a famous wager in 1980, betting on a mutually agreed upon measure of resource scarcity over the decade leading up to 1990. ... Logo The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is made up of Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela; since 1965, its international headquarters have been in Vienna, Austria. ... One who studies or has an interest in the Peak Oil or the Hubbert peak theory of oil depletion proposed by M. King Hubbert and is concerned for the possible long effects on society. ... A power outage is the loss of the electricity supply to an area. ... Energy conservation is the idealistic or economic practice of using energy resources in a sustainable way by considering which processes are wasteful, and addressing those inefficiencies. ... Energy development is the ongoing effort to provide abundant and accessible energy, through knowledge, skills and constructions. ... // Renewable energy (sources) or RES capture their energy from existing flows of energy, from on-going natural processes, such as sunshine, wind, flowing water, biological processes, and geothermal heat flows. ... Open pit mining Tar sands, also referred to as oil sand or bituminous sand, is a combination of clay, sand, water, and bitumen. ... A petrodollar is a dollar earned by a country through the sale of oil. ...

Further reading

• Michael Ruppert, Crossing the Rubicon: The Decline of the American Empire at the End of the Age of Oil, New Society Publishers, 2004, ISBN 0865715408
• M. King Hubbert, "Energy from Fossil Fuels", Science, vol. 109, pp. 103-109, February 4, 1949
• Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage, Princeton University Press, 2003, ISBN 0691116253
• Colin J. Campbell, The Coming Oil Crisis, Multi-Science Publishing Co. Ltd., 2004, ISBN 0906522110
• Richard Heinberg, The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies, New Society Publishers, 2003, ISBN 0865714827
• David Goodstein, Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil, W.W. Norton & Company, 2004, ISBN 0393058573
• Stephen Leeb and Donna Leeb, The Oil Factor: How Oil Controls the Economy and Your Financial Future, Warner Books, 2004, ISBN 0446533173
• Amory B. Lovins, E. Kyle Datta, Odd-Even Bustnes, Jonathan G. Koomey, Nathan J. Glasgow, Winning the Oil Endgame: Innovation for Profits, Jobs, and Security, Rocky Mountain Institute, 2004, ISBN 1881071103
• Jeremy Rifkin, The Hydrogen Economy: After Oil, Clean Energy From a Fuel-Cell-Driven Global Hydrogen Web, Blackwell Publishers, 2002, ISBN 0745630421
• Paul Roberts, The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New World, Houghton Mifflin, 2004, ISBN 0618239774
• Paul Roberts, Last Stop Gas, Harper's Magazine, August 2004, pp. 71-72
• Documentary film The End of Suburbia
• Dismissal of the Claims of a Biological Connection for Natural Petroleum.
• Howard James Kunstler The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century, Atlantic Monthly Press, 2005, ISBN 0871138883
• Matthew R. Simmons, Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy, Wiley, 2005, ISBN 047173876X

ACT Peak Oil Discussion Group http://www.act-peakoil.org/ February 4 is the 35th day of the year in the Gregorian Calendar. ... 1949 is a common year starting on Saturday. ... Colin J. Campbell, Ph. ... An issue of Harpers Magazine from 1905 Another issue, from November 2004 Harpers Magazine (or simply Harpers) is a monthly general-interest magazine covering literature, politics, culture, and the arts. ...

External links

• Peak Oil NZ
• Peak Oil News
• Peak Oil in the News: CNN, MSNBC, AP, New York Times, Washington Post, etc.
• Peak Oil Wiki
• Big Picture TV Free video clip of petroleum geologist Colin Campbell discussing peak oil
• Energy Bulletin - Peak oil related news stories
• Peak oil forum
• Dwindling Supply vs. Abundant Oil: A Timely Debate - General Session of the Society of Petroleum Engineers 2004
• The Bioregional Revolution - Peak oil organization promoting bioregionalism
• New Peak Oil Website - online videos, articles and statistics.
• Peak Oil reading list - Books, articles, web sites and more
• Energy news and views
• Dry Dipstick - A Peak Oil metadirectory

Hubbert theory advocacy and research

Peak oil related websites

• ASPO, Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
• ASPO Ireland Dr Colin Campbell's Office
• ODAC, Oil Depletion Analysis Centre independent, UK education charity
• Peak Oil NZ
• PowerSwitch.org.uk - Raising awareness of Britain's Energy Future
• Chevron's Peak Oil Website
• PeakOilAction people working together to raise awareness of oil depletion, prepare for post petroleum age
• International Peak Oil Awareness Meetup meet others in your area on 2nd Wednesday of month
• Peak oil and Technocracy
• Oilcrash.com
• Hubbert Peak of Oil Production
• Energy Crisis/Shortage, English, German
• Culture Change, promotes lifestyle change as a reponse to the Hubbert peak
• Ecological Basis for Great Change
• Life After The Oil Crash
• Wolf at the Door
• Die Off
• Planet for Life
• From the Wilderness
• Before The Wells Run Dry - Analysis about the oil situation from Feasta.org, an Irish website
• Facts on the inevitable world-wide energy transition.
• biography of Dr Hubbert,
• Post Carbon Institute
• The End of Suburbia
• Global Public Media
• Global Public Media: Video & Sound interviews
• Sign the Oil Peak and Decline Declaration!
• M. King Hubbert Center for Petroleum Supply Studies
• OilEmpire.US: 9/11 and Peak Oil
• Evaluating Peak Oil scenarios - will we use the remaining oil for solar panels or fighter planes?
• Permatopia.com - a graceful end to cheap oil
• Alt-E - Virtual watering hole for Alaskans groping their way into a future characterized by increasing high-quality primary-energy-source scarcity, i.e., a "bottleneck" future.
• Peak Oil Aware Shop - Strong, clear graphics to raise awareness of peak oil, printed t-shirts, stickers, buttons etc
• Peak Oil Aware Graphics - Stong, clear graphics to raise awareness of peak oil, free for download for non-commercial use.
• Links to 50 Recent News Articles on Peak Oil

Reports/essays/lectures

• The unsustainability of full employment and cheap energy
• UK Survival in the 21st Century
• Review: Oil-based technology and economy - prospects for the future The Danish Board of Technology (Teknologi-radet)
• M. King Hubbert on the Nature of Growth
• Peakoil conference 19-20 October 2004
• graph showing oil production in lower 48 US states following Hubbert's predictions
• Peak Oil presentation by Dr. Campbell, TU Clausthal
• Rep. Prof. Roscoe Bartlett's hour long Peak Oil presentation to (an empty) U.S. House of Representatives
• An Introduction to Peak Oil by Jim Bliss
• Oil: Burnt Out? theWatt.com article

Articles

• "The End of Cheap Oil", Colin Campbell & Jean Laherrère on Peak Oil Scientific American article
• Is the world's oil running out fast? BBC news article
• Oil: Is the end at hand? CNN article
• The end of oil is closer than you think The Guardian article
• The End of Oil? MIT Technology Review article
• David Goodstein on Peak Oil MSNBC news article
• How long will the world's oil last? MSNBC news article
• The End of Cheap Oil National Geographic article
• Will The End of Oil Mean The End of America? Common Dreams NewsCenter article
• Top Saudi Says Kingdom Has Plenty of Oil "261 billion barrels in reserve..."

Forums/Blogs

• Peak Oil News Blog
• Peak Energy Blog (bg)
• mobjectivist Blog
• Resource Insights Blog
• Peak Energy Blog (mg)
• James Howard Kunstler
• Yahoo Group: Running on Empty
• The Oil Drum
• Ontic - PowerLess NZ
• Peakoil.com.
• Peak Oil Optimist
• How much peak-oil is being talked about
• Flavor8: Energy Crisis News
• The Energy Blog
• Alternate Energy Blogspot.
• theWatt Energy News and Discussion

Hubbert theory criticisms

• Peak Oil -- NOT! - Directory page addresses the theory in circulation that oil is not solely of organic origin, but that there may be another, inexhaustible mode of origin from deeper in the crust, involving magma.
• Will We Run Out of Energy? by Mark Brandly
• Top Saudi Says Kingdom Has Plenty of Oil "261 billion barrels in reserve..."
• Why Peak Oil will be a non-event.
• The New Pessimism about Petroleum Resources: Debunking the Hubbert Model (and Hubbert Modelers)
• The end of the age of oil?
• Known Saudi Arabian Oil Reserves Tripled
• Peak production in the news again
• International Energy Agency press release
• Oil shale back in the picture
• Dismissal of the Claims of a Biological Connection for Natural Petroleum.
• Sustainable Oil? (5-25-04 WorldNet Daily)
• More Evidence for Sustainable Oil (7-10-04 rense.com)
• Abiogenic Gas Debate 11:2002 (EXPLORER)
• Unconventional Ideas About Unconventional Gas (Society of Petroleum Engineers)
• Oil recovery technology, Nexial Institute (NEXIT), Dr. James H. L. Lawler Integrated system promising virtual total recovery, in excess of 95%
• Texas Research Institute Promises a Way Out of the Energy Crisis
• Peak Oil Debunked

References

• Bentley, R.W. (2002). Global oil & gas depletion: an overview. Energy Policy 30, 189–205
• Greene, D.L. & J.L. Hopson. (2003). Running Out of and Into Oil: Analyzing Global Depletion and Transition Through 2050 ORNL/TM-2003/259, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, Octobe
• Economists Challenge Causal Link Between Oil Shocks And Recessions (August 30, 2004). Middle East Economic Survey VOL. XLVII No 35
• Maugeri, Leonardo (2004). Oil: Never Cry Wolf--Why the Petroleum Age Is Far from over. Science 304, 1114-1115