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Biological
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There is very limited open-source information indicating that Egypt is pursuing a biological weapons (BW) program. The country acceded to the Geneva Protocol on December 6, 1928 and the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BWC) on April 10, 1972. Most assessments by security experts indicate that while Egypt has a strong technical base in applied microbiology, it lacks the necessary infrastructure for developing or producing BW. Furthermore, there is no corroborated open-source evidence of any organized BW-related research activity. There have, however, been some allegations by Israel that Egypt is conducting research to develop anthrax and plague bacteria, botulinum toxin, and Rift Valley fever virus for military purposes. The Egyptian government strongly denies these accusations.
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The U.S. Departments of State and Defense report that Soviet biological facilities once existed in Ukraine. None, however, is active today. Ukraine has publicly stated that it views biological weapons proliferation as a threat to its own security. The country does not have a biological warfare program and appears to have no intention of establishing one. Ukraine is a signatory to the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BWC), which it ratified in 1975, and a member of the Australia Group. Under an August 2005 U.S.-Ukraine agreement, the United States will fund security upgrades at key Ukrainian biological institutes where dangerous microbes are kept.
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Chemical
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Egypt is one of the few countries known to have employed chemical weapons against its enemies in the 20th century. Despite this history of use and contemporary concerns regarding the possession and proliferation of chemical weapons there is relatively little open-source information concerning Egypt's chemical warfare (CW) programs. There is strong evidence that during their intervention in the Yemen Civil War (1963-1967) Egyptian forces employed bombs and artillery shells filled with phosgene and mustard against the Royalist troops and civilians in North Yemen. Egypt appears to have inherited stocks of phosgene and mustard agents left behind by British forces when their occupation of Egypt ended in 1954. Egypt definitely received defensive CW assistance from the Soviet Union in the 1960s and early 1970s and might have received support for an offensive CW program. Since the 1980s Egypt has received training in defensive CW from the United States. Egypt maintains a substantial defensive CW capability and produces personal protective equipment and decontamination equipment for domestic use and export. It is strongly suspected, though not firmly established, that since the early 1960s Egypt has expanded its CW capability to include domestic production of nerve agents and psychoactive chemicals. By the early 1970s Egypt was believed to possess stocks of mustard, tabun and sarin. Reports in the 1990s claimed that Egypt had begun the production of VX nerve agent. Egypt possesses a sufficiently advanced chemical and industrial infrastructure to allow it to pursue the production of chemical weapons and their associated delivery systems if it chose to do so. Suspected Egyptian CW facilities include the Abu-Za'abal Company for Chemicals and Insecticides and the Abu Za'abal Company for Specialty Chemicals; there may be others. Egypt has been involved in at least two instances of chemical weapons related proliferation. The first case was the direct provision of weaponized agents in bombs and artillery shells to Syria prior to the 1973 Yom Kippur war. In the 1980s Egypt was a conduit for the supply of precursor chemicals to Iraq’s CW program. These chemicals were often obtained from European suppliers and then exported to Iraq. It is possible that Egyptian personnel provided assistance to Iraqi forces in the development of tactics and doctrines for the use of CW. Egypt maintains commercial links with Syria and may supply Syria with many of its chemical needs thus directly or indirectly supporting that country’s own chemical weapons program. Despite the widely held belief that it maintains an offensive CW program Egypt is still able to import the materials and equipment that it requires for the functioning of its chemical industries. Egypt is not subject to military or economic sanctions but is subject to some restrictions associated with the enforcement of the provisions of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). Egypt acceded to the Geneva Protocol on December 6, 1928, but remains outside the CWC. The Egyptian government publicly denies developing, acquiring, or producing CW but has indicated that it will not accede to the CWC until questions regarding Israel’s nuclear weapons are addressed.
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In January 1992, Russian President Boris Yeltsin declared that all former Soviet chemical weapons had been moved to Russia. According to the U.S. Department of Defense, Ukraine does not have a chemical warfare program, nor does it plan to establish one. Ukraine is a State Party to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), which it ratified in 1998. Ukraine joined the Australia Group in April 2005.
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Missile
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Egypt's missile program began in earnest in the 1960s. With West German assistance, Egypt began developing three missile systems: al-Zafar (375-km range), al-Kahir (600-km range) and al-Raid (1,000-km range); however, with the withdrawal of West German assistance in 1966, these programs were abandoned. In the 1980s, Egypt aligned with Iraq and Argentina in an effort to develop a short-range, solid-fueled missile known in Argentina as Condor-II and in Iraq as Badr-2000 (the internal Egyptian designation is not known publicly). In 1989, Cairo ended the cooperative relationship with Baghdad, but it is likely that domestic-based efforts continue on this missile. Egypt has been more successful in its pursuit of Scud-B and perhaps Scud-C manufacturing capabilities. With the assistance of North Korea, Egypt was able to develop an indigenous Scud-B production capability, and there are reports that it has developed an enhanced Scud-C missile. In 2001, Egypt reportedly signed an agreement with North Korea to purchase its 1000km-range Nodong missile system. Egypt is not a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR).
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Ukraine inherited significant ICBM design and production capabilities from the Soviet Union. These included the Pivdenne (formerly Yuzhnoye) Design Bureau, responsible for the design of the SS-18 and the SS-24 ICBMs, and the Pivdenmash (formerly Yuzhmash) Machine-Building Plant, which produced a wide range of Soviet ICBMs, including the SS-18 and SS-24. Other former Soviet missile-industrial complex facilities in Ukraine include the Pavlohrad Chemical and Mechanical Plants, which were also involved in ICBM manufacture, and the Khartron Production Association, which produced guidance systems. These enterprises have since become involved in a variety of space projects, including converting SS-18 ICBMs to space launch vehicles (SLVs) in cooperation with Russian firms, participating in the international Sea Launch program, and cooperating with Russian enterprises on new SLV designs. In July of 2003, the Ukrainian National Space Agency sold 30 RS-18 ICBMs to Russia and simultaneously promised to destroy 55 Soviet-era missile silos. In March 2004, Ukraine joined the Hague Code of Conduct Against Ballistic Missile Proliferation (HCOC) which has been in effect since November 2002 and signed by over 100 countries.
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Nuclear
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Egypt's efforts to develop nuclear technology likely began in the late 1950s. The program is housed at the Inshas Nuclear Research Center, 40 km outside of Cairo. Inshas hosts a Soviet-supplied 2 MW research reactor that went critical in 1961, and an Argentine-supplied 22 MW light water research reactor that went critical in 1997. Cairo has long expressed the desire to import power-generation reactors, but thus far these efforts have proven unsuccessful. In the 1970s, there was apparently a debate within Egypt about pursuing a weapons capability and, as part of that effort, developing an independent fuel cycle. However, it appears that no serious work was done towards these ends. In 1981, Egypt acceded to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and, one year later, began implementing the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) comprehensive safeguards. Egypt has been a vocal critic of the NPT—beginning notably at the 1995 Review and Extension Conference—and has supported a nuclear weapons free zone in the Middle East, citing Israel's non-ascension to the NPT as an obstacle to this process.
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Upon the breakup of the Soviet Union, Ukraine inherited a considerable nuclear potential, in the form of 176 SS-19 and SS-24 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs; 1,240 warheads) and 44 strategic bombers. In addition, there were an unspecified number of tactical nuclear warheads on its territory. However, in spite of some domestic opposition, Ukraine gradually rid itself of its nuclear weapon inheritance by transferring both tactical and strategic warheads to Russia (the last warheads were transferred by June 1996 in return for Russian compensation in the form of fuel for Ukraine’s nuclear power reactors) and eliminating missiles, missile silos, and strategic bombers on its territory. Ukraine also acceded to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I) and joined the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as non-nuclear weapon state. By January 2002, all strategic bombers on Ukraine’s territory had been either dismantled, transferred to Russia, or converted to non-military use; all ICBMs had been extracted from the silos and either eliminated or disassembled pending elimination; and all ICBM silos had been eliminated.
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Overview
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A recipient of substantial U.S. military aid, Egypt does not appear to be aggressively pursuing nonconventional weapons capabilities at this time. Nonetheless, it is one of the few countries that has used chemical weapons in warfare (Yemen Civil War, 1963-1967) and is suspected of maintaining a chemical warfare (CW) capability, as well as a moderately advanced missile program. Cairo has been a leader in promoting a Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone (WMDFZ) in the Middle East and the strongest critic of Israel's nuclear weapons program, linking its refusal to sign the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) to Israel's nonparticipation in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
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Ukraine inherited a considerable number of nuclear warheads, missiles, and missile production facilities when the Soviet Union collapsed. In its first decade of independence, Ukraine transferred all nuclear warheads to Russia and eliminated missiles, missile silos, and strategic bombers on its territory. All chemical weapons were returned to Russia for elimination by January 1992. Ukraine possesses no biological weapons and is cooperating with the United States on measures to upgrade security at biological institutes that house dangerous microbes.
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